2019 - Holiday Gift Guide - Part I - First-Run Releases and Franchise Box Sets

November 27th, 2019

It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This year, Thanksgiving is as late as it could have been, which means there’s no way to squeeze in four weeks of regular installments of the gift guide, as well as the December monthly preview, etc. So we are going to have a condensed list this year. That said, there weren’t a ton of first-run releases that would have made this list regardless. More...

Home Market Releases for November 19th, 2019

November 19th, 2019

It is not a prime week on the home market with Dora and the Lost City of Gold being the biggest first run release. It is worth picking up, but not a contender for Pick of the Week. There were a lot of contenders for that title, including Cold War: The Criterion Collection, Fruits Basket: Season One, Part One, and Rock ‘n’ Roll High School: 40th Anniversary Edition. In the end, I went with Rock ‘n’ Roll High School, but all three will end up in my Blu-ray collection before long. More...

Home Market Releases for September 24th, 2019

September 26th, 2019

It is a horrible week on the home market, at least from my perspective. There are no monster hits to talk about, but a flood of middling releases that I can’t really ignore. The biggest first-run release of the week is Yesterday and it is the closest we have to a Pick of the Week contender on this week’s list. That is if you don’t count Crawl and Midsommar, which are hitting VOD this week. More...

Home Market Releases for September 10th, 2019

September 11th, 2019

There are two monster hits coming out this week, Aladdin and John Wick: Chapter 3 — Parabellum, and this has scared away almost all of the competition. Fortunately, John Wick is amazing and a clear Pick of the Week contender. There was only one other film in contention for that title, Echo in the Canyon. Granted, I like Parabellum more, but it was already awarded the Pick of the Week when it hit VOD, so Echo in the Canyon gets the honor this week. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will the Box Office get Angry?

August 15th, 2019

Like last weekend, there are five wide releases coming out this weekend, and again, this is just too many. I can’t imagine all of them will find an audience. In fact, I would be less surprised if none of them really found an audience and Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw remained in first place, than if all of them found an audience. The Angry Birds Movie 2 is the biggest of the new releases, but it debuted on Tuesday, so its demand will be deflated by the weekend. Good Boys has deceptively good reviews, but the buzz isn’t where it should be. 47 Meters Down: Uncaged is a horror film entering a too-crowded market. Meanwhile, both Blinded By the Light and Where’d You Go, Bernadette? will be lucky to avoid the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Crazy Rich Asians opened. It wasn’t a monster hit out of the gate, but it was a bigger hit than anything opening this weekend. More...

Friday Estimates: Hobbs and Shaw has an Impossible Start

August 3rd, 2019

Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw is going to miss predictions, but it did bounce back from weak previews with $23.72 million on Friday. This is higher than Mission: Impossible—Fallout managed during its opening day, despite worse preview numbers. This bodes well for the film’s legs. Its reviews are slightly better than the previous installment in the Fast and the Furious franchise, while its A minus from CinemaScore is a little weaker. Universal is projecting a $60 million opening weekend after this result, but studios tend to underestimate these things so it looks like their movies over-performed in the end, so I think $61 million or $62 million is more likely. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: The Lion King Reigns Over July Record Book

July 23rd, 2019

The Lion King finished on the very high end of expectations opening with $191.77 million topping the previous July weekend record by well over $20 million. It also made more than the rest of the weekend box office combined, as the total weekend haul was $263 million. In fact, The Lion King made more than the entire box office made last weekend ($126 million) and this weekend last year ($172 million). Needless to say, there was strong growth both week-over-week at 109% and year-over-year at 53%. Granted, 2019 is still well back from 2018’s pace, down 7.1% or $490 million at $6.44 billion compared to $6.93 billion, but at least that gap is down significantly from where it was last week. More...

