Weekend Predictions: New Releases don’t look Very Graceful
November 29, 2018
It’s the weekend after Thanksgiving long weekend, which is one of the worst weekends for a wide release. This weekend, The Possession of Hannah Grace is the only new release and it is only opening in 1,700 theaters. This means Ralph Breaks the Internet will have no trouble remaining in first place. In fact, the top five from last weekend will remain nearly the same. A couple might switch places, but that’s it. This weekend last year, Coco remained in top spot with just under $28 million, while there were no new releases / semi-wide expansions that managed to grab a spot in the top five. Its holdovers vs. holdovers, which gives 2018 a small advantage.
Ralph Breaks the Internet should fall just under 50% during its sophomore stint. Its reviews and the lack of competition will help, as will its family friendly target demographic. However, it’s just a bad weekend at the box office. Look for just under $29 million this weekend for a total of a little more than $120 million after two weeks of release. It will hit $200 million domestically, but it will need help from the studio break to get there.
Dr Seuss’ The Grinch should climb into second place ahead of Creed II. It does have worse reviews, but it is a family film that has been out for a few weeks, which should help its legs. Look for just over $17 million this weekend, helping it cross $200 million domestically in the process.
Creed II will be right behind with $17 million and will top $80 million over the weekend. This is almost enough to cover its entire $50 million production budget. Add in the upcoming holidays, and the film will have no trouble getting well past $100 million domestically and could still be in semi-wide release by the time the new year reaches us.
On the other hand, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald is missing expectations and is starting to lose theaters and won’t make it in semi-wide till Christmas. Look for about $13 million this weekend.
Bohemian Rhapsody should round out the top five with between $8 million and $9 million. The film is already a financial success, so whatever it earns from now on is pure profit.
The only wide release of the week is The Possession of Hannah Grace. The horror film is opening in under 2,000 theaters and still has no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. Opening below the Mendoza Line is certainly a possibility, while even the high end expectations have it missing the top five. I’m going with $4 million during its opening weekend, which will barely be enough for the top ten.
- The Possession of Hannah Grace Comparisons
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Ralph Breaks The Internet, Bohemian Rhapsody, Creed II, The Possession of Hannah Grace