2019 Preview: May
May 1, 2019
April got off to a fast start with Shazam! opening the first weekend of the month. Meanwhile, Avengers: Endgame ended the month with a record-breaking debut. Unfortunately for 2019, last April had a very similar result leaving 2019 behind 2018’s pace by over $400 million. Will May be able to turn things around? Last May, there were only two films that reached $200 million, Deadpool 2 and Solo: A Star Wars Story. Meanwhile, this May there are three such films, Detective Pikachu, Aladdin, and Godzilla: King of the Monsters. There are two points we need to make. Firstly, the only reason there are more potential $200 million hits this year is because May has five Fridays this year. Secondly, this May also has a lot better depth with films like John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum and Rocketman being potential $100 million hits. Even if we ignore the final weekend, May should do well enough to cut into 2018’s lead over 2019. It’s not going to be able to cut it in half, but it could do well enough to make box office analysts a little more positive about the year’s chances overall.
Avengers: Endgame opened with more than $350 million during its opening weekend. Even if it falls just over 70% during its sophomore stint, it will still manage more than $100 million during this weekend. This is more than any of the films opening this weekend will earn. In fact it could be more than all of the films opening this weekend earn in total combined. The widest release of the week is UglyDolls, a third-tier animated film that is just hoping to become a midlevel hit. Long Shot is a romantic comedy and these rarely become major hits, but this one could become a midlevel hit. The Intruder is a psychological thriller that is unfortunately the smallest of the three and could be lost in the crowd. Also coming out this week is El Chicano, but it is only opening in 1,000 theaters, which is technically wide, but not wide enough to be included here. This weekend last year, Avengers: Infinity War dominated the box office earning just over $100 million more than Overboard. If Endgame has barely reasonable legs, then 2019 will have a major victory in the year-over-year comparison.
Michael Ealy and Meagan Good star as a newlywed couple who buy their dream home. However, the previous owner, played by Dennis Quaid, is unable to let go and his obsession with his old home becomes dangerous.
This is the smallest wide release of the week, and that’s saying a lot, as none of the wide releases look particularly potent at the box office. That said, I don’t expect it to bomb either and it very likely cost very little to make, at least compared to the average movie.
Charlize Theron is a presidential candidate who is reunited with a childhood friend, Seth Rogen. They begin a romance while on the campaign trail. The early reviews are very positive and I think filmgoers will be looking for a comedy as counter-programing. That said, it will be a midlevel hit, at best, because Avengers: Endgame’s box office dominance won’t leave room for anything more than that.
An animated family film about a group of misfit toys trying to fit in. This is a third-tier animated movie that isn’t being released by a major studio and that means it could really struggle at the box office. On the other hand, families will be wanting to watch something other than Avengers: Endgame, so this should do well enough as counter-programing and become a midlevel hit.
Pokémon: Detective Pikachu is widely expected to be the biggest hit of the weekend and a lot of people think it will be the biggest hit of the month. There are some who think it will be one of the biggest hits of the year in competition with Avengers: Endgame and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. The Hustle is a con artist movie and I love these movies. However, I don’t think it will be a breakout hit. I think Poms will do well as counter-programing, but that’s it. This weekend last year, Avengers: Infinity War dominated the box office while Life of the Party and Breaking In had near identical openings. The three films combined earned nearly $100 million. Pokémon: Detective Pikachu is on track to beat that by itself. If this happens, then 2019 will start to look pretty good.
On the one hand, I love movies about con artists and I love Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson, so I’m really looking forward to this movie. On the other hand, it is a remake of Dirty Rotten Scoundrels, which is one of my favorite films in the genre, so it will have a very difficult time matching its predecessor. Additionally, the film has had a tough time finding a release date and this is a bad sign, as it indicates the studio doesn’t have a lot of faith in the film. I still have hope that the film could become a midlevel hit, but I think being a little more cautious is the wise move to make.
Why am I so excited to see this movie? I was too old for Pokémon when it first came out and I never played any of the games or watched any of the TV shows. In fact, the first time I had any real contact with the franchise was Pokémon Go. That said, Pokémon: Detective Pikachu is the May release I’m most excited to see. This month has a con artist movie, a Kaiju movie, and the third installment of the John Wick franchise, yet the film I want to see the most is one based on a card game I never played. More importantly for this film’s box office chances, I’m not alone. In fact, there are many who think this film will end up being one of the three biggest hits of the year. I’m not that bullish, but I can see it becoming a monster hit earning $1 billion worldwide. There are no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes yet, but there have been early reports and they are almost entirely positive. It’s so positive that even a final Tomatometer Score in the low 80% range would seem disappointing.
