Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Home Market Releases for August 27th, 2019

August 28th, 2019

This week, the main list of new releases is particularly short for two reasons. Firstly, it is a slow week. Secondly, I’ve filtered out the TV on DVD releases for their own section. I’ve been meaning to do this for a while and we are entering the heart of TV on DVD season on the home market, so it made sense to do it this week. (I’m including all TV on DVD releases, both individual seasons and full series Megasets.) As for the biggest new releases, there are not a lot to talk about. Godzilla: King of the Monsters and The Secret Life of Pets 2 both missed expectations at the box office, but both are worth picking up for their respective target audiences. As for the best, only The Last Black Man in San Francisco and Rocketman are contenders for Pick of the Week. The latter has far better extras, but the former is the better movie and wins that title. More...

International Box Office: Spider-Man’s Worldwide Vacation

July 11th, 2019

Spider-Man: Far from Home expanded nearly worldwide over the weekend, and earned $236.74 million on 53,120 screens in 85 markets for a still early international total of $393.37 million, and $578.43 million worldwide. The film’s biggest new market was South Korea, where it earned $24.55 million on 2,173 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $33.45 million. Far From Home also cracked $10 million in the U.K. with $10.53 million on 979 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $17.77 million and in Mexico with $10.39 million on 3,806 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $13.42 million. The film earned a total opening of $12.11 million in Australia, including $7.26 million on 332 screens over the weekend. The film’s biggest holdover was China, where it earned $29.88 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $166.63 million. Italy was the only market the film wasn’t playing in over the weekend, but that changed on Wednesday and we will have those numbers next week. More...

International Box Office: Spider-Man Swings into First Place

July 3rd, 2019

Spider-Man: Far from Home made its international debut the weekend before its domestic start earning $111.20 million on 35,187 screens in three markets. Those three markets where led by China, where it earned $97.72 million on 34,300 screens. It was also very potent in Japan with $9.36 million on 465 screens and in Hong Kong with $4.12 million on 422. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Toy Story Can’t Overcome Box Office Woes

July 2nd, 2019

June ended with shrug, as the weekend was neither a success nor a disaster. Toy Story 4 was the top draw, but it fell faster than most family films do, down 51% to $59.70 million. Annabelle Comes Home had the weakest opening in the franchise, while Yesterday did well as counter-programming, but that’s all. The overall box office fell 26% from last weekend and, more importantly, 15% from the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2019 has fallen behind 2018’s pace by a margin of 9.5% or $580 million at $5.52 billion to $6.10 billion. At the beginning of June, I thought 2019 would have cut into 2018’s lead by $100 million, but that clearly didn’t happen. More...

Weekend Estimates: Toy Story has a June-Like Hold with $58 million

June 30th, 2019

Toy Story 4 is earning first place over the weekend with $57.92 million. A few weeks ago, a 52% sophomore stint drop-off by a family film would have been a really bad sign; however, June was so bad that this result matches expectations, more or less. The film now has $236.92 million domestically and should race past $300 million here before it is done. This is a monster hit and more than enough to be profitable, but still disappointing. This film is having a better weekend internationally, earning $80.6 million in 45 markets for totals of $259.6 million internationally and $496.5 million worldwide. This includes a $7.0 million opening in France, which is the best in the franchise. More...

Friday Estimates: Toy Story Dominates Chart, Doesn’t Have Aladdin-Like Legs

June 29th, 2019

It looks like June won’t end on a high note, as Toy Story 4 is falling faster than hoped for. The film earned $17.04 million on Friday, which is almost as much as the rest of the top five earned in total. However, and more importantly, it is 64% lower than the film’s opening Friday and that’s a sharper decline that I was anticipating. Granted, its $196.03 million running tally is in line with budget expectations, so it will break even, even if it doesn’t match expectations. A profitable disappointment. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will June Completely Miss at the Box Office?

