Weekend Predictions: Can the New Releases Crawl to the Top?

July 11, 2019

Stuber

Last weekend, Spider-Man: Far From Home was the first pleasant surprise at the box office since Aladdin came out in May. This weekend, we have two new releases hoping to continue the pleasant surprises. Unfortunately, neither Stuber nor Crawl are expected to be big hits. In fact, they likely won’t match Far From Home’s sophomore stint combined. Worse still, this weekend last year, both Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation and Skyscraper opened with more than Stuber and Crawl are expected to open combined, meaning 2019 will lose once again in the year-over-year competition.

Spider-Man: Far From Home will finish its first full week of release with nearly $230 million, which is a fantastic start for a movie that cost $160 million to make. Furthermore, thanks to its Tuesday opening, its amazing reviews, and its A from CinemaScore, it should have better than average legs. In fact, there are some who think it will decline less than 50% to $47 million over the weekend. I’m not that bullish, but I do think it will hold on well enough to earn first place with $42 million, putting it on pace to top the original on the M.C.U. chart.

Toy Story 4 has already reached $300 million, but it will very likely not reach $400 million. It should still reach second place with just over $20 million this weekend, which is a good result.

There is some debate over which film will take third place, as both new releases, Stuber and Crawl, have a real shot at third place. I think Stuber is going to get there, despite its weaker reviews. It has better star power and the action / comedy genre tends to do better during the summer than horror films do. That said, its chances are not that much better and I think it will top out at just under $12 million.

Meanwhile, Crawl is a horror movie about a father and daughter trapped in a storm flood dealing with rising waters and crocodiles. Or alligators. I can’t tell the difference between the two. The film’s reviews are currently 100% positive, which could go a long way in its quest for box office success. Unfortunately, there have been a lot more horror films to come out this year than there usually is and I fear we’ve hit saturation level for this genre. If this film bombs, genre saturation will probably be the reason. It could earn third place with $12 million, but I think it will earn fourth place with just over $11 million.

Yesterday should round out the top five with just over $6 million. It is becoming a solid midlevel hit and should break even early in its home market run.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Toy Story 4, Spider-Man: Far From Home, Aladdin, Stuber, Yesterday, Crawl, Marvel Cinematic Universe