A group of women at a retirement community decide to start a cheerleader squad. This is counter-programing that I fear will slip through the cracks. On the positive side, it likely cost very little to make, so it doesn’t need to be a big hit to break even.
John Wick: Chapter 3 — Parabellum is the only movie opening this week that I’m actually interested in seeing and with a little luck, it will top the first two films in the franchise. A Dog’s Journey is an unlikely sequel to A Dog’s Purpose. Finally, there’s The Sun is Also a Star, which is a young adult novel adaptation. Those films haven’t been a major box office draw in a while. This weekend last year saw the debut of Deadpool 2. 2019 is going to lose in the year-over-year competition, unless John Wick really tops expectations and Avengers: Endgame has stellar legs.
The first film, A Dog’s Purpose, earned just over $200 million on a $25 million budget, so I’m not surprised the film got a sequel. However, I’m not as bullish about A Dog’s Journey’s chances compared to the original film, but assuming the two movies have similar budgets, then this one could make half as much worldwide and still break even. I think that’s likely.
The original John Wick didn’t make enough money in theaters to justify a sequel. John Wick: Chapter Two got made because of the first film’s success on the home market. The second film was a much bigger hit in theaters earning more domestically than the first film earned worldwide. This time around, John Wick: Chapter 3 — Parabellum is widely expected to top the franchise at the box office. There are even some who think it will open with significantly more than $50 million and will top Chapter Two’s worldwide total domestically. I am not that bullish, but I would love it if that happened.
A romantic drama based on a young adult novel. These films briefly had a major impact at the box office, but those days are over. That said, the film’s production budget is likely very low compared to most wide releases, so it doesn’t need to become even a midlevel hit to break even.
Aladdin is the latest live-action remake of a classic Disney cartoon. I’m worried over-saturation of this market is really kicking in, but this film should still compete for the biggest hit of the month. Booksmart is an R-rated high school comedy, but one that focuses on two girls. Finally, I fear BrightBurn will earn amazing reviews, but will be ignored by more moviegoers and will be a cult hit at best. This weekend last year was led by Solo: A Star Wars Story with $84.42 million. Aladdin should top that; in fact, it has a shot at earning more than the top two films earned last year. One final note: Ad Astra is supposed to come out this week, but all signs point to it being pushed back and perhaps being removed entirely from the schedule.
There are too many live-action Disney remakes and Aladdin will suffer from a sort of Franchise Fatigue. On the other hand, I think it will do much better than Dumbo did, since this film is earning a lot better pre-release buzz. There are some complaints that the CGI Genie is a little horrifying at times, but so many people were willing to forgive that as soon as they heard the new rendition of the classic songs. Because of this, and the film’s much better release date, I think it will be a monster hit. I would be shocked if it didn’t earn at least $250 million domestically, while $350 million isn’t out of the question.
Two high school girls played by Beanie Feldstein and Kaitlyn Dever realize they spent all of their time getting good grades and not partying and they conclude it wasn’t worth it. They then vow to cram four years of wild times into the next four days.
This film is worth keeping an eye on for two reasons. Firstly, it’s Olivia Wilde’s director debut. Secondly, its early reviews are 100% positive. Furthermore, there are 37 reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, so this isn’t a small sample, and the average score is 8.5 our of 10, so the reviews are enthusiastically positive. I still think it will struggle to become a midlevel hit, because this genre isn’t particularly popular at the box office at the moment, but I hope I’m wrong here.
I’m really worried about this movie’s chances. Whenever I think of it, I get flashbacks of Slither. That film earned stunning reviews, but it completely bombed in theaters. It did find an audience on the home market and it is rightfully considered a cult classic by many. I fear the same thing will happen to BrightBurn. The film is earning great pre-release buzz, in certain circles. Fans of horror movies are talking about this film as potentially the next great horror movie, but I’m not hearing much of anything from the wider audience. Granted, Avengers: Endgame is taking up just about every breath moviegoers have at the moment, so by the time this film comes out, its buzz will have grown. I’m just worried it won’t grow enough to make a difference.
This could be a great weekend at the box office. There’s a potential monster hit with Godzilla: King of the Monsters. Rocketman is a rock’n’roll biopic that is aiming for $100 million. Finally there’s MA, which is a psychological horror film looking to become a midlevel hit as counter-programing. This weekend last year was actually the first weekend of June. There were three wide releases that week, but none of them were hits. If Godzilla is as big a hit as some think, it could make more during its opening weekend than last year’s three wide releases earned in total. The three wide releases from this year could earn more than the entire box office earned last year. 2019 should end the month on a strong winning note.