Weekend Estimates: Lion King is Deadly to the Competition, and the Record Book

July 21st, 2019

The Lion King is setting records this weekend with a projected opening of $185.0 million, destroying the previous July weekend record of $169.19 million, set by Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II. This is also the biggest opening for an animated film and biggest opening of any of Disney’s “live-action” remakes. Additionally, not only is the film getting off to a faster than expected start, it should have good legs. Granted, its reviews are mixed, but it is a family film and it did earn an A from CinemaScore, so that should help its longevity. Additionally, the next family film is Dora and the Lost City of Gold, which has only about a 50/50 chance of reaching $100 million in total. As for the film’s international numbers, it added $269.4 million in 52 markets to its early international total, which now sits at $346.0 million, while its worldwide total is already $531.0 million. The film didn’t set many records internationally, but it is earning the second-biggest opening weekend in Brazil with $17.9 million and in Russia at $16.7 million. This would have looked a lot more impressive had Endgame hadn’t set so many records earlier this year, but more on that in a bit. More...

Friday Estimates: Lion King Stampedes the Box Office with $78 million

July 20th, 2019

The Lion King was widely expected to be a monster hit; however, this year there have been countless potential monster hits that have missed expectations. There have been so many that I deemed it wise to be a little more pessimistic in my predictions to prevent being disappointed yet again. Turns out I didn’t need to worry, as the film earned $78 million on Friday. It wasn’t able to match the record for biggest July day; however, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II was the epitome of a Fanboy Film and had very short legs in theaters. The Lion King should have longer legs. Granted, its reviews won’t help, but it did earn an A from CinemaScore, so it is clear its target audience are a lot happier with the film. I still don’t think the legs will be great, but it should top the July weekend record with around $180 million. The industry needed this good news, and it doesn’t end there, as every other film in the top five either matched or exceeded expectations. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Lion King Live Up to the Hype?

July 18th, 2019

The Lion King has the weekend to itself and it is widely expected to have one of the biggest openings of the year. This is true, despite its mixed reviews. In fact, it should earn more during its opening day than the rest of the top five will earn combined over the full weekend. It should also easily earn more than the top five earned this weekend last year, giving 2019 a rare win in the year-over-year competition. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Spider-Man Repeats on Top, but 2019 Takes Another Hit

July 16th, 2019

It was a mixed weekend at the box office. On the one hand, nearly every film in the top five topped expectations, albeit by small margins in most cases. This includes Spider-Man: Far From Home, which led the way with $45.35 million over the weekend. On the other hand, we still saw a serious decline with the overall box office down 31% from last weekend to $126 million. Worse still, this was 24% lower than the same weekend last year and this left 2019 further behind last year’s pace. It is now behind 2018 by 8.6% or $570 million at $6.10 billion to $6.67 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Spider-Man Leads the Way, But Lion King Roars

July 14th, 2019

As expected, Spider-Man: Far From Home is going to remain in first place at the box office this weekend. Fortunately for the box office as a whole, it is beating expectations in terms of dollars with an estimated haul of $45.3 million, which would give is a two-week total of $274.5 million. Internationally, the film is earning $100 million in 67 markets for totals of $573 million internationally and $847 million worldwide. It opened in first place in Italy over the weekend with $6.1 million. This is the film’s final market, but even coasting on holdovers won’t stop it from reaching $1 billion worldwide. More...

Friday Estimates: Spider-Man’s Place on Top is not in Jeopardy

July 13th, 2019

Spider-Man: Far From Home will have no competition for top spot on this weekend’s chart, which was expected. Fortunately, it beat expectations at the box office with $13.65 million on Friday and Sony is projecting a $43.35 million sophomore stint. Its reviews and its A from CinemaScore obviously has had a positive effect on the film’s word-of-mouth and the film will have no trouble steaming past $300 million soon. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Crawl Stands Tall

July 12th, 2019

Crawl looks poised to top expectations after earning $1 million during its previews. It looks likely to grab third place, possibly with $12 million for the weekend. It depends a lot on if audiences like it as much as critics did. That’s a big if, because horror fans tend to be very fickle. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can the New Releases Crawl to the Top?

