Weekend Estimates: Toy Story has the Best Opening in the Franchise, Still Disappoints
June 23, 2019
Almost none of the films on this week’s list are living up to expectations, at least not according to the weekend estimates. Toy Story 4 is earning the best opening in the franchise with an estimated $118.0 million weekend. This is third-highest opening for an animated film, so there is reason to celebrate. However, it is also much lower than expected and a little more front-loaded than anticipated, so its future might be in doubt. The film is doing better internationally with an estimated opening weekend of $120.0 million in 37 markets. The film had the third biggest opening in Mexico with $23.4 million, putting it behind just the two most recent Avengers movies. It had the biggest opening for an animated film in Brazil with $9.6 million. The film was also a monster hit in the U.K. with $15.0 million. On the other hand, it struggled in China with a second-place $13.4 million opening there; however, most animated films struggle in China. Hopefully the film’s reviews and its A from CinemaScore translate into long legs, because 2019 really needs more success stories at the box office.
Child’s Play isn’t going to have long legs, not if its estimates hold. The film is projected to earn $14.06 million for an internal multiplier of just 2.30. That’s low, even for a horror film. Its reviews are 60% positive and it earned a C plus from CinemaScore, both of which are better than average for a horror film. It should become the biggest hit in the franchise and with a production budget estimated at $10 million, it should do well enough to generate another installment.
Aladdin was the only film to top expectations, earning an estimated $12.2 million over the weekend for a total of $287.51 million after a month of release. It will hit $300 million domestically by the end of the month. Meanwhile, the film has reached $800 million worldwide and it is now on pace for $900 million globally. This film’s legs are one of the few bright spots of the year so far.
Men in Black: International is falling 64% according to estimates to $10.75 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $52.69 million. A lot of people thought this film would earn more than that during its opening weekend. Internationally, the film is earning $30.2 million on 23,000 screens in 65 markets for a two-week total of $129.4 million. The film has already matched its $110 million production budget internationally and should finish with $250 million worldwide. This means it just needs to cover its advertising budget on the home market, which is should be able to do, eventually.
If estimates hold, then The Secret Life of Pets 2 will come within a rounding error of predictions with $10.29 million over the weekend to give it a three-week total of $117.58 million. Internationally, the film pulled in $10.8 million in 42 markets, including $4.14 million during its second-place debut in Australia. The film will earn a profit for Universal; however, the sharp decline from the first installment of the franchise means a third installment is likely too big of a risk.
It looks like Anna will miss the Mendoza Line with an opening weekend of just $3.54 million in 2,114 theater. The film’s reviews are bad and it only managed a mediocre B plus from CinemaScore, so it is not terribly surprising that it struggled at the box office. However, if the overall box office was strong, then this film would have performed a lot better.
Wild Rose is the only limited release of note, earning $56,000 in 4 theaters.
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Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Toy Story 4, The Secret Life of Pets 2, Aladdin, Men in Black: International, Anna, Child’s Play, Wild Rose, Toy Story, Child's Play, The Secret Life of Pets, Avengers