Friday Estimates: Has Spider-Man Saved the Summer?

July 6, 2019

Spider-Man: Far From Home

Spider-Man: Far From Home got off to a record-breaking performance and it has since shown better-than-expected legs by earning $32.5 million on Friday for a four-day running tally of $124 million. Because it opened on Tuesday and not Friday, the film should have a better than average internal multiplier, giving it a better than 50/50 chance of cracking $90 million over the three-day weekend. The film cost $160 million to make and it will match that domestically on Sunday. Additionally, its reviews suggest strong word-of-mouth (The CinemaScore still hasn’t been released. I blame the Fourth of July holidays.) and with no direct competition for the rest of the month, it should have a long stay in theaters. It is yet another success story for the M.C.U. and enough to lift 2019 to a rare win over 2018 in the year-over-year competition. This could be a good omen going forward and perhaps we will look back at this weekend as the weekend that 2019 turned things around.

Toy Story 4 landed in second place with $11.9 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $34 million over the weekend, which is a little better than expected. However, it also did better than expected over the July Fourth holiday, so it will cross $300 million over the weekend rather than having to wait until Monday to do so.

Yesterday is matching expectations nearly perfectly with $3.39 million on Friday putting it on pace for north of $10 million over the three-day weekend. The film has already matched its reported $26 million production budget and, as long as it can find an audience internationally, it will break even before it reaches the home market.

Annabelle Comes Home was right behind with $3.22 million, putting it on pace for $10 million over the weekend.

Aladdin rounded out the top five with $2.59 million on Friday, putting it on pace for close to $8 million over the full weekend. The film had already hit $300 million domestically and reached $900 million worldwide today.

Midsommar missed the top five with $2.22 million on Friday, putting it on pace for just over $6 million over the three-day weekend for a total opening of close to $11 million. This is more than it cost to make, but I fear for its future, as its legs are not great. Its reviews are more than 80% positive, but it only managed a C plus from CinemaScore, as the film is just too weird for mainstream horror audiences.

Filed under: Friday Estimates, Toy Story 4, Spider-Man: Far From Home, Aladdin, Midsommar, Yesterday, Annabelle Comes Home, Marvel Cinematic Universe