March 5th, 2021
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After an excellent opening for Tom and Jerry last weekend, all eyes turn to Raya and the Last Dragon. With theaters reopening in New York and San Francisco, the movie’s Disney Animation pedigree and 95% score on Rotten Tomatoes, and a stronger market for family films than other fare during the pandemic, this seems like a film that could continue the process of rebuilding momentum at the box office. A simultaneous release on Disney+ could put the brakes on though, and our model isn’t convinced it’s set for box office glory.
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February 28th, 2021
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Tom and Jerry is enjoying the best weekend of 2021 so far, and the third-best of the pandemic era, according to Warner Bros.’ projections released on Sunday mornings. Its $13.71 million opening is a far cry from the $40 million to $50 million it might have earned before the pandemic, but it confirms something we’ve suspected since the stronger-than-expected openings of The War with Grandpa and The Croods: A New Age: family movies are performing much better during the pandemic than other types of film…
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February 26th, 2021
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Warner Bros. wraps up January with what should be the biggest release of the year so far. Under normal circumstances, Tom and Jerry would be looking for an opening weekend somewhere close to the $58 million enjoyed by Sonic the Hedgehog this time last year. Our model says $46 million would be par for the course for a film like this. But, even though there are some signs of improvement in the theatrical market, pandemic-related restrictions and the reluctance of audiences to return to theaters means the movie won’t see anything close to that level of business this weekend.
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February 14th, 2021
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The combination of a long weekend and a very tight race means it’s hard to say who’s winning at the box office this weekend. Universal is claiming bragging rights, with a $2.04 million three-day estimates for The Croods: A New Age. It is set to earn around $2.66 million including Monday’s holiday gross. Warner Bros. is projecting $2.0 million over three days and $2.4 million for the long weekend for both its new release Judas and the Black Messiah and the returning The Little Things. (The studio didn’t originally announce a three-day number for The Little Things, but just confirmed that $2.0 million figure with us.)
Outside of this minor intrigue at the top of the chart, this week’s estimates contain some promising news…
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January 29th, 2021
This weekend’s release of The Little Things continues Warner Bros.’ strategy of launching major films simultaneously in theaters and on HBO Max, following the Christmastime launch of Wonder Woman 1984. The studio can argue that its experiment has paid off so far, with Wonder Woman posting a decent opening, given the state of the pandemic, and also driving new subscribers to the service. Little Things will be more of test though, since it’s not a major franchise release and isn’t high on the list of most-anticipated movies of the year.
It does, however, come with an impeccable pedigree, and our model is quite enthusiastic about its chances.
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January 24th, 2021
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The Marksman will remain at the top of the box office chart this weekend with a decent 35% decline from its opening according to Open Road’s Sunday morning projection. The Croods: A New Age will fall just 9% from last weekend to finish second. Wonder Woman 1984 (which our model forecast would regain top spot) is set to fall 38% this weekend to $1.6 million for a total of $37.7 million to date.
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January 22nd, 2021
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The box office race is overshadowed this weekend by a barrage of release date changes precipitated by the continued terrible situation with the pandemic across North America and a growing acceptance that movie theaters won’t all be open and operating under normal conditions for quite a while. The first domino to fall was No Time to Die, which has moved from April 2 to October 8. Our release schedule changes page has the gory details of all the changes announced by studios in the aftermath. The consensus seems to be that major releases definitely won’t be viable as theatrical-only releases until late April or early May, and the big guns are mostly settling in to the October through December timeframe. It might be a while before we see a tentpole come to theaters that isn’t also being quickly or simultaneously released for the home market, either on a streaming platform or as a PVOD release.
All that adds up to long theatrical runs by default for the films currently at the top of the box office chart. Here’s what our model thinks of them this weekend.
