Weekend Prediction: Is Grindelwald Committing Crimes against the Harry Potter Franchise?
November 15, 2018
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald is the latest installment in the Harry Potter franchise, but sadly, its reviews are, by far, the worst in the franchise. It should still have no trouble earning first place and will very likely break even just on its international numbers, but this is still troubling for its future. The second biggest release of the week is Instant Family and its reviews are good, but not great. They are certainly fine for a family comedy. Widows is the best-reviewed new release, but its buzz is quiet enough that it will barely finish in the top five. Meanwhile, A Private War is expanding nationwide and that could help it earn a spot in the top ten, but I wouldn’t bet on it. This weekend last year, Justice League opened with $93.84 million, while Wonder debuted in second place with $27.55 million. Add in The Star’s $9.81 million opening and the three wide releases pulled in $130 million. There’s no way the new releases this year will match that and 2018 will likely lose in the year-over-year comparison.
For about a decade, the Harry Potter franchise carried Warner Bros. as a studio, so it made sense to try and extend that franchise. However, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald might do long-term harm to the property. Its reviews are not only the worst in the franchise, but they have fallen below the 50% mark. This will cost it at the box office, although probably not as much during its opening weekend. I do think it will drop compared to Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, but by less than 10% at $68 million.
Dr Seuss’ The Grinch should hold on relatively well. Granted, its reviews are below the overall positive level, but it is a family film, so that should help. The film does have to deal with a really big new release, one that is somewhat direct competition. That said, it is rare for family films to fall more than 50% and I don’t think this one will fall that fast. I think it will be close at just over $37 million, but that’s still an excellent sophomore stint for a film that cost $75 million to make.
Instant Family is the third team-up between actor Mark Wahlberg and director Sean Anders. Their previous two films, the Daddy’s Home franchise, both crossed $100 million domestically. This film won’t do the same. In fact, it could fail to reach $50 million. It should at least come close to the $20 million mark during its opening weekend and its reviews are good enough for decent legs. Look for a $19 million opening.
Bohemian Rhapsody beat expectations during its opening weekend and held on better than anticipated last weekend. This means not many theater owners are looking to drop it this weekend and it should have another strong hold. It should slip to fourth place with $18 million, which is close enough to Instant Family that they could switch places on the daily chart over the weekend.
Widows should round out the top five with about $14 million. Its reviews are 92% positive with an average score of 8.2 out of 10. That’s good enough to be an Awards Season player, if it were a genre that Awards Season voters favored. Its word of mouth should help its legs, but it will need to get off to a good start for that to matter and there’s a lot of bigger competition in theaters this week. Fifth place isn’t a bad start, but I’m not sure it will be enough.
- Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Comparisons
- Dr Seuss’ The Grinch Comparisons
- Instant Family Comparisons
- Widows Comparisons
- The Girl in the Spider’s Web Comparisons
- Overlord Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, Widows, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Bohemian Rhapsody, Instant Family, A Private War, Harry Potter, Daddy’s Home, Mark Wahlberg, Sean Anders