Home Market Releases for March 5th, 2019

March 6th, 2019

It’s a weird week at the box office. There are no massive releases; Creed II, is by far the biggest release of the week. However, there are a ton of releases that would make the regular list in a normal week, but have been pushed into the Secondary Blu-ray list, mainly because I have nothing to say about them. There are some contenders for Pick of the Week, including The Favourite on Blu-ray Combo Pack and Liz and the Blue Bird on Blu-ray. It came down to a literally coin-toss here and The Favourite won. More...

2018 Awards Season: Oscars: And the Winner is... Green Book for Best Picture

February 24th, 2019

It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. We will announce the winners and have our reactions as they happen, while keeping track of how our readers did in predicting the outcomes. More...

2018 Awards Season: Oscars Nominations: Final Look

February 24th, 2019

It’s Oscar Day, and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. in Italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between. For example, I would be happy with half of the Best Picture nominees winning. More...

2018 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Picture

February 21st, 2019

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We end with the biggest award of the night: Best Picture. I don’t know who’s going to win. I think I know who the favorite is, but there are five films here that could win and I wouldn’t really be surprised. More...

Home Market Releases for February 19th, 2019

February 20th, 2019

The fall smash hits and the Oscar contenders are starting to come out in full force, making it a great time on the home market. This week, we have one of the biggest hits of the fall, A Star is Born; one of the best movies of the year, Can You Ever Forgive Me?; and the Anime that arguably solidified Moe as powerhouse genre, K-ON: Complete Collection Premium Box Set. Of the three, I like K-ON the most, but I admit that price will scare away a lot of people, so Can You Ever Forgive Me? is the better choice for Pick of the Week. More...

Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Bohemian Rhapsody

February 16th, 2019

Bohemian Rhapsody is a monster hit earning more than $200 million domestically and $800 million worldwide. It has also been one of the biggest Awards Season players; in fact, some consider it the favorite to win the Best Picture Oscar. On the other hand, its reviews are barely in the overall positive level. Are the moviegoers and Awards Season voters right and the critics too cynical? Or is there something other than the movie itself that is winning people over? More...

2018 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Leading Actor

February 14th, 2019

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we look at the four acting categories, continuing with Best Lead Actor. Like the Best Supporting Actor category, there is a favorite here, but an upset wouldn’t be that shocking. More...

Home Market Releases for February 12th, 2019

February 13th, 2019

It’s a shallow week on the home market. That said, Bohemian Rhapsody was a monster hit, especially internationally. It isn’t a Pick of the Week contender, but we do have a trio of contenders: At Eternity’s Gate, Audition, and Shoplifters. It’s a close race, but Shoplifters came out on top. More...

2018 - Awards Season: BAFTA - Winners

February 11th, 2019

The BAFTA winners were announced and The Favorite led the way with 7 wins. Like I mentioned before, understandably, the BAFTAs tend to favor British films and this can lessen their ability to predict Oscar winners and The Favorite is such a British Film that they managed to spell the word correctly. That doesn’t mean there are no lessons we can learn from these results. More...

International Box Office: Glass Sparkles on Top

January 24th, 2019

Glass opened in first place on the international chart with $48.5 million in 55 markets. Its biggest market was Russia, where it opened with $5.19 million on 1,381 screens. On the other hand, arguably its best market was Mexico, where it earned $4.15 million over the weekend for a total opening of $4.39 million. This is more than double the $2.02 million Split opened with and the record for M. Night Shyamalan in that market. On the down side, the film has practically done its international run and only has China ahead. More...

Home Market Releases for January 22nd, 2019

January 24th, 2019

We’re getting close to the monster hits from fall finally coming out on the home market. Closer, but we are not quite there yet. This week’s biggest release is First Man, but it is not the best. The race for Pick of the Week came down to three contenders: Dirty Rotten Scoundrels, The Hate U Give, and JoJo’s Bizarre Adventure: Set Three. It was a close race, but in the end The Hate U Give won out. More...