July 11th, 2019

Last weekend, Spider-Man: Far From Home was the first pleasant surprise at the box office since Aladdin came out in May. This weekend, we have two new releases hoping to continue the pleasant surprises. Unfortunately, neither Stuber nor Crawl are expected to be big hits. In fact, they likely won’t match Far From Home’s sophomore stint combined. Worse still, this weekend last year, both Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation and Skyscraper opened with more than Stuber and Crawl are expected to open combined, meaning 2019 will lose once again in the year-over-year competition. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Spider-Man Hits a Home Run

July 9th, 2019

Spider-Man: Far From Home really brightened up the box office earning $92.58 million over the three-day weekend for a six-day opening of $185.06 million. This is one of the biggest positive surprises of the year and we desperately needed some good news after June. Toy Story 4 and Aladdin held on better than expected and the overall box office surged growing 21% from last weekend to $183 million. This is still lower than this weekend last year, but by only 2.7% and at this point, I’m willing to call that a victory. Year-to-date, 2019 did manage to close ground with 2018, thanks mostly to Far From Home’s strength before the weekend. However, this year is still 8.4% or $540 million behind last year at $5.88 billion to $6.42 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Spider-Man Is Marvelous Worldwide

July 7th, 2019

Spider-Man: Far From Home is getting off to a fantastic start with a three-day weekend haul of $93.6 million giving it a six-day debut of $185.1 million. This is more than it cost to make and it means the film is nearly guaranteed a healthy profit before it reaches the home market, even if it has soft legs. Additionally, its reviews are outstanding and it earned an A from CinemaScore, so its legs should be long for a blockbuster film. Internationally, the film pulled in $238 million on 52,800 screens in 66 markets for totals of $395 million internationally and $580 million worldwide. This was led by a six-day, $33.8 million first place debut in South Korea, while it earned $30.6 million during its second weekend in China for a two-week total of $167.4 million there. More...

Friday Estimates: Has Spider-Man Saved the Summer?

July 6th, 2019

Spider-Man: Far From Home got off to a record-breaking performance and it has since shown better-than-expected legs by earning $32.5 million on Friday for a four-day running tally of $124 million. Because it opened on Tuesday and not Friday, the film should have a better than average internal multiplier, giving it a better than 50/50 chance of cracking $90 million over the three-day weekend. The film cost $160 million to make and it will match that domestically on Sunday. Additionally, its reviews suggest strong word-of-mouth (The CinemaScore still hasn’t been released. I blame the Fourth of July holidays.) and with no direct competition for the rest of the month, it should have a long stay in theaters. It is yet another success story for the M.C.U. and enough to lift 2019 to a rare win over 2018 in the year-over-year competition. This could be a good omen going forward and perhaps we will look back at this weekend as the weekend that 2019 turned things around. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Spider-Man Snap the Streak?

July 3rd, 2019

It has been a long time since we’ve had a pleasant surprise at the box office. In fact, the last film to really beat expectations and earn first place was Aladdin, which came out in May. However, it appears that streak is over, as Spider-Man: Far From Home broke the record for biggest Tuesday with $39.26 million. Additionally, Midsommar earned $1.1 million during its previews, which means July should get off to a faster than expected start. Additionally, there should be some strong holds in the top five as well, with Toy Story 4, Annabelle Comes Home, and Yesterday all looking to earn more than $10 million over the three-day weekend. This weekend last year, Ant-Man and the Wasp opened with $75.81 million. Spider-Man: Far From Home could top that after its record-breaking start and the overall box office does look a little healthier as a result. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Toy Story Can’t Overcome Box Office Woes

July 2nd, 2019

June ended with shrug, as the weekend was neither a success nor a disaster. Toy Story 4 was the top draw, but it fell faster than most family films do, down 51% to $59.70 million. Annabelle Comes Home had the weakest opening in the franchise, while Yesterday did well as counter-programming, but that’s all. The overall box office fell 26% from last weekend and, more importantly, 15% from the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2019 has fallen behind 2018’s pace by a margin of 9.5% or $580 million at $5.52 billion to $6.10 billion. At the beginning of June, I thought 2019 would have cut into 2018’s lead by $100 million, but that clearly didn’t happen. More...

