May 14th, 2020
Sony continues to have a good year, given the circumstances. They just chalked up a win on the DEG Watched at Home Chart for the third week in a row. However, this week it was Bloodshot that topped the chart by rocketing up the chart 11 places. Why the massive jump? It debuted on DVD / Blu-ray. We haven’t seen an increase that dramatic since we’ve been tracking this chart; however, this is also a film that was still in theaters when Covid-19 forced it into VOD early, so there’s mitigating circumstances.
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May 7th, 2020
For the third week in a row, the top five films on the DEG Watched at Home Chart remain the same, although there are changes in the order from last week. Bad Boys for Life remained in first place. Meanwhile, Sony remained the only studio with more than one entry in the in the top five and tied with Disney / Fox with five in the top twenty.
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April 30th, 2020
Bad Boys for Life rose to first place on this week’s DEG watched at home chart, thanks to its release on DVD and Blu-ray. This wasn’t Sony’s only entry in the in the top five. In fact, the studio was tied with Disney / Fox with five in the top twenty.
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April 23rd, 2020
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker remained on top of the chart on this week’s DEG Watched at Home Chart. In fact, the top five were nearly identical to the top five from last week, so we are going to spend some more time looking lower down the list.
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April 16th, 2020
With Covid-19 still running high, and the industry’s focus shifted to what people are watching at home, we’re please to announce the launch of a new chart here at The Numbers. The DEG Watched at Home Top 20 chart, produced by our friends at the Digital Entertainment Group, looks at the most popular films being watched at home each week. This includes traditional DVD and Blu-ray sales, digital sales (“EST”), and digital rentals (“tVOD”), with rankings based on the total consumer spending for a given title across those four categories. Note that it does not currently include PVOD releases, like the recent debut of Trolls: World Tour. The weekly chart will be published each Thursday for the week ending the previous Saturday.
This week, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker led the way, as it did last week. This shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise, because even though the film earned the weakest reviews of the live-action Star Wars films, it is still a Star Wars film.
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April 2nd, 2020
This week Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker comes out on Blu-ray and 4K Ultra HD and if you think that will scare away most of the competition, you will be correct. This isn’t the worst week I’ve see on the home market, but it is close. Unfortunately, not only is the list rather short, there’s nothing here that jumps out as a Pick of the Week contender. On a side note, Amazon is having... issues, which not only delayed this column, but it means if you want to buy most new releases here right away, you will have to deal with third-party sellers or go somewhere else.
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March 29th, 2020
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker closes off the sequel trilogy of the Star Wars franchise. The film missed expectations, both critically and commercially. That said, it was still a $1 billion hit worldwide, so it was massively profitable. Is the film a fun way to end the sequel trilogy, despite the critical reception? Or was it a major misstep like many called it?
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March 17th, 2020
It’s a relatively good week on the home market, as we have Jumanji: The Next Level coming out. On the other hand, that’s the only big release of the week, at least on physical media. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is hitting Video on Demand. Neither are Pick of the Week contenders, although Jumanji could get there when the screener arrives. As for the best of the rest, The Point: Ultimate Edition and Superman: Red Son Blu-ray / 4K Ultra HD are worth checking out. The Point came out a while ago, but the screener arrived late. That said, it is still the best release on this week’s list.
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January 28th, 2020
Bad Boys for Life saved the box office this weekend earning $34.01 million, which was more than The Gentlemen and The Turning earned combined. Granted, the overall box office was still down 27% from last weekend, but it is a post-holiday weekend, so this decline was expected. More importantly, it was 23% higher than the same weekend last year and this helped 2020 continue its early winning streak. 2020 is now ahead of 2019’s early pace by 8.2% / $63 million at $828 million to $765 million. It is still way to early to make any projections for the end of the year, but any lead 2020 can build up now will help it during the slower stretches of the year.
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January 22nd, 2020
The first long weekend of the year was fantastic at the box office as Bad Boys for Life set a number of box office records, including MLK Long Weekend Opening Record, which is arguably the most prestigious of the records it set. Dolittle, on the other hand, managed to avoid embarrassing itself, which is about as good as it was going to get after its troubled production. Overall, the box office had amazing growth from last weekend, improving by 25% to $166 million. More importantly, this is 28% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2020 is ahead of 2019 by 10.5% or $63 million at $666 million to $602 million; however, every little bit helps. We don’t have an Endgame this year, so getting off to a fast start will be more important than usual.
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January 19th, 2020
The weekend estimates are a little more estimated than usual, because it is a long weekend, so studios are predicting Monday’s results the day before they happen, and there’s a larger margin of error than usual. That said, Bad Boys for Life is going to have no trouble topping the old MLK long weekend opening record, as it is projected to earn $59.2 million / $68.1 million over the weekend. Its three-day figure is almost $10 million more than the previous record holder, Ride Along, earned over three days. And yes, it has the opening weekend record. American Sniper was a December release that expanded wide on MLK weekend. On another positive note, the film’s reviews have risen to 76% positive, which is enough to earn a Certified Fresh rating from Rotten Tomatoes, although the site appears to be slow on awarding that. Additionally, the film earned an A-rating from CinemaScore, so audiences liked the film even more than critics did. The audience was 39% African-Americans, compared to 33% Caucasian, while it was 61% male. No real surprises there. The film is earning $38.6 million on 8,200 screens in 39 markets during its international debut, including stellar openings in Germany ($5.1 million) and the U.K. ($5.0 million).