2018 Awards Season: Oscar Nominations

January 23rd, 2019

The Oscar nominations were announced yesterday starting at just after 5 am Pacific time. They do this every year for reasons no one has been able to adequately explain to me. Because it was the day after a long weekend, it took a bit of time to get all the normal work done and digest the results. And there were some interesting results to digest. No one film led the way with total nominations, as two films, The Favourite and Roma tied with 10 nominations each. More...

2018 - Awards Season: PGA - Winners

January 20th, 2019

The Producers Guild of America announced their winners on Sunday night and the reactions to the winners range from “obviously” to “what were they thinking?” More...

Weekend Estimates: Glass Cracks, Still Tops Chart

January 20th, 2019

Glass’s box office potential has continued to drop and it is now estimated to earn $40.59 million over the three-day weekend and $47.06 million over four. The three-day opening is barely ahead of Split’s opening weekend and it is certainly lower in terms of tickets sold. Furthermore, Glass’s reviews and B-rating from CinemaScore are clearly already having a negative effect on the film’s legs. That said, the film only cost $20 million to make and while Universal is only handling the domestic run, it will break even just on its domestic numbers. The film’s international run is being handled by Disney, mostly, and they reported $48.5 million in 55 markets. The only market the film hasn’t opened in is China, which is the only international market Disney is not handling the distribution. According to Disney, the film is 13% ahead of Split internationally, but again, given its weaker reviews and its CinemaScore, its legs will likely be short enough that Glass will finish with less than its predecessor. Then again, it cost just $20 million to make and will likely hit $100 million worldwide on Monday, so everyone involved will be happy with this result. More...

2018 - Awards Season: BAFTA - Nominations

January 12th, 2019

The BAFTA nominations were announced and The Favorite led the way with 12 nominations. Sometimes the BAFTAs are a really good indicator for who will do well on Oscar night. Other times their bias to British films is too much. I think this year will be an example of the latter and I don't think The Favourite is suddenly an Oscar favorite. That said, there’s still some things you can learn here. More...

International Box Office: Bumblebee Bounces to the Top

January 9th, 2019

Bumblebee rose to first place with $82.7 million in 62 markets for totals of $192.0 million internationally and $289.6 million worldwide. It was able to earn first place thank in part due to its first place debut in China, where it earned $58.06 million over the weekend for a total opening of $59.26 million. The film needs to make more than $150 million in China to have a secure future there. Granted, films in China tend to have short legs, but Transformers has usually been the exception, so I’m cautiously optimistic for its chances. More...

2018 - Awards Season: Golden Globes - Winners

January 7th, 2019

The Golden Globes were the first major Awards Season ceremony this year handing out the hardware on Sunday night. Are last night’s events a strong indicator for the Oscars? I hope not! Certainly not in all categories, as there were some puzzling results last night. More...

2018 - Awards Season: PGA - Nominations

January 4th, 2019

The Producers Guild of America announced their nominations in the theatrical categories today and there are some trends building. However, there are also some questions generated after these nominations were announced. More...

International Box Office: Aquaman Tops Competition by $100 million

December 19th, 2018

Aquaman expanded worldwide at the weekend, earning $131.3 million on 44,134 screens in 43 markets for a two-week total of $266.4 million on the international market. It debuted in over 40 markets, but China was still the dominant force, as it pulled in $54.24 million on 24,528 screens there over the weekend for a two-week total of $189.30 million. A 42% drop-off is amazing for China, which is know for sharp sophomore declines, and the film is already the fourth-biggest super hero film in that market. On the other hand, the film’s biggest opening came in Mexico, where it earned $6.62 million over the weekend for a total opening of $8.00 million there. This is significantly below the openings of both Wonder Woman and Justice League. Overall, Aquaman beat those films more often then not, sometimes by rather large margins. For example, it earned $7.8 million on 3,110 screens in Russia, which was more than double Wonder Woman’s opening in that market. However, at this point, we can safely say China will contribute a disproportionate share of its international box office. More...

