Weekend predictions: The Little Things should easily win the weekend
January 29, 2021
This weekend’s release of The Little Things continues Warner Bros.’ strategy of launching major films simultaneously in theaters and on HBO Max, following the Christmastime launch of Wonder Woman 1984. The studio can argue that its experiment has paid off so far, with Wonder Woman posting a decent opening, given the state of the pandemic, and also driving new subscribers to the service. Little Things will be more of test though, since it’s not a major franchise release and isn’t high on the list of most-anticipated movies of the year.
It does, however, come with an impeccable pedigree, and our model is quite enthusiastic about its chances.
The prediction for The Little Things is mainly based on the historical performance of thrillers starring Denzel Washington, who has one of the best records in the business—our Bankability Index ranks him seventh overall, and fourth among actors, for example. The comps above tell the story: Washington can almost always be relied upon for an opening weekend around $30 million. Adding Rami Malek, Jared Leto, and director John Lee Hancock to the mix adds up to a film that should blow past $30 million under normal circumstances.
After adjusting for an expected opening in 2,000 theaters (Warner Bros. hasn’t announced a number, but that would be in keeping with recent debuts), and our model’s estimate that 27% of regular moviegoers are currently showing up in theaters, we get a predicted opening of $5.75 million. That would be comfortably higher than The Marksman’s $3.1-million start, and even a shade ahead of Wonder Woman’s $5.5-million performance over New Year’s weekend.
The great unknown is how much the simultaneous release on HBO Max will affect the results for Little Things. That release strategy didn’t seem to hurt Wonder Woman too badly, and other PVOD releases haven’t significantly hurt films’ box office performance recently. But, like so much during these unprecedented times, we’re still flying mostly blind. A weekend under $5 million for Little Things wouldn’t be much of a surprise, particularly considering its middling reviews.
Little Things should help lift the overall market significantly from last weekend, and our model is also expecting fairly modest falls for returning films.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Wonder Woman 1984, The Croods: A New Age, Honest Thief, Promising Young Woman, News of the World, The Little Things, The Marksman, Liam Neeson, Denzel Washington, Jared Leto, Rami Malek, John Lee Hancock