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January 18th, 2020
Bad Boys for Life earned $23.5 million on Friday, which is the biggest opening day in January, breaking the previous record of $17.16 million set by Cloverfield back in 2008. It is also way more than anticipated, and puts it on pace to crush the opening weekend record for MLK weekend, and all of the associated records. In fact, Sony is projecting a $66 million four-day debut as a result of this start. There are reasons to be bullish, including the film’s solid reviews and its A-rating from CinemaScore. The film is already the biggest hit released in 2020 and if this is a sign of things to come, then we are in for a good year.
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January 16th, 2020
It’s the first long weekend of the year and we have two films that are hoping to take advantage of MLK Day to get off to a fast start at the box office. Bad Boys for Life does have the advantage in terms of reviews and hype, not to mention a much more reasonable production budget. Dolittle is an early contender for worst movie of 2020. It also cost $175 million to make, so if it doesn’t make at least $100 million domestically, then it is practically guaranteed to lose a ton of money for Universal. This weekend last year, Glass earned first place with $40 million over the three-day weekend. I’ve seen some predictions that have Bad Boys for Life earning less than that over the four-day weekend, but I’ve also seen some predictions that would top the $48-million MLK long weekend opening record. 2020 does have better depth, so the year’s short winning streak shouldn’t come to an end just yet.
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January 15th, 2020
As previously reported, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker entered the billion dollar club on Tuesday. Over the weekend, it earned $24.2 million in 55 markets for totals, as of the end of the weekend, of $511.4 million internationally and $989.6 million worldwide. It struggled in South Korea, earning second place with $2.16 million on 948 screens over the three-day weekend for a total opening of $3.09 million. I’ll talk about the film that beat it below. Rise of Skywalker did relatively better in the Philippines with an opening of $1.0 million over the weekend, and $3.0 million including previews.
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January 15th, 2020
There were already a record number of films released in 2019 to get to the $1 billion milestone on the worldwide chart, and on Tuesday Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker added to that record when it become the ninth such film. The film earned $1.9 million domestically and $2.6 million internationally, pushing its totals to $481.3 million internationally and $1.001 billion worldwide. This total includes $72.0 million in the U.K. and $61.7 million in Germany. The film has also cracked $50 million in both Japan ($56.4 million) and France ($50.7 million). Amazingly, of the nine films that hit $1 billion, seven were released by Disney directly, while one of the others, Spider-man: Far from Home, is part of the M.C.U. We’ve never seen a studio dominate the box office like Disney has over the past few years and hopefully we will never see it again. As much as I like the M.C.U., for the overall health of the industry, I would rather have more studios thriving.
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January 14th, 2020
It was a mixed weekend with the two wide expansions bettering predictions by small margins, but most of the rest of the top five failed to do so. Granted, no film truly bombed, but the little misses did add up causing the total box office to slip by 6.6% from last weekend hitting $132 million. Dips like this are expected at this time of year, as the big holiday releases are fading and January releases just are not expected to be able to compensate. On the positive side, this weekend was 11% higher than the same weekend last year and that’s helped 2020 get off to an early 6.3% / $24 million lead at $410 million to $386 million. This is not only a faster start than last year, it is actually faster than 2018, which set the record at the end of the year. I’m not saying 2020 will have the biggest total domestic box office; it is far too early to make a prediction like that. However, an early lead can help, as it sets a tone of winning. If the dominant story is a weak box office, then moviegoers could assume the movies coming out are not worth going to see and that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
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January 13th, 2020
The Oscar nominations were announced on Monday, and the results were... well, there were some puzzling results. Joker led the way with eleven nominations. ... A film with 69% positive reviews earned the most nominations. It’s not the worst-reviewed movie to earn a Best Picture Nomination—after all, Bohemian Rhapsody was nominated just last year. However, this film is arguably the worst-reviewed movie to ever earn the most nominations in a single year.
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January 12th, 2020
1917 is matching projections based on Friday estimates perfectly with a weekend estimate of $36.5 million, which would push its total run to $39.2 million so far. This is a little above our prediction, and much higher than studio expectations. It has some of the best reviews in the top ten and a solid A-minus rating from CinemaScore, both of which should help its legs. Its legs will get even longer if it does well in the Oscar nominations tomorrow. Interestingly, the film isn’t skewing as old as I thought it would, as 47% of its audience was in the 18-through-34 age bracket, compared to just 18% at 55 and above. The film is earning $19.92 million from 30 international markets, although it is being released by multiple studios outside the domestic market, which makes tracking more difficult, as no one studio is giving a complete picture. Hopefully we will get enough smaller details to piece things together by Wednesday.