2018 - Awards Season: SAG - Nominations

December 12th, 2018

The Screen Actors Guild were the third group to announce their nominations for this awards season. There’s not a lot of surprises on this week’s list. A Star is Born led the way with four nominations, while The Favourite was right behind with three. More...

International Box Office: Aquaman Floods China

December 12th, 2018

Aquaman debuted in China dominating the market with $92.98 million over the weekend for a total opening of $94.28 million. This is roughly as much as the rest of the top five made combined. It is also certainly more than it will open with domestically. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: The Calm before the Winter Storm

December 11th, 2018

There were no new releases / expansions / re-releases in the top five over the weekend. In fact, there were no such films in the top ten. Not a single film in the top five even switched positions, so there’s almost nothing to talk about. Ralph Breaks the Internet held on a tiny bit better than predicted, but that didn’t stop the overall box office falling 27% from last weekend to $84 million. This is still ahead of the same weekend last year, but by a tiny 1.5% margin. Year-to-date, 2018’s margin over 2017 barely changed and currently sits at 10.7% or $1.04 billion at $10.82 billion to $9.77 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Christmas Comes Early for Animation

December 9th, 2018

Both animated films are doing great at the box office with Ralph Breaks the Internet matching our prediction nearly perfectly with a studio estimate of $16.1 million over the weekend, which would give it a running tally of $140.9 million. Internationally, the film has barely opened in half the world earning $18.0 million over the weekend for a total of $117.3 million. This includes a first place debut in Spain with $4.6 million over the five-day weekend. Its next major market isn’t until December 21st when it opens in Japan, while it is a Boxing Day release in Australia. More...

Friday Estimates: Box Office Sinks a Little Deeper

December 8th, 2018

It looks like it will be another soft weekend at the box office. The lack of new releases is not helping holdovers too much, but most of the top five is on pace to match expectations, more or less. For example, Ralph Breaks the Internet pulled in $3.52 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $15 million over the weekend. This is within a rounding error of our prediction and nothing to panic about. Granted, the film is falling behind Coco’s pace, while $200 million domestically is becoming a more difficult goal, but Disney could give it a push over the top if it wants to. More...

2018 - Awards Season: Golden Globes - Nominations

December 6th, 2018

The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. It is still very early in the year and the predictive value of the Golden Globes is a little suspect, but there are still some things to learn here. For example Vice led the way with six nominations, so its Oscar chances have gone up, but don’t expect it to lead the way when the Oscars nominations are announced. More...

Weekend Predictions: Short List of New Releases

December 6th, 2018

The first weekend of December is usually a terrible weekend to release a new film. However, that’s because it is usually the first weekend after Thanksgiving long weekend. This year this is not the case, but there are still no wide releases to talk about. The closest to a new release is Schindler’s List, which is getting a semi-wide release. It has a slim chance at reaching the top ten, but I wouldn’t bet on it. This means the top five this week will be identical the top five from last weekend with Ralph Breaks the Internet leading the way. This weekend last year, Coco remained in top spot with $18.45 million, while the only wide release was Just Getting Started, which missed the Mendoza Line. I think 2018 will win in the year-over-year competition, but not by a lot. More...

International Box Office: Bohemian Rhapsody Challenges Grindelwald for Top Spot

December 5th, 2018

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald remained in first place on the international chart with $40.8 million on 18,922 screens in 80 markets for totals of $386.9 million internationally and $521.4 million worldwide. Its biggest market of the weekend was Japan, where it added $7.5 million to its running tally, which now sits at $25.6 million. Its biggest market overall is China, where it has $56.65 million, including $2.37 million this past weekend, followed by the U.K. with $33.8 million, including $3.5 million this past weekend. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Ralph Wins, Most Holdovers Hold Strong