June 27th, 2019

So far June has been a disaster with no film topping expectations to any significant degree. In fact, Aladdin was the last time we had a film that really beat expectations at the box office and that came out more than a month ago. This weekend is the last chance for June to not be a complete disaster and frankly I’m not optimistic. Annabelle Comes Home is part of the biggest horror franchise around. However, the most recent installment was also the weakest by far and I fear this film will also be significantly below average for the franchise. Yesterday is the smaller of the two films, but in this case this means it doesn’t have to do much business at the box office to be seen as a success. Meanwhile, Toy Story 4 is expected to remain in top spot over the weekend and if its legs are long enough, it could be seen as a real success rather than a profitable disappointment. This weekend last year, there were no major new releases, but Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Incredibles 2 were strong as holdovers. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Toy Story Latest Film to Miss Expectations

June 25th, 2019

I think 2019 is done. The year isn’t quite halfway done, but I think I’m ready to call the box office race with 2018 over. Toy Story 4 was the latest potential monster hit to miss expectations by a huge margin. Granted, it still opened in first place with $120.10 million and it will make a substantial profit, but this is still about 25% lower than a lot of people expected and the overall weekend is still a massive disappointment. It did rise 50% from last weekend hitting $204 million, but this was 25% lower than the same weekend last year and that’s a much more important figure. Year-to-date, 2019 is now behind 2018 by 8.9% or $510 million at $5.26 billion to $5.77 billion. If you want to stretch for some good news, then this isn’t the worst deficit we’ve seen this year. More...

Weekend Estimates: Toy Story has the Best Opening in the Franchise, Still Disappoints

June 23rd, 2019

Almost none of the films on this week’s list are living up to expectations, at least not according to the weekend estimates. Toy Story 4 is earning the best opening in the franchise with an estimated $118.0 million weekend. This is third-highest opening for an animated film, so there is reason to celebrate. However, it is also much lower than expected and a little more front-loaded than anticipated, so its future might be in doubt. The film is doing better internationally with an estimated opening weekend of $120.0 million in 37 markets. The film had the third biggest opening in Mexico with $23.4 million, putting it behind just the two most recent Avengers movies. It had the biggest opening for an animated film in Brazil with $9.6 million. The film was also a monster hit in the U.K. with $15.0 million. On the other hand, it struggled in China with a second-place $13.4 million opening there; however, most animated films struggle in China. Hopefully the film’s reviews and its A from CinemaScore translate into long legs, because 2019 really needs more success stories at the box office. More...

Friday Estimates: Toy Story Doesn’t Have an Incredible Start

June 22nd, 2019

Toy Story 4 is on pace to earn the third-best opening weekend for an animated film, but despite this, it will be seen as a disappointment, as many people were expecting a lot more. The film earned $47.39 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $123 million over the full weekend, which is behind Incredibles 2 and Finding Dory on the all-time opening chart for an animated film. It really needed to be higher up that list in order to help 2019 win in the year-over-year competition. At this pace, it won’t even match last year’s number one film, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom. On the positive side, the film is earning 97% positive reviews and managed an A from CinemaScore, so it should have long legs. It will be a hit for Pixar and Disney is not going to lose money on this movie. However, I’m getting tired of big films failing to live up to expectations and I don’t think 2019 is going to be able to turn things around. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Toy Story 4 Save June’s Box Office Run?

June 20th, 2019

June has not lived up to expectations and unless Toy Story 4 is a record-breaking hit, we are going to end the month with a loss. I don’t think it will break records, but it will easily be the biggest hit of the month. Also opening this week is Child’s Play, the reboot to the long-running horror franchise of the same name. Finally, Anna is the latest film from Luc Besson and many are comparing it to Lucy. It’s not going to do that well. It likely won’t reach the top five. This weekend last year, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom opened with $148.02 million. I really hope Toy Story 4 tops that; however, even if it does, nothing playing this weekend is going to compare with Incredibles 2’s run last year, so 2019 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Weekend Bests Estimates, Still Clobbered by Incredibles

June 18th, 2019

There is some good news to report, as the weekend final numbers beat both the projections based on Friday estimates and Sunday’s estimates. There’s also some bad news. Even with this improvement, the weekend was really soft at the box office. Men in Black: International led the way with just $30.04 million during its opening weekend, while only two other films topped $10 million over the weekend. This left the overall box office down 18% from last weekend to just $135 million. This is 50% lower than the same weekend last year; a decline that we normally only see when there is a misalignment in a holiday. However, in this case, it was due to Incredibles 2, which earned more by itself than the total box office did this year. This has left 2019 further behind 2018 and it is now off last year’s pace by 7.0% or $370 million at $4.99 billion to $5.36 billion. Several weeks worth of gaining ground has gone in a single weekend. More...

