Weekend Prediction: Will Grinch Spread the Holiday Cheer?

November 8, 2018

The Grinch

Dr Seuss’ The Grinch could be the biggest hit of the month, if it gets off to a fast start this weekend. There is some good news, as it could break The Incredibles’ record for November weekend for an animated film. This weekend, The Girl in the Spider’s Web and Overlord are both aiming to become midlevel hits. I’m not sure either will get there. Their buzz hasn’t grown as their release date has neared, which is troubling. This does mean Bohemian Rhapsody will very likely earn a solid second place, while The Nutcracker and the Four Realms has a shot at third. This weekend last year, Thor: Ragnarok earned more than $57 million during its second weekend of release, while the combined openings of Daddy’s Home 2 and Murder on the Orient Express were even better. 2018 should be better on top, but it won’t have the same depth leading to a loss in the year-over-year comparison.

Dr Seuss’ The Grinch is the latest animated film from Illumination Entertainment. The company hasn’t put out a single box office flop. On the other hand, this film is a follow-up of sorts to The Lorax, which holds the company’s record for worst reviews. This film’s reviews are better, but they are barely in the overall positive level and firmly in the “good enough for a family film” level. I’ve seen tracking numbers anywhere from $50 million on the low end to $75 million on the high end. The high end does seem more likely, especially with The Nutcracker and the Four Realms missing expectations last weekend, meaning there’s little in the way of direct competition. That said, I think The Incredibles’ record for November weekend for an animated film is safe for now. Look for a debut of $68 million over the weekend.

Bohemian Rhapsody beat expectations last weekend and should have a good hold this weekend. Its reviews aren’t great, but audience reactions were more positive. There’s a chance the film will avoid a 50% drop-off this weekend with about $26 million, but I’m not that bullish. I’m going with $24 million instead.

The Girl in the Spider’s Web is the adaptation of the first book in the Millennium series not written by the original author, who passed away before the first three books they wrote were published. The first book was turned into a movie here, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. That film earned great reviews, but didn’t do well enough at the box office to justify a sequel, mainly due to its large production budget. This time around, the film cost less than half as much to make at $43 million, but it is expected to do less than half as much at the box office. This is partially because the hype surrounding the books has died off, but also because its much weaker at just 46% positive. It is also opening in fewer theaters than anticipated, which will also hurt its box office chances. I think it will earn third place with just over $13 million, but any serious struggles could cost it a couple of spots on the chart.

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms should be next with just under $12 million. Normally family films have much better legs than the average film, but this film only managed a B plus from CinemaScore, which will hurt. Plus, it is dealing with direct competition. It is doing better internationally, but not by enough to break even any time soon.

Overlord is earning the best reviews of the weekend; however, while its Tomatometer Score is 85% positive, its average score is 6.5 out of 10, so while the vast majority of critics like the movie, few love it. That said, there’s not a lot of direct competition and there have been several big horror hits at the box office. Should the audiences like the film as much as critics did, it could land in third place with as much as $14 million, but the studio, Paramount, is only expecting between $9 million and $10 million. I think this film will flop, but not by a huge amount, landing in fifth place with just over $10 million.

- Dr Seuss’ The Grinch Comparisons
- The Girl in the Spider’s Web Comparisons
- Overlord Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, The Girl in the Spider’s Web, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, Overlord