December 4th, 2018

The post-holiday weekend matched expectations, more or less. Ralph Breaks the Internet led the way with $25.57 million over the weekend. The Possession of Hannah Grace opened better than expected and earned more than it cost to make, so if it can find an audience on the home market, it could break even. Overall, the box office fell almost exactly $100 million from last weekend, but it is a post holiday weekend, so this 47% drop-off is not unexpected. More importantly, this is 9.5% above the same weekend last year, which continues 2018’s winning streak. 2018’s lead over 2017 is basically within a rounding error of where it was last week at $10.8 million / $1.05 billion at $10.70 billion to $9.65 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Ralph Slips, Still Strong, Hannah Tops Expectations, Still Soft

December 2nd, 2018

Ralph Breaks the Internet will retain top spot on the weekend box office chart with an estimated $25.8 million for a two-week total of $119.3 million. Granted, this is lower than we predicted, but not so much lower than anyone at Disney should be panicking. Internationally, the film added an estimated $33.7 million in 27 markets, lifting its international total to $87.7 million after two weeks of release. Its only major market opening of the weekend was the U.K. where it reportedly earned $5.2 million. This is less than Wreck-It Ralph opened with, but that film debuted during the school holidays, so it got a boost. Ralph Breaks the Internet should have longer than average legs thanks to Christmas, but I don’t think it will match its predecessor in this market. More...

Friday Estimates: Ralph has a mostly Graceful Decline

December 1st, 2018

Ralph Breaks the Internet remained in top spot on the box office chart on Friday earning $5.74 million. This is 74% lower than its opening Friday; granted, that was a holiday, so a sharp decline was practically guranteed, but this is still sharper than anticipated. Look for $25 million over the weekend, which is weaker than our prediction and puts $200 million in jeopardy. It will need help over the Christmas break to get there. More...

Weekend Predictions: New Releases don’t look Very Graceful

November 29th, 2018

It’s the weekend after Thanksgiving long weekend, which is one of the worst weekends for a wide release. This weekend, The Possession of Hannah Grace is the only new release and it is only opening in 1,700 theaters. This means Ralph Breaks the Internet will have no trouble remaining in first place. In fact, the top five from last weekend will remain nearly the same. A couple might switch places, but that’s it. This weekend last year, Coco remained in top spot with just under $28 million, while there were no new releases / semi-wide expansions that managed to grab a spot in the top five. Its holdovers vs. holdovers, which gives 2018 a small advantage. More...

International Box Office: Grindelwald Falls, But Remains in First Place

November 28th, 2018

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald fell more than $100 million to $83.3 million on 27,922 screens in 80 markets for totals of $322.2 million internationally and $439.2 million worldwide. Its only new market was Japan, where it debuted with $13 million on 1,008 screens. By comparison, the first Fantastic Beasts earned $15.5 million during its debut in that market. The film’s best holdover was Germany, where it added $7.5 million on 1,460 screens lifting its running tally to $23.2 million after two weeks of release. On the other hand, it plummeted 82% during its second weekend in China down to just $6.44 million for a two-week total of $52.11 million. The film likely won’t reach $500 million internationally and its worldwide total might be as much as $200 million shy of its predecessor. This is still enough to be profitable, but there is reason to be concerned about the franchise going forward. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Ralph, Creed Lead Box Office, Break Records

November 27th, 2018

The weekend box office was more lucrative than predicted with both Ralph Breaks the Internet and Creed II breaking records. Depending on how technical you want to be. Ralph Breaks the Internet led the way with $55.67 million over the three-day weekend and $84.47 million over five. This is technically the record for biggest Thanksgiving opening, as Frozen had a prestige opening the weekend before and only expanded wide on Thanksgiving. Nearly every other film on this week’s list also topped predictions helping this weekend to rise 26% from last weekend hitting $216 million over the three-day period. This was also 15% higher than the same weekend last year, which is a more important result. I was really expecting 2018’s lead over 2017 to be down significantly from its peak; however, instead it has stretched its lead to $1.04 billion or 11% at $10.53 billion to $9.49 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Ralph Wrecks Predictions, Technically Sets Record

