Weekend estimates: Monster Hunter tops domestic chart, Wonder Woman rules the rest of the world
December 20, 2020
As expected, Monster Hunter will top the domestic chart this weekend, but the big news is Wonder Woman 1984’s global launch to $38.5 million from 30,221 screens in 32 markets.
For Monster Hunter, a $2.2 million haul is something of a disappointment compared to our model’s $3.1 million prediction. That’s probably a sign that the market is continuing to weaken as COVID-19 case reports increase around the US. Fatale will earn a projected $925,000, which is also below what our model predicted.
Those poor results follow smaller-than-expected openings for Half Brothers and All My Life two weeks ago. Our model is cautious about drawing conclusions from the performance of one or two films, but four poor openings in a row are enough to shift its estimate of audience participation (what we call the pandemic adjustment). That hit 34% after the strong opening of The Croods: A New Age, but will be down to just 23% after this weekend, which is the lowest it has been since theaters started reopening in September. The figure is an estimate of the share of the moviegoing public is currently willing to go to theaters, and it’s important to note that it is independent of the number of theaters that are open. To estimate the actual total audience for a weekend the model multiplies the audience participation score by the share of theaters that are open. So, with about 50% of theaters open in North America, the total market size is about half of 23%, or 11.5% of normal.
The big news internationally is the rollout of Wonder Woman 1984 with $38.5 million from 30,221 screens in 32 markets. It top territories are China with $18.8m, Taiwan with $3.6m, Thailand at $2.0m, Brazil $1.7m, Japan $1.6m, Mexico $1.6m, Singapore $1.3m, UK $1.2m, and Spain $1.1m. That compares to an international debut of $53 million for Tenet in August. The kicker is that Tenet’s opening didn’t include China. Given that China accounted for almost half of Wonder Woman’s international opening weekend, its figures look fairly weak. That’s without question down to the poor situation with the pandemic around the world right now.
- Weekend studio estimates
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International Markets
- Weekend predictions
- Weekend theater counts
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Monster Hunter, Wonder Woman 1984, The Croods: A New Age, Fatale, Tenet, Half Brothers, All My Life