Weekend Estimates: Black Skies for MiB

June 16th, 2019

According to weekend estimates, Men in Black: International is topping projections based on Friday estimates, but is still weaker than predicted with $28.5 million. This is a pleasant surprise, as the film’s reviews are terrible and its B from CinemaScore strongly suggested weaker legs. Maybe it will continue to surprise going forward. The film is doing much better internationally with $73.7 million on 41,400 screens in 56 markets. This includes $26.3 million in China, $5.1 million in Russia, $4.9 million in South Korea, and $3.9 million in Mexico. On the downside, the film has opened in most major markets, so it will be mostly coasting on holdovers at this point. It should still earn enough to cover its production budget worldwide, but that’s not enough to break even in any timely fashion. More...

Friday Estimates: Toy Story 4 needs to be a Monster Hit

June 15th, 2019

It is going to be a really bad weekend. All of the progress we made since Endgame came out could be erased in a week and if Toy Story 4 isn’t a monster hit, then 2019 will be in serious trouble, again. Men in Black: International led the way on Friday, but it only managed $10.4 million. Sony is projecting a $26.2 million opening weekend, which would be the studio’s biggest opening of the year so far. In fact, it would be the studio’s third biggest hit of the year after just three days. Yikes. The film’s reviews are terrible and it only managed a B from CinemaScore, so I don’t expect long legs. There are some rumors going around that the film didn’t cost as much as its official $110 million production budget, but even if those are true, this is still not a good start. Maybe it will thrive internationally. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Men in Black Open in the Black?

June 13th, 2019

It’s a busy weekend at the box office with the potential for four new entries in the top ten. Unfortunately, only one of those films, Late Night, is earning good reviews. The other films’ reviews range from mediocre reviews to depressing reviews. Likewise, the four film’s box office chances range from mediocre, with Men in Black: International expected to open south of $30 million, to depressing, with some suggesting Late Night and / or The Dead Never Die missing the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Incredibles 2 opened with $182.69 million. That’s more than the entire box office will make this weekend. 2019 is going to get crushed in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Theater Averages: Late Night Gets Off to an Early Start

June 13th, 2019

2019 set a new record on the theater average chart, as Late Night got off to the fastest start for a limited release so far earning an average of $61,576 in four theaters during its opening weekend. This is better than Echo in the Canyon managed just two weeks ago, although Avengers: Endgame still owns the overall record with an average of $76,601. The Last Black Man in San Francisco also did incredibly well with an average of $33,610 in seven theaters. This Ones for the Ladies was well back with an opening of $13,688 in one theater. Meanwhile, the overall number one film, The Secret Life of Pets 2, was the final film in the $10,000 club with an average of $10,229. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: New Releases Miss Expectations and Estimates

June 11th, 2019

It was a mixed weekend at the box office with neither of the two new releases matching expectations. Not only that, but most of the top five missed estimates as well. This led to a result 5.6% lower than last weekend falling to $164 million. I was really expecting growth this weekend. The Secret Life of Pets 2 led the way with $46.65 million, while Dark Phoenix really struggled with just $32.83 million. Aladdin was arguably the only real bright spot in the top five this weekend. Fortunately, this weekend last year was even worse and 2019 was able to win the year-over-year comparison by a whopping 37%. This allowed 2019 to close the gap between it and 2018 to just $300 million or 5.9% at $4.78 billion to $5.08 billion. That’s still a large gap, but it is far cry from where it once was. More...

Weekend Estimates: Pets Don’t have a Fiery Rebirth with Just $47 million

June 9th, 2019

Neither of the two wide releases matched expectations over the weekend and in both cases, it could be the end of their respective franchises. The Secret Life of Pets 2 is earning first place with $47.11 million, which isn’t a bad result for a family film that cost $80 million to make. However, this estimate is 55% lower than the first film’s opening weekend. Internationally, it is adding $16.0 million over the weekend to its three-week total, which sits at $49.0 million. Additionally, it has yet to open in most international markets, so it should have long legs on this chart. However, it still isn’t living up to the original. Universal has to be looking at this numbers and deciding to move on from the franchise, even though this film will very likely break even sooner rather than later. Even a moderate decline for a hypothetical third film would put profitability in question. More...