Weekend Estimates: Toy Story has a June-Like Hold with $58 million

June 30th, 2019

Toy Story 4 is earning first place over the weekend with $57.92 million. A few weeks ago, a 52% sophomore stint drop-off by a family film would have been a really bad sign; however, June was so bad that this result matches expectations, more or less. The film now has $236.92 million domestically and should race past $300 million here before it is done. This is a monster hit and more than enough to be profitable, but still disappointing. This film is having a better weekend internationally, earning $80.6 million in 45 markets for totals of $259.6 million internationally and $496.5 million worldwide. This includes a $7.0 million opening in France, which is the best in the franchise. More...

Friday Estimates: Toy Story Dominates Chart, Doesn’t Have Aladdin-Like Legs

June 29th, 2019

It looks like June won’t end on a high note, as Toy Story 4 is falling faster than hoped for. The film earned $17.04 million on Friday, which is almost as much as the rest of the top five earned in total. However, and more importantly, it is 64% lower than the film’s opening Friday and that’s a sharper decline that I was anticipating. Granted, its $196.03 million running tally is in line with budget expectations, so it will break even, even if it doesn’t match expectations. A profitable disappointment. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Yesterday Hits a High Note with $1.25 million

June 28th, 2019

Yesterday earned $1.25 million during its previews on Thursday, which is on the high end of expectations. It means our $12 million prediction could turn out to be a little pessimistic. This depends on if the audiences like the movie more than the critics did. If the film’s CinemaScore is at an A, then it should top our prediction. If it is at a B plus or lower, then it will not. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will June Completely Miss at the Box Office?

June 27th, 2019

So far June has been a disaster with no film topping expectations to any significant degree. In fact, Aladdin was the last time we had a film that really beat expectations at the box office and that came out more than a month ago. This weekend is the last chance for June to not be a complete disaster and frankly I’m not optimistic. Annabelle Comes Home is part of the biggest horror franchise around. However, the most recent installment was also the weakest by far and I fear this film will also be significantly below average for the franchise. Yesterday is the smaller of the two films, but in this case this means it doesn’t have to do much business at the box office to be seen as a success. Meanwhile, Toy Story 4 is expected to remain in top spot over the weekend and if its legs are long enough, it could be seen as a real success rather than a profitable disappointment. This weekend last year, there were no major new releases, but Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Incredibles 2 were strong as holdovers. More...

2019 Preview: June

June 1st, 2019

While the final weekend in May isn’t over yet, we can safely say the month was merely okay. It managed to keep pace with last May, but I was really hoping to cut into 2019’s deficit by a significant margin. June is not looking any better, at least not compared to 2018. There are two potential monster hits, The Secret Life of Pets 2 and Toy Story 4, as well as a trio of $100 million hits, Dark Phoenix, Men in Black: International, and Annabelle Comes Home. On the surface, this looks excellent; however, last June was even better on top with Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom earning a combined $1 billion domestically. Granted, the only other $100 million hit was Oceans 8, so this year should have a lot better depth. I don’t think it will be enough to gain any ground in the year-over-year comparison, which is the only way to really judge how a month is doing at this point. More...

Yesterday Trailer

April 6th, 2019

Musical drama starring Himesh Patel, directed by Danny Boyle opens June 28 ... Full Movie Details.

Jack Malik is a struggling singer-songwriter in a tiny English seaside town whose dreams of fame are rapidly fading, despite the fierce devotion and support of his childhood best friend, Ellie. Then, after a freak bus accident during a mysterious global blackout, Jack wakes up to discover that The Beatles have never existed… and he finds himself with a very complicated problem, indeed. Performing songs by the greatest band in history to a world that has never heard them, and with a little help from his steel-hearted American agent, Debra, Jack’s fame explodes. But as his star rises, he risks losing Ellie—the one person who always believed in him. With the door between his old life and his new closing, Jack will need to get back to where he once belonged and prove that all you need is love. More...