November 25th, 2018

While Thanksgiving long weekend wasn’t as lucrative as earlier figures suggested, estimates are still better than our predictions. For example, Ralph Breaks the Internet should open with $55.67 million over the three-day weekend for a five-day opening of $84.47 million. This is technically the record for biggest Thanksgiving opening, as Frozen had a prestige opening the weekend before and only expanded wide on Thanksgiving. Internationally, the film reportedly made $41.5 million during its opening weekend. This doesn’t sound like a lot, but it is only playing in about a third of international markets, and only three major markets. It opened with an estimated $19.5 million in China, while it was also dominant in Mexico ($6.3 million) and Russia ($5.7 million). Overall, the film nearly tripled Wreck-it Ralph’s openings in the same markets. The film won’t have the same legs, as sequels almost never do, but this is still an amazing start and it is clearly on pace for $600 million worldwide. More...

Friday Estimates: Ralph Slips Below Moana’s Pace, Still a Monster Hit

November 24th, 2018

Ralph Breaks the Internet again led the way on Friday with $21.74 million for a three-day total $50.54 million. Good news: It is still on pace to top our prediction; in fact, depending on when you read this on Saturday, it might have already done so. At this point, a five-day opening of $85 million seems like a safe bet. Bad news: it has fallen behind Moana’s daily pace, despite a much faster start, so it will definitely have weaker legs. It should still have no problem getting to $200 million domestically and still is in a race with Dr Seuss’ The Grinch for biggest hit of November. It’s just no longer a record-setting opening. More...

Weekend Prediction: Will Ralph Wreck the Competition?

November 21st, 2018

It’s Thanksgiving long weekend, which means it is officially the start of the holiday blockbuster season. This year, three films are opening wide hoping to become hits. One of them, Ralph Breaks the Internet, could become the biggest hit of the month. Creed II is expected to top its predecessor during its five-day opening. Robin Hood is just hoping not to bomb in theaters. Both Green Book and The Front Runner were scheduled to expand wide, but neither will. In fact, The Front Runner isn’t even expanding semi-wide. This weekend last year, Coco opened with nearly $73 million during its five day weekend. Ralph Breaks the Internet likely won’t earn that much over the weekend, but it should come close. Additionally, Justice League earned $60 million during the five-day frame, which is very likely better than Creed II will perform. However, after that point, 2018’s depth becomes stronger than 2017’s depth and we should earn the small win in the year-over-year competition. More...

International Box Office: Grindelwald Has Quarter Billion Dollar Global Debut

November 20th, 2018

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald started its international run with $191.5 million on 50,865 screens in 79 markets for a worldwide debut of $253.7 million. Its largest opening was in China, but it had to settle for second place there with $36.68 million on 22,008 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $37.53 million. It had more impressive debuts in the U.K. ($16.3 million on 1,823 screens) and in Russia ($12.36 million on 1,623). The film had the best opening in the Harry Potter franchise in 21 markets, but overall, it was only 3% ahead of Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them in the same markets. Its much weaker reviews will likely lead to shorter legs, but even so, it should still have no problem getting to $600 million worldwide and becoming Warner Bros.’ biggest hit of the year. If the next installment in the franchise falls just as much, then the studio will have reason to be concerned. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Grindelwald Debuts on Top, but Pales Compared to Harry Potter

November 19th, 2018

As expected, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald topped the weekend box office chart; however, it failed to meet expectations by about 10%. Additionally, neither Instant Family nor Widows matched expectations and this hurt the overall box office, which fell 2.9% from last weekend to $172 million. More importantly, this is 14% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 has reached $10 billion and now has a running tally of $10.18 billion. This is 11% or $1.01 billion ahead of last year’s pace. More...

