Friday Estimates: Toy Story Doesn’t Have an Incredible Start
June 22, 2019
Toy Story 4 is on pace to earn the third-best opening weekend for an animated film, but despite this, it will be seen as a disappointment, as many people were expecting a lot more. The film earned $47.39 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $123 million over the full weekend, which is behind Incredibles 2 and Finding Dory on the all-time opening chart for an animated film. It really needed to be higher up that list in order to help 2019 win in the year-over-year competition. At this pace, it won’t even match last year’s number one film, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom. On the positive side, the film is earning 97% positive reviews and managed an A from CinemaScore, so it should have long legs. It will be a hit for Pixar and Disney is not going to lose money on this movie. However, I’m getting tired of big films failing to live up to expectations and I don’t think 2019 is going to be able to turn things around.
Child’s Play was way back in second place with $6.10 million putting it on pace for $15 million over the full weekend. This is lower than our prediction, but by a small enough margin that I’m satisfied. Likewise, I’m satisfied with the film’s 60% positive reviews and its C plus from CinemaScore. These are not great scores, but better than expected for a horror film and likely enough to give the film decent legs. In fact, I suspect this won’t be the last theatrical release in the franchise.
2019 has been a really bad year at the box office. However, there have been a few shining examples, Aladdin being one of them. The film earned $4.0 million on Friday to put it on pace for $14 million over the weekend. It will reach $300 million before the end of June and will ensure there are more of these live-action remakes made in the future.
Men in Black: International did about as well as expected, down 69% to $3.25 million on Friday. It won’t bounce back as much as most sophomore films do, because last Sunday was Father’s Day, meaning it will earn just under $11 million compared to our just over $11 million prediction. That’s close enough to call a victory in my opinion.
The Secret Life of Pets 2 was right behind with $3.17 million and will likely overtake Men in Black: International during the rest of the weekend.
Anna failed to live up to low expectations with just $1.36 million, meaning it will miss the Mendoza Line with less than $4 million over the full weekend. Its reviews are not great, nor is its B plus from CinemaScore, but the film should have still performed better than this.
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Filed under: Friday Estimates, Toy Story 4, The Secret Life of Pets 2, Aladdin, Men in Black: International, Anna, Child’s Play, Child's Play