Friday Estimates: Hobbs and Shaw has an Impossible Start
August 3, 2019
Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw is going to miss predictions, but it did bounce back from weak previews with $23.72 million on Friday. This is higher than Mission: Impossible—Fallout managed during its opening day, despite worse preview numbers. This bodes well for the film’s legs. Its reviews are slightly better than the previous installment in the Fast and the Furious franchise, while its A minus from CinemaScore is a little weaker. Universal is projecting a $60 million opening weekend after this result, but studios tend to underestimate these things so it looks like their movies over-performed in the end, so I think $61 million or $62 million is more likely.
The Lion King managed $11.11 million on Friday, putting it over $400 million domestically in the process. This is a little lower than I would have liked, but it should still come within a rounding error of expectations with just over $37 million over the weekend.
Likewise, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood also missed expectations with $5.65 million on Friday, but this puts it on pace for just under $20 million instead of $21 million as predicted. In other words, it’s close enough to be considered a victory in my mind. It is also enough to ensure the film gets to $100 million domestically by the end of its run and very likely enough to ensure profitability.
Toy Story 4 and Spider-Man: Far From Home will match expectations with between $7 million and $8 million. However, it looks like Far From Home will come out on top after leading Toy Story 4 on Friday at $2.22 million to $2.08 million.
Arguably the most impressive Friday result was earned by The Farewell. This film earned sixth place with $707,000 on Friday, despite playing in barely more than 400 theaters. Granted, Yesterday will probably overtake it during the full weekend, but even if that happens, The Farewell will still do well enough to justify further expansion, which will help it reach more major milestones.
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Filed under: Friday Estimates, Toy Story 4, Spider-Man: Far From Home, The Lion King, Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, Yesterday, The Farewell, Fast and the Furious