Weekend Estimates: Grindelwald Fails to Match Expectations, at least Domestically

November 18th, 2018

As expected, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald topped the chart over the weekend. However, the opening is weaker than expected with an estimated $62.2 million. Additionally, it has weaker reviews (40% vs. 74%) compared to Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them; a worse CinemaScore (B plus vs. A); and a lower internal multiplier (2.43 vs. 2.51), so this film's legs will likely be much shorter and getting to $200 million might be asking too much. On the other hand, the film has an estimated $191 million internationally, so there’s no reason to worry for Warner Bros., as this movie will be fantastically profitable in the end. More...

Friday Estimates: Grindelwald Comes in First, but Doesn’t have a Fantastic Friday

November 17th, 2018

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald opened in first place with $25.7 million on Friday. The film actually had better previews than Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, but its Friday was 13% below its predecessor. This is a bad sign for its legs. Additionally, its reviews fell to just 40% positive, while it only managed a B plus from CinemaScore. On the positive side, the film is doing much better internationally and the film already has $74.3 million in just two days of international release. It will break even on just its international numbers, but the film’s poor reception with critics and moviegoers could hurt the rest of the installments in the Fantastic Beasts franchise. More...

Weekend Prediction: Is Grindelwald Committing Crimes against the Harry Potter Franchise?

November 15th, 2018

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald is the latest installment in the Harry Potter franchise, but sadly, its reviews are, by far, the worst in the franchise. It should still have no trouble earning first place and will very likely break even just on its international numbers, but this is still troubling for its future. The second biggest release of the week is Instant Family and its reviews are good, but not great. They are certainly fine for a family comedy. Widows is the best-reviewed new release, but its buzz is quiet enough that it will barely finish in the top five. Meanwhile, A Private War is expanding nationwide and that could help it earn a spot in the top ten, but I wouldn’t bet on it. This weekend last year, Justice League opened with $93.84 million, while Wonder debuted in second place with $27.55 million. Add in The Star’s $9.81 million opening and the three wide releases pulled in $130 million. There’s no way the new releases this year will match that and 2018 will likely lose in the year-over-year comparison. More...

International Box Office: Venom Sinks its Teeth into China

November 14th, 2018

Venom roared into first place with $117.30 million on 44,833 screens in 85 markets for totals of $467.71 million internationally and $674.01 million worldwide. Nearly all of the film’s weekend haul came from China, where it made $107.85 million in 40,000 theaters over the weekend for a total opening of $110.40 million. Whoever made the decision to recut the movie to a PG-13 rating feels like a genius after this result. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Grinch Matches Expectations, Incredibles’ Record Safe for Now

November 12th, 2018

The weekend box office had a few success stories and a couple of misses. Dr Seuss’ The Grinch was one of the success stories with $67.57 million, which matches predictions perfectly. The other two new wide releases were less successful. Overlord did okay, but it will need a lot of help to break even any time soon. On the other hand, The Girl in the Spider’s Web likely won’t break even. The overall box office rose 15% from last weekend hitting $167 million. This is 11% more from the same weekend last year. I really wasn’t expecting 2018’s losing streak to end after just one weekend. This is great news. 2018’s lead over 2017 is practically the same as it was last weekend at $1.01 billion or 11% at $9.95 billion to $8.94 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Grinch Grabs First Place, Bohemian Sings a Long Note

November 11th, 2018

The Weekend box office is on par with expectations, for the most part. Dr Seuss’ The Grinch is dominating the box office chart with an estimated $66.0 million debut. This isn’t the record for biggest November weekend for an animated film, but it is reasonably close. Its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore suggest reasonably long legs at the box office. In fact, with the holidays coming up, it has an outside chance at $200 million. Internationally, its start is a little more muted at $12.7 million in 23 markets, including $6.53 in 559 theaters in the U.K. That’s equivalent to a $35 million opening here, given the relative size of the two markets. More...