Friday Estimates: Dark Day at the Box Office

June 8th, 2019

June might be in trouble, as both of the wide releases stumbled out of the gate missing expectations. The Secret Life of Pets 2 managed first place on Friday, but with just $16.5 million. This is 57% lower than the first film managed during its opening day. Unlike the first film, school was still in session for a lot of the film’s target audience during Friday, so that could help its legs over the weekend. Universal is projecting a $47 million opening weekend, but it might climb to $50 million. Even so, that’s still a serious decline over the first movie. The film did match the original at CinemaScore earning an A minus, so its weaker reviews aren’t going to be much of an issue. Additionally, the movie only cost $80 million to make, so even a $45 million opening won’t prevent the film from breaking even sooner rather than later. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Dark Phoenix Sinks Below Apocalypse

June 7th, 2019

Dark Phoenix had the best Thursday previews with $5 million. However, while this is tops for the weekend, it is well below comparisons. For example, Godzilla: King of the Monsters earned $6.3 million during its previews last week, while Apocalypse managed $8.2 million in previews back in 2016. Additionally, the film also has the worst reviews of these films, so it will likely have the shortest legs. That said, for a lot of high school and college students, this weekend is the start of the summer holidays, so that should help its legs during its opening weekend. Because of this, I’m still cautiously optimistic about our $52 million prediction. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Dark Phoenix Soar Above Pets 2?

June 6th, 2019

It could be a real race on the box office chart this weekend. The Secret Life of Pets 2 isn’t generating as much buzz as I was expecting, while there is actually some good news surrounding Dark Phoenix’s box office chances. There’s no good news regarding its reviews, that’s for sure. Also coming out this weekend is Late Night, but it is now coming out in limited release with a wide expansion next week. That’s not a good sign. This does leave one more spot in the top five for a holdover, meaning Aladdin, Godzilla: King of the Monsters, and Rocketman will all remain in the top five for at least one more weekend. This weekend last year, Ocean’s 8 opened with a decent $41.61 million and both The Secret Life of Pets 2 and Dark Phoenix should top that. 2019 should start the month with an easy win. More...

International Box Office: Godzilla Stomps Through Asia, is Quieter Elsewhere

June 5th, 2019

Godzilla: King of the Monsters was more dominant on the international chart with $130 million on 53,515 screens in 75 markets for a worldwide debut of $178 million. Most of this success came in Asia, including in China, where the movie opened in first place with $66.65 million over the weekend for a total opening of $70.41 million. Japan was the next biggest market with a haul of $8.4 million on 600, which was enough for first place in that market. The film also earned first place in Taiwan ($4.2 million on 320 screens); Thailand ($2.3 million on 705 screens); and Malaysia ($2.2 million on 653). The film had to settle for second place in a number of major markets including Mexico ($4.7 million on 2,443 screens); the U.K. ($4.43 million in 531 theaters); and France ($2.5 million on 628 screens). The film has yet to open in Spain and a number of smaller markets, so it isn’t done its international run. That said, it was an expensive movie to make and it will need help on the home market to break even. More...

2019 Preview: June

June 1st, 2019

While the final weekend in May isn’t over yet, we can safely say the month was merely okay. It managed to keep pace with last May, but I was really hoping to cut into 2019’s deficit by a significant margin. June is not looking any better, at least not compared to 2018. There are two potential monster hits, The Secret Life of Pets 2 and Toy Story 4, as well as a trio of $100 million hits, Dark Phoenix, Men in Black: International, and Annabelle Comes Home. On the surface, this looks excellent; however, last June was even better on top with Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom earning a combined $1 billion domestically. Granted, the only other $100 million hit was Oceans 8, so this year should have a lot better depth. I don’t think it will be enough to gain any ground in the year-over-year comparison, which is the only way to really judge how a month is doing at this point. More...

The Secret Life of Pets 2 Trailer

February 21st, 2019

Animated adventure opens June 7 ... Full Movie Details. More...