Weekend Predictions: Will June Completely Miss at the Box Office?
June 27, 2019
So far June has been a disaster with no film topping expectations to any significant degree. In fact, Aladdin was the last time we had a film that really beat expectations at the box office and that came out more than a month ago. This weekend is the last chance for June to not be a complete disaster and frankly I’m not optimistic. Annabelle Comes Home is part of the biggest horror franchise around. However, the most recent installment was also the weakest by far and I fear this film will also be significantly below average for the franchise. Yesterday is the smaller of the two films, but in this case this means it doesn’t have to do much business at the box office to be seen as a success. Meanwhile, Toy Story 4 is expected to remain in top spot over the weekend and if its legs are long enough, it could be seen as a real success rather than a profitable disappointment. This weekend last year, there were no major new releases, but Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Incredibles 2 were strong as holdovers.
Toy Story 4 missed expectations last weekend, but still managed a healthy $120 million. This weekend, it hopes to avoid a sharp decline. Sadly, every other film that has opened in first place in June collapsed the following week, so even a 50% decline would be a massive improvement. This is a family film with stellar reviews and an A from CinemaScore, so it could have great legs. On the other hand... 2019. The box office has been terrible for nearly the entire year and shorter than average legs has been part of that problem. I hope I’m wrong here and the film earns $70 million this weekend, but I think it will fall just over 50% to just under $60 million. That’s still more than enough to break even sooner rather than later, but it won’t be the $1 billion hit most were expecting it to be.
Annabelle Comes Home opened on Wednesday with $7.19 million, including $3.5 million during its previews. It made nearly 50% of its opening day figure during its previews. That’s not a good sign for its legs. Its reviews are in the overall positive level, while it earned a B minus from CinemaScore, which is a good score for a horror movie, so I don’t think the short legs are the result of poor quality. I think they are the result of the Sequel Effect. The fans of the franchise race out to see the movie boosting the preview numbers, but those who are not interested in the franchise no longer bother showing up the next day. This spells bad news for the film’s future and there are many who think it will earn less over five days than it was previously expected to earn in just three. I am one of those people. I expect a $26 million five-day opening, which will still give it second place over the three-day weekend. It is also close to what it cost to make, so it should still be a financial success, even if it isn’t living up to the franchise’s average.
Yesterday is a movie about a failing musician who, through means I won’t get into here, wakes up in a world where The Beatles never existed and he’s the only one who can remember their music. The film’s reviews are good, but not great, while it is earning buzz that is also good, but not great. It has a reasonable budget estimated at $26 million, so if it can open with more than $10 million, it will likely be able to match its production budget at the domestic box office. I think that’s likely. In fact, I’m going with $12 million during its opening weekend.
Aladdin should remain in the top five with between $9 million and $10 million crossing $300 million in the process. The film beat expectations during its opening weekend and has been just unstoppable since then. It has legs most films would kill for.
On the other hand, The Secret Life of Pets 2’s legs haven’t been great. That said, the competition has been worse in that regard and I think it will round out the top five with close to $7 million.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Toy Story 4, The Secret Life of Pets 2, The Curse of La Llorona, Aladdin, Yesterday, Annabelle Comes Home, The Conjuring