There are a lot of fans of Godzilla who are excited for this movie. It looks like it will be the best Western rendition of the Godzilla franchise ever. The previous Godzilla movie did earn great reviews, but there were complaints about the lack of Godzilla in the movie and how the film kept following the least interesting human characters. There won’t be a huge amount of Godzilla in this movie, because there will be so many other famous Kaiju that have to get screen time as well. However, I think this will be a major selling point for the film and I think it will top the previous film by a significant margin.
Octavia Spencer plays a lonely woman, who befriends a group of teens and let’s them hang out at her house. She just as a few rules. The movie is a psychological horror film, so you know those rules get out of hand. Horror movies rarely to exceptionally well during the summer and I doubt this film will be a breakout hit. That said, I also doubt the film cost a huge amount to make, so it should do well enough to break even sometime during its home market run.
Taron Egerton stars in this rock’n’roll biopic about Elton John. I’m cautiously optimistic about this film’s chances, because this type of film is on a hot streak. However, there’s not a lot of buzz at the moment to make a more concrete prediction. The reason there isn’t a lot of buzz at the moment, is because the film doesn’t open in theaters until the last day of the month. It has a lot of time to build its buzz and I think it will get there.
Weekend of May 3rd, 2019
The Intruder
Official Site: TheIntruderMovie.com
Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: May 3rd, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for violence, terror, some sexuality, language and thematic elements.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords:
California, Newlyweds, Psychological Thriller, African-American
Directed By: Deon Taylor
Written By: David Loughery
Starring: Michael Ealy, Meagan Good, Dennis Quaid
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at under $10 million
Box Office Potential: $35 million
Long Shot
Official Site: LongShot.movie
Distributor: Lionsgate
Release Date: May 3rd, 2019
MPAA Rating: R for strong sexual content, language throughout and some drug use.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Romantic Comedy
Keywords:
Childhood Friends, Romance, Political Campaign, Politicians
Directed By: Jonathan Levine
Written By: Dan Sterling
Starring: Seth Rogen, Charlize Theron
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $30 million to $40 million
Box Office Potential: $45 million
UglyDolls
Official Site: UglyDolls.com/
Distributor: STX Entertainment
Release Date: May 3rd, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG for thematic elements and brief action.
Source: Based on Toy
Genre: Adventure
Keywords:
Living Toys, Underdog
Directed By: Kelly Asbury
Written By: Alison Peck, Robert Rodriguez
Starring: Kelly Clarkson, Janelle Monáe, Blake Shelton, Wanda Sykes, Gabriel Iglesias, Leehom Wang, Bebe Rexha, Charli XCX, Lizzo, Nick Jonas, Pitbull
Production Budget: Reported at $45 million
Box Office Potential: $55 million
Weekend of May 10th, 2019
The Hustle
Official Site: Facebook.com/HustleMovie
Distributor: MGM
Release Date: May 10th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 on appeal for crude sexual content and language.
Source: Remake
Genre: Comedy
Keywords:
Remake, Confidence Men, Professional Rivalry, Genderbending Casting
Directed By: Chris Addison
Written By: Jac Schaeffer, Frank Oz
Starring: Anne Hathaway, Rebel Wilson
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $35 million to $45 million
Box Office Potential: $40 million
Pokémon: Detective Pikachu
Official Site: DetectivePikachuMovie.com/
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: May 10th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG for action/peril, some rude and suggestive humor, and thematic elements.
Source: Based on Game
Genre: Adventure
Keywords:
Missing Person, Private Investigator, Corporate Malfeasance
Directed By: Rob Letterman
Written By: Dan Hernandez, Benji Samit, Rob Letterman, Derek Connolly, Dan Hernandez, Benji Samit, Nicole Perlman
Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Justice Smith
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $100 million
Box Office Potential: $350 million
Poms
Official Site: PomsMovie.com
Distributor: STX Entertainment
Release Date: May 10th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for some language/sexual references.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Comedy
Keywords:
Retirement, Autumn Years, Retirement Home, Cheerleaders
Directed By: Zara Hayes
Written By: Zara Hayes, Shane Atkinson
Starring: Diane Keaton, Jacki Weaver, Pam Grier, Celia Weston, Rhea Perlman
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $10 million to $20 million
Box Office Potential: $30 million
Weekend of May 17th, 2019
A Dog’s Journey
Official Site: ADogsJourneyMovie.com
Distributor: Universal
Release Date: May 17th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG for thematic content, some peril and rude humor.