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January 17th, 2021
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The Marksman will win the battle at the top of the box office chart this weekend, according to studio estimates released on Sunday. The action thriller is projected to earn $3.225 million over the three-day part of the weekend, and Open Road expects it to add another $480,000 tomorrow for a four-day opening of $3,705,000. Its debut is comfortably ahead of our Friday prediction, but a little behind Honest Thief, which earned $3.6 million over its three-day opening weekend back in October. The decline is most likely a reflection of the worsening pandemic conditions over the past few months, but Open Road shared some interesting demographic details that shed more light on how the market is evolving at the moment.
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January 15th, 2021
MLK Weekend could have a close race at the box office as new release The Marksman goes head-to-head with Wonder Woman 1984. Our model thinks Wonder Woman has the edge, but it’s likely to be a close-run thing. Liam Neeson has an impeccable pedigree when it comes to action thrillers—this isn’t even his first outing in such a film during the pandemic—and Honest Thief beat expectations with a $3.6-million opening weekend back in October. Here’s what the model thinks about Marksman…
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January 10th, 2021
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Wonder Woman 1984 will easily top the box office chart again this weekend, according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning, but it will fall 45% from last weekend. That’s a significantly larger decline than the rest of the films in the top 12, and The Croods: A New Age will overtake it in a couple of weeks if this trend continues. Wonder Woman’s total will stand at $32.6 million after today, compared to Croods’ $36.9 million, so there’s a strong probability that the two films will end up roughly tied at the domestic box office.
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January 8th, 2021
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The theatrical market has everything working against it this weekend: a pandemic at its peak, a national constitutional crisis, and no new wide releases. All happening on what’s traditionally one of the slower weekends of the year. We’re not quite going to return to the lowest ebb in business since theaters started to reopen, according to our model, but it looks as though we might come close.
Here’s what our latest analysis run says about likely business this weekend.
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January 3rd, 2021
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Wonder Woman 1984 will remain top at the box office this weekend, according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning, but it’ll do so in spite of a sharp fall from its opening weekend. Warner Bros. projects a $5.5-million weekend for the super hero pic, down 67% from last weekend. That’s not a huge fall for a film like this by historical standards, but it is a surprisingly-sharp decline for the New Year weekend, and considerably worse than any other film reporting, many of which increased their box office from Christmas weekend.
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December 24th, 2020
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Wonder Woman will take us back to the 1980s, and possibly forward to the mid-2020s this weekend with an unprecedented release wide in theaters and simultaneously on the HBO Max streaming platform. What that means for its box office is, honestly, a mystery. While its performance will be very closely watched, there are so many additional confounding factors—the Christmas weekend, rising cases of COVID-19 around the country, theater closures and seating restrictions—that it would be unwise to draw too many conclusions from its performance. This week’s run of our box office model at least gives us a baseline to work from.
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December 20th, 2020
As expected, Monster Hunter will top the domestic chart this weekend, but the big news is Wonder Woman 1984’s global launch to $38.5 million from 30,221 screens in 32 markets.
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December 1st, 2020
The worst year for the movie theatrical industry in a century will end with a series of releases that might define the business for the next decade. Only three of the major studios are daring to release films in theaters during what is shaping up to be the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Sony Pictures is going the traditional route with Monster Hunter getting an exclusive theatrical release on Christmas Day. Universal’s deals with AMC and Cinemark to allow shortened theatrical windows in return for sharing PVOD revenue have prompted it and its specialty division Focus Features to release four films this holiday season. But all eyes (or many of them, anyway) will be on Warner Bros.’ release of Wonder Woman 1984 simultaneously in theaters and on HBO Max.
When the studio announced this release strategy back on November 18 there was speculation that, if it worked out well, they might do the same thing with some of their other upcoming films. Today they threw caution to the wind and announced that all of the studio’s 2021 films will be released in theaters and on HBO Max at the same time (in territories where HBO Max is available). While we’re still digesting the news, here are three quick takes on the rationale for Warner Bros. to make this bold leap.
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August 25th, 2020
Superhero action movie starring opens October 2 ... Full Movie Details.
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December 9th, 2019
Superhero action movie starring opens June 5 ... Full Movie Details.
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