Weekend Predictions: Can Toy Story 4 Save June’s Box Office Run?

June 20, 2019

Toy Story 4

June has not lived up to expectations and unless Toy Story 4 is a record-breaking hit, we are going to end the month with a loss. I don’t think it will break records, but it will easily be the biggest hit of the month. Also opening this week is Child’s Play, the reboot to the long-running horror franchise of the same name. Finally, Anna is the latest film from Luc Besson and many are comparing it to Lucy. It’s not going to do that well. It likely won’t reach the top five. This weekend last year, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom opened with $148.02 million. I really hope Toy Story 4 tops that; however, even if it does, nothing playing this weekend is going to compare with Incredibles 2’s run last year, so 2019 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison.

Toy Story 4 is the latest from Pixar. What more do I need to say? Pixar’s track record at the box office and with critics is nearly unparalleled. The only production company with a better track record than Pixar is arguably Marvel Studios. Toy Story 4 is earning the loudest buzz of the month and some of the best reviews of the year. Additionally, while the film didn’t have a lot of Oscar buzz before the reviews came out, it’s going to get some Oscar buzz now. As for its box office chances, the film’s presales started out faster than Incredibles 2’s presales did, but then cooled off. This strongly suggests the film is going to be more front-loaded than most family films are. Furthermore, since its final presales were lower than Incredibles 2, it will very likely not match that film’s debut. That said, it could come close and I’ve seen predictions north of $175 million, while the film’s low end is around $150 million. Because so many films have missed expectations this month, I think it is wise to be more cautious here and I’m going with an opening weekend prediction of $155 million. That’s still more than enough to be a monster hit, but not enough to help 2019 end its losing streak.

Child’s Play is a bit of a surprise hit with critics earning 71% positive reviews. It is also part of a franchise that has been around for a long time, so that could help its box office numbers. On the other hand, it is a horror film playing during the summer and those are rarely more than midlevel hits. I think this film will have a run that is similar to Ma’s box office run opening with just over $17 million. This would be the best opening in the franchise and would actually be better than two of the previous film’s domestic totals.

If the rest of June’s potential blockbusters are any indication, then Men in Black: International will collapse this weekend. I don’t think it will fall as quickly as Dark Phoenix did and will likely be a little better than Godzilla: King of the Monsters. It will still fall more than 60% leaving it with just over $11 million over the weekend. This may or may not be enough for third place.

The Secret Life of Pets 2 should also earn about $11 million. Last weekend, it fell much faster than most family films do and this weekend it has to deal with monster direct competition and I don’t think it will be able to survive.

Aladdin will be next with just under $11 million for a running tally of $285 million. This will be the film’s last weekend in the top five, but it will get to $300 million before it is done.

Anna isn’t going to reach the five and some think it won’t even come close. I’ve seen some predictions that are so low the film would miss the Mendoza Line with just $4 million. That seems too low. Granted, its reviews are not going to be a selling point, as not only are there almost no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, but the ones that are there are merely mixed. I’m going with an $8 million opening weekend, which would be a disappointment, but not a disaster.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Godzilla: King of the Monsters, Toy Story 4, The Secret Life of Pets 2, Dark Phoenix, Aladdin, Men in Black: International, Anna, Child’s Play, MA, Child's Play, Luc Besson