Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Weekend estimates: Nobody maintains market momentum

March 28th, 2021

An excellent opening for Nobody is more than making up for sluggish results for returning films this weekend and keeps the market recovery on course. More or less. More...

Weekend predictions: Nobody’s business

March 26th, 2021

Action thriller Nobody rounds out March with a rollout in 2,460 theaters and its sights firmly set on the top of the box office chart. If the domestic box office is recovering at the pace we hope, it should achieve that goal, but our model’s figures suggest its victory isn’t assured. More...

Weekend estimates: Raya stays top with good second-week hold

March 14th, 2021

A solid second-week performance will be enough to keep Raya and the Last Dragon at the top of the box office chart this weekend, according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning. Its strength contributed to unusually large declines for the movies competing with it for family audiences, but generally it looks as though this weekend will continue the modest growth trend in the theatrical market. More...

Weekend estimates: Raya tops the chart with $8.6 million

March 7th, 2021

Raya and the Last Dragon will top the box office chart on its debut weekend with about $8.6 million according to Disney’s Sunday morning projection. While that’s 13% below our model’s $9.87 million prediction, and well behind the $14.11 million earned by Tom and Jerry last weekend, it’s a decent performance for the pandemic era, and some of the other results this weekend point towards a market that’s inching back towards recovery. More...

Weekend predictions: Croods looking likeliest winner in a close race

February 19th, 2021

With no new releases this weekend, the race for number one at the box office comes down to which film among the top three last weekend has the best legs. The overwhelmingly likely answer to that question is The Croods: A New Age, which enters its lucky 13th week in release doing almost exactly the same business as it was two months ago. The only unknown is how well Judas and the Black Messiah will do in its second weekend. More...

Weekend estimates: a 3-way tie for number one

February 14th, 2021

The combination of a long weekend and a very tight race means it’s hard to say who’s winning at the box office this weekend. Universal is claiming bragging rights, with a $2.04 million three-day estimates for The Croods: A New Age. It is set to earn around $2.66 million including Monday’s holiday gross. Warner Bros. is projecting $2.0 million over three days and $2.4 million for the long weekend for both its new release Judas and the Black Messiah and the returning The Little Things. (The studio didn’t originally announce a three-day number for The Little Things, but just confirmed that $2.0 million figure with us.)

Outside of this minor intrigue at the top of the chart, this week’s estimates contain some promising news… More...

Weekend predictions: Judas and the Black Messiah should win the weekend

February 12th, 2021

The welcome arrival of two new wide releases and the combination of Valentine’s Day on Sunday and President’s Day on Monday should cause an uptick at the box office this weekend. Judas and the Black Messiah is the film most likely to top the chart, according to our model, while Land is set for a more modest result but should make it into the top six.

More...

Weekend estimates: The Little Things stays top on a sluggish weekend

February 7th, 2021

Today’s Super Bowl might be causing some caution among the studios as they compile their weekend projections, but whichever way you cut it, we’re looking at another slow weekend in theaters. The Little Things will come out on top with around $2.1 million, according to Warner Bros.. That’s down a steep 56% from its opening weekend, and 9% below our model’s prediction. In general, almost all films are falling a little shy of the model’s numbers, suggesting that we’re still not seeing real growth in the market. More...

Weekend predictions: The Little Things set to win Superbowl weekend

February 5th, 2021

With no new wide releases, there can really be only one winner at the box office this weekend. Last week’s champ, The Little Things earned more than twice as much as second-place The Croods: A New Age last weekend, and will stay top even with a steep drop.

The performance of The Croods, which is a bellweather for the strength of the theatrical market as a whole, is probably of more interest this weekend. More...

Weekend estimates: The Little Things launches with $4.8 million

January 31st, 2021

Although it will fall a little short of our weekend prediction, The Little Things will post a respectable-under-the-circumstances $4.8 million this weekend, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday morning projection. If there wasn’t a pandemic going on, that would translate into something like a $21 million debut—in line with previous outings for Denzel Washington in action films and thrillers, such as Unstoppable ($22.7 million opening) and The Taking of Pelham 123 ($23.4 million opening), although behind the more recent The Equalizer, which started out with $34 million. It gives The Little Things bragging rights to the best opening of 2021, which everyone in the industry will be praying is a title it won’t hold for very long. More...

Weekend predictions: The Little Things should easily win the weekend

January 29th, 2021

This weekend’s release of The Little Things continues Warner Bros.’ strategy of launching major films simultaneously in theaters and on HBO Max, following the Christmastime launch of Wonder Woman 1984. The studio can argue that its experiment has paid off so far, with Wonder Woman posting a decent opening, given the state of the pandemic, and also driving new subscribers to the service. Little Things will be more of test though, since it’s not a major franchise release and isn’t high on the list of most-anticipated movies of the year.

It does, however, come with an impeccable pedigree, and our model is quite enthusiastic about its chances.

More...

Weekend estimates: Marksman stays top

January 24th, 2021

The Marksman will remain at the top of the box office chart this weekend with a decent 35% decline from its opening according to Open Road’s Sunday morning projection. The Croods: A New Age will fall just 9% from last weekend to finish second. Wonder Woman 1984 (which our model forecast would regain top spot) is set to fall 38% this weekend to $1.6 million for a total of $37.7 million to date. More...

January preview: 2021 starts with the quietest month since July

January 5th, 2021

There’s precious little good news in the theatrical market as we start 2021. Although Wonder Woman 1984 had a relatively good opening weekend after its launch on Christmas Day, it declined steeply at the box office last weekend, and the combined earnings for all films reporting is only a shade over $10 million right now. Unfortunately, there are only two films scheduled to open wide in the whole month of January, which means we won’t see much of an improvement in the market, and likely some back sliding, particularly given the growing COVID-19 case counts and the high likelihood of continued restrictions on public gatherings around North America.

The (slow) rollout of a vaccine is the one piece of good news, but it’s unlikely to have much of an effect on the things for several months. For now, here’s what’s in store for January… More...