Friday Estimates: Grinch Steals Top Spot, but Doesn’t have Incredible Start

November 10th, 2018

Dr Seuss’ The Grinch debuted in first place on Friday with $18.67 million. This is not quite as good as we were originally expecting, but better than its previews would indicate. This is good news for the film’s long term chances. Its reviews having fallen below the overall positive level. It did earn an A minus from CinemaScore, which is good for a family film, but not great. Universal expects the film to earn $67 million over the weekend, which is close enough to our $68 million prediction to be a success. It is also very close to its $75 million production budget. More...

Weekend Prediction: Will Grinch Spread the Holiday Cheer?

November 8th, 2018

Dr Seuss’ The Grinch could be the biggest hit of the month, if it gets off to a fast start this weekend. There is some good news, as it could break The Incredibles’ record for November weekend for an animated film. This weekend, The Girl in the Spider’s Web and Overlord are both aiming to become midlevel hits. I’m not sure either will get there. Their buzz hasn’t grown as their release date has neared, which is troubling. This does mean Bohemian Rhapsody will very likely earn a solid second place, while The Nutcracker and the Four Realms has a shot at third. This weekend last year, Thor: Ragnarok earned more than $57 million during its second weekend of release, while the combined openings of Daddy’s Home 2 and Murder on the Orient Express were even better. 2018 should be better on top, but it won’t have the same depth leading to a loss in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Theater Averages: Boy Erased Writes its Way to the Top

November 7th, 2018

Boy Erased led the way on the theater average chart earning an average of $41,411 in five theaters. This was nearly three times the second place film, A Private War, which earned an average of $15,123 in four theaters. The only other film in the $10,000 club was the overall box office leader, Bohemian Rhapsody, with an average of $12,765. More...

International Box Office: Rhapsody Gets the Whole World Singing

November 7th, 2018

Bohemian Rhapsody rose to first place with $72.5 million in 64 markets for an early international total of $91.7 million. This week it opened in first place in both Mexico ($5.33 million) and Australia ($4.87 million). On the other hand, it only earned second place during its debut in South Korea with $4.40 million on 936 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.65 million. The film only fell 40% during its second weekend in the U.K. earning $7.56 million in 681 theaters for a two-week total of $26.88 million. More...

Weekend Estimates: Bohemian has a Bourgeoisie Debut with $50 million

November 4th, 2018

Fox is projecting a $50 million opening for Bohemian Rhapsody over the weekend. When I see a studio estimate a number like that, I always assume they overestimated, and not just because it topped predictions, because a “$50 million opening weekend” sounds a lot better than a “$49 million opening weekend” and getting that one day of extra hype could help its box office chances. It would require a 2.71 internal multiplier to get there, which would be a little high for a film like this. Its reviews are good, but not great, while audience scores are better at 4.5 out of 5 from PostTrak and an A from CinemaScore. More...

Friday Estimates: Bohemian Rhapsody makes the Box Office Sing

November 3rd, 2018

Bohemian Rhapsody dominated the Friday box office chart with $18.4 million. This is better than our prediction, but not quite as good as some were expecting after Thursday’s previews. Its reviews are good, but not great, while it earned an A from CinemaScore and a 4.5 out of 5 from PostTrak, so audiences clearly like the film more than critics did. The film could come close to $50 million over the weekend, but it probably won’t quite get there. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Queen has Star-Making Debut with $3.9 million

November 2nd, 2018

Bohemian Rhapsody started its domestic run with $3.9 million in previews, which is in line with our prediction, for the most part. Compared to A Star is Born, it is better or worse, depending on how you look at things. A Star is Born had three days of previews earning $4.5 million in total, but if you only look at Thursday night, its previews were $3.2 million. Had the film only had one day of previews, it would have earned somewhere in-between those two results. Additionally, Bohemian Rhapsody’s reviews are weaker than A Star is Born’s reviews are and its target demographic is more likely to rush out opening night, so its legs won’t be as long. That said, it has an excellent chance at earning more than our $36 million prediction over the full weekend. More...

