2018 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Leading Actor
February 14, 2019
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we look at the four acting categories, continuing with Best Lead Actor. Like the Best Supporting Actor category, there is a favorite here, but an upset wouldn’t be that shocking.
(Note: All previous awards listed are only for acting and not other categories. However, they are for supporting and lead acting. Previous awards and nominations for TV roles are not included, on the other hand.)
Best Lead Actor
Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born
Willem Dafoe for At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen for Green Book
Conclusion: Three of the five nominees have multiple Oscar nominations with no wins. Additionally, three of the five films have earned overwhelmingly positive reviews. Despite this, the two front-runners are the two exceptions to those strong indicators. Rami Malek is the favorite to win for Bohemian Rhapsody, but Christian Bale wouldn’t be a shocking upset if he won for Vice.
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Christian Bale for Vice
Tomatometer Score: 66% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globes, BAFTA, and Two SAG
Movie's Previous Major Wins: Golden Globes
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: Three Oscars, Three Golden Globes, Three BAFTAs, Six SAGs, and One Independent Spirit Award
Actor's Previous Major Wins: One Oscar, One Golden Globe, Two SAGs, and One Independent Spirit Award
Notes: Logic says Christian Bale has no shot of winning this award. Vice’s reviews are not even close to award-worthy and he’s won an Oscar in the past, so he’s not up for a make-up award. That said, he did win the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Comedy / Musical and many think he’s the runner up here.
Tomatometer Score: 90% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globes, BAFTA, and SAG
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: Four Oscars, Two Golden Globes, Two BAFTAs, Three SAGs, and One Independent Spirit Award
Actor's Previous Major Wins: One SAG
Notes: A Star is Born was considered an Oscar favorite in a lot of categories for a long time. However, its star has faded and other films have overtaken it in nearly every category. Unfortunately for Bradley Cooper, this is true in this category. On the other hand, he’s earned a lot of Oscar nominations with no wins, so if he doesn’t win soon, he’ll be getting a make-up for a substandard performance later in his career. That’s usually how Oscar-voters roll.
Tomatometer Score: 80% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globes
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: Three Oscars, Two Golden Globes, One BAFTAs, Four SAGs, and Three Independent Spirit Award
Actor's Previous Major Wins: One Independent Spirit Award
Notes: Speaking of make-up Oscars, Willem Dafoe has never won an Oscar, despite getting his first nomination over 30 years ago. He really should have won by now. Unfortunately, At Eternity’s Gate never expanded beyond the art house circuit in limited release, so it might be too small to be noticed by enough voters to even have a chance to give Willem Dafoe his first Oscar.
Tomatometer Score: 66% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globes, BAFTA, and SAG
Movie's Previous Major Wins: Golden Globes, BAFTA, and Two SAG
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: None
Actor's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: This is the first film Rami Malek has made that has earned him any serious Awards Season buzz and it looks like he’s going to win an Oscar. The biggest impediment is Bohemian Rhapsody’s reviews, which are certainly not award-worthy. However, his biggest competitor, Christian Bale, also starred in a movie that didn’t earn award-worthy reviews.
Tomatometer Score: 80% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globes, BAFTA, and SAG
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: Three Oscars, Three Golden Globes, Two BAFTAs, Six SAGs, and One Independent Spirit Award
Actor's Previous Major Wins: One SAGs
Notes: Another actor who could soon win a make-up Oscar. This movie is the kind of film that Oscar-voters tends to love, so it’s not impossible that he could win, but he’s a long shot.
Filed under: Awards Season, A Star is Born, Vice, Bohemian Rhapsody, Green Book, At Eternity’s Gate, Christian Bale, Bradley Cooper, Willem Dafoe, Rami Malek, Viggo Mortensen