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Drama
Keywords:
Animal Lead, Family Movie, Reincarnation, Talking Animals
Directed By: Gail Mancuso
Written By: Bruce Cameron, Cathryn Michon, Wally Wolodarsky, Maya Forbes, Bruce Cameron
Starring: Dennis Quaid, Josh Gad
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $20 million to $30 million
Box Office Potential: $45 million
John Wick: Chapter 3 — Parabellum
Official Site: JohnWick.movie
Distributor: Lionsgate
Release Date: May 17th, 2019
MPAA Rating: R for pervasive strong violence, and some language.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Action
Keywords:
Hitmen, Bounty/Price on one's Head, Secret Societies, Fugitive / On the Run
Directed By: Chad Stahelski
Written By: Derek Kolstad, Chris Collins, Marc Abrams, Shay Hatten, Derek Kolstad
Starring: Keanu Reeves, Halle Berry, Laurence Fishburne, Mark Dacascos, Asia Kate Dillon, Lance Reddick, Said Taghmaoui, Jason Mantzoukas, Anjelica Huston, Ian McShane
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $40 million to $50 million
Box Office Potential: $105 million
The Sun is Also a Star
Official Site: Facebook.com/TheSunIsAlsoAStarMovie/
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: May 17th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for some suggestive content and language.
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Drama
Keywords:
Romance, Immigration, Research Scientist
Directed By: Ry Russo-Young
Written By: Tracy Oliver, Nicola Yoon
Starring: Yara Shahidi, Charles Melton
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $10 million to $15 million
Box Office Potential: $35 million
Weekend of May 24th, 2019
Aladdin
Official Site: Movies.Disney.com/Aladdin-2019
Distributor: Walt Disney
Release Date: May 24th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG for some action/peril.
Source: Remake
Genre: Adventure
Keywords:
Remake, Live Action Cartoon, Wish Granters, Romance, Cross-Class Romance, Royalty, Prince/Princess
Directed By: Guy Ritchie
Written By: John August, Guy Ritchie
Starring: Mena Massound, Naomi Scott, Will Smith, Marwan Kenzari, Navid Negahban
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $175 million to $200 million
Box Office Potential: $300 million
Booksmart
Official Site: Booksmart.movie
Distributor: Annapurna Pictures
Release Date: May 24th, 2019
MPAA Rating: R for strong sexual content and language throughout, drug use and drinking - all involving teens.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Comedy
Keywords:
High School, Graduation, Sex Comedy, Buddy Comedy, Actors Making Their Directorial Debut
Directed By: Olivia Wilde
Written By: Sarah Haskins, Katie Silberman, Emily Halpern, Susanna Fogel
Starring: Beanie Feldstein, Kaitlyn Dever
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $20 million
Box Office Potential: $45 million
BrightBurn
Official Site: Brightburn.movie
Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: May 24th, 2019
MPAA Rating: R for horror violence/bloody images, and language.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Horror
Keywords:
Kansas, Unexpected Families, Alien Encounters, Adopted Family, Scary Kids
Directed By: David Yarovesky
Written By: Brian Gunn, Mark Gunn
Starring: Jackson Dunn
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $20 million to $30 million
Box Office Potential: $40 million
Weekend of May 31st, 2019
Godzilla: King of the Monsters
Official Site: Godzilla-Movie.net/
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: May 31st, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for sequences of monster action violence and destruction, and for some language.
Source: Remake
Genre: Action
Keywords:
Creature Features, Kaiju, Remake, Foreign-Language Remake
Directed By: Michael Dougherty
Written By: Michael Dougherty, Zach Shields, Max Borenstein
Starring: Millie Bobby Brown
Production Budget: Reported at $200 million
Box Office Potential: $250 million
MA
Official Site: MaMovie.com
Distributor: Universal
Release Date: May 31st, 2019
MPAA Rating: R for violent/disturbing material, language throughout, sexual content, and for teen drug and alcohol use.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Horror
Keywords:
Ohio, Psychological Horror, Social Outcast, Kidnap
Directed By: Tate Taylor
Written By: Scotty Landes, Tate Taylor, Scotty Landes
Starring: Octavia Spencer
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $10 million to $20 million
Box Office Potential: $35 million
Rocketman
Official Site: Facebook.com/RocketmanMovie/
Distributor: Paramount Pictures
Release Date: May 31st, 2019
MPAA Rating:
Source: Based on Real Life Events
Genre: Drama
Keywords:
Biography, Musicians, LGBT, Addiction, Depression, 1960s, 1970s
Directed By: Dexter Fletcher
Written By: Lee Hall
Starring: Taron Egerton
Production Budget: Reported at $40 million
Box Office Potential: $105 million
Filed under: Monthly Preview, Godzilla: King of the Monsters, UglyDolls, Ad Astra, Aladdin, Long Shot, The Hustle, John Wick: Chapter 3 — Parabellum, Pokémon: Detective Pikachu, The Sun is Also a Star, Rocketman, A Dog’s Journey, The Intruder, Booksmart, Poms, El Chicano, BrightBurn, MA, Godzilla, John Wick