Weekend Prediction: Queen Biopic Looks to Start the Holiday Season Rocking

November 1st, 2018

November is the start of the holiday blockbuster season and practically every week from now until after Christmas is an excellent weekend to release a film. (The weekend after Thanksgiving is the only real exception.) This year, things don’t get off to a tremendously fast start, as there are no monster hits. That said, Bohemian Rhapsody could be a $100 million hit domestically. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms has to deal with terrible reviews and a lot of direct competition from bigger family films coming out this month. Finally, Nobody’s Fool is the first Tyler Perry movie not released by Lionsgate. It is not being heavily advertised as a Tyler Perry movie either. This weekend last year, Thor: Ragnarok opened with $122 million. No film opening this year will match that. All three films combined won’t match that. 2018's winning streak will end. More...

2018 Preview: November

November 1st, 2018

October continued 2018’s phenomenal box office run, for the most part. There were a couple of films that missed expectations by $10 million or more, but on the other hand, Vemon and Halloween were smash hits and are now the first and second biggest October debuts of all time. Furthermore, 2018’s lead over 2017 is, as I’m writing this, just shy of $1 billion and if 2018 can maintain this lead, it will be one of the biggest year-over-year increases of all time. It won’t. The fun times end now. Why is that? Last November was amazing. There were only eight wide releases, but six of them earned more than $100 million. Three of those hit $200 million, including Thor: Ragnarok, which earned over $300 million. This year, there are a lot more movies opening in November, but it is a case of quantity over quality. No movie is expected to come close to $300 million and it would take a bit of luck just to have five $100 million hits. The film I’m looking forward to the most is Ralph Breaks the Internet, while it, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, and Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald are all aiming for $200 million this month. Fortunately, even if 2018 is behind 2017’s pace by around $300 million, 2018 has built up such a large lead that it should still go into December with an insurmountable lead at the box office. More...

International Box Office: Halloween Rises from the Dead and into First Place

October 31st, 2018

Halloween rose from fifth to first with $26.0 million in 62 markets for a two-week total of $46.0 million. The film’s biggest new market was Germany, where it earned first place with $3.41 million on 513 screens. On the other hand, it only managed fifth place in France with $2.37 million on 316 screens. Its Australian debut was in-between those two results at second place and $1.99 million on 264 screens. It’s best holdover was in Mexico, where it earned first place with $2.34 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $9.39 million. Like I mentioned last week, this film isn’t doing as well internationally as it is domestically, but it has done so well domestically that it will break even before taking its international numbers into consideration. More...

Bohemian Rhapsody Final Trailer

October 25th, 2018

Drama starring Rami Malek opens November 2 ... Full Movie Details.

A celebration of Queen, their music and their lead singer Freddie Mercury, who defied stereotypes and shattered convention to become one of the most beloved entertainers on the planet. The film traces the meteoric rise of the band through their iconic songs and revolutionary sound, their near-implosion as Mercury’s lifestyle spirals out of control, and their triumphant reunion on the eve of Live Aid, where Mercury, facing a life-threatening illness, leads the band in one of the greatest performances in the history of rock music. In the process, cementing the legacy of a band that were always more like a family, and who continue to inspire outsiders, dreamers and music lovers to this day. More...

Bohemian Rhapsody Trailer 2

July 17th, 2018

Drama starring Rami Malek opens November 2 ... Full Movie Details.

A celebration of Queen, their music and their lead singer Freddie Mercury, who defied stereotypes and shattered convention to become one of the most beloved entertainers on the planet. The film traces the meteoric rise of the band through their iconic songs and revolutionary sound, their near-implosion as Mercury’s lifestyle spirals out of control, and their triumphant reunion on the eve of Live Aid, where Mercury, facing a life-threatening illness, leads the band in one of the greatest performances in the history of rock music. In the process, cementing the legacy of a band that were always more like a family, and who continue to inspire outsiders, dreamers and music lovers to this day. More...

Bohemian Rhapsody Trailer

May 15th, 2018

Rock’n’roll biopic starring Rami Malek opens November 2 ... Full Movie Details. More...