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January 11th, 2020
1917 earned $13.97 million during the first Friday of its wide expansion. Universal is projecting a $36.5 million weekend after this result, which is a little better than we predicted and better than most were expecting after its Thursday previews. Add in the film’s stellar reviews and its likely performance when the Oscar nominations are announced on Monday, and the film should have very long legs. (It earned an A minus from CinemaScore, which is actually lower than I was anticipating.) Universal didn’t have a great 2019 domestically, so an early $100 million hit would help its 2020 run get off to a better start.
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January 9th, 2020
It is a busy weekend with two films opening wide and two films expanding wide. These two groups have vastly different critical receptions and will likely have vastly different box office results. 1917 could be the big winner on Oscar night and that buzz is certainly helping its box office chances. Just Mercy isn’t doing as well with critics or in limited release, so it likely won’t be a major factor during its wide expansion. Like a Boss is earning the worst reviews of the weekend and that’s not helping its box office chances. Finally there’s Underwater, which was made by Fox before the merger, and I don’t think Disney cares if it lives or dies at the box office. This weekend last year was led by The Upside with just over $20 million. There’s a slim chance 1917 will double that figure over the weekend and even if that turns out to be too optimistic, 2020 shouldn’t have too much trouble topping 2019 in the year-over-year comparison.
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January 8th, 2020
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker added $50.5 million in 53 markets to its totals, which now sit at $468.0 million internationally and $918.8 million worldwide. The film will hit $1 billion, likely by the end of the weekend, especially if it is a big hit when it opens in its last two markets, South Korea and the Philippines. While the film won’t match initial expectations, it will be fantastically profitable.
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January 7th, 2020
2020 got off to a great start with The Grudge opening better than expected, while most of the holdovers also held strong. Granted, it is still a post-holiday weekend and the total box office did fall 28% from last weekend earning $142 million. However, this is 2.4% higher than the first weekend of last year and that’s a much more important figure. It’s way too early for the year-to-date comparisons to matter, but 2020 did get off to a faster start than 2019 did and has a 7.7% / $17 million lead at $231 million to $215 million. Again, it is way too early to make any predictions, but any victory now will make it easier for 2020 to keep pace with last year during the inevitable slow times.
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January 5th, 2020
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker isn’t going to live up to projections based on Friday estimates, but it is still expected to land a little north of weekend predictions with an estimated weekend haul of $33.74 million for a three-week total of $450.80 million. A 53% decline at this time of year isn’t a great result and it is clear the film’s reviews and its mere B plus from CinemaScore are not doing it any favors. That said, it is still one of the biggest hits released in 2019, both domestically and worldwide. Internationally, the film is pulling in $50.5 million in 53 markets for totals of $468.0 million internationally and $918.8 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this weekend, but it debuts in South Korea and the Philippines this coming weekend and that should help it hit $1 billion worldwide.
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January 4th, 2020
It looks like it is going to be a good weekend at the box office, as Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is beating expectations at the box office, and it isn’t the only film to do so. The latest in the Star Wars franchise earned an estimated $11.0 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $37 million over the full weekend. The film needed about $31 million to remain on pace to hit $500 million domestically, so with this result, it is no longer a matter of if it will get there, but how fast it will get there. On the other hand, this is not enough to make a realistic run at The Lion King for second place on the 2019 domestic chart.
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January 3rd, 2020
The preliminary final numbers for 2019 have been announced and we had record-breaking results. Overall, the worldwide box office hit $41 billion, with a $30 billion international and $11 billion domestic break-down. Of that total, Disney was responsible for $13.2 billion, or 32% of the worldwide total. This does include its Fox releases, but the studio earned $11.1 billion by itself. This breaks the previous record of $7.6 billion, set by Disney in 2016. It doesn’t just break the previous record; it practically redefines the industry.
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January 2nd, 2020
It is the first weekend of the new year and the only wide release to talk about is a low-budget horror movie, The Grudge, with nearly no buzz and almost no reviews. Unfortunately, it has almost no chance of matching last year’s low-budget horror film, Escape Room. Fortunately, this year’s holdovers, led by Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, will outpace last year’s holdovers giving 2020 its first win during the first weekend of the year.
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January 2nd, 2020
Only four limited release announced box office numbers for the final weekend of 2019, but all four were in the $10,000 club. 1917 led the way with an average of $52,383 in 11 theaters. That was over the three-day weekend. It earned over $1 million during its five-day debut. Just Mercy was well back with an estimated average of $27,250 in four theaters over the three-day weekend. Ip Man: The Finale will probably turn out to be poorly named, because the movie earned over $1 million over the three-day weekend and earned an average of $20,850. I’m sure someone is trying to figure out how to continue the franchise, despite the Finale part of the name. Clemency was next with an average of $17,682 in two theaters. The final film in the $10,000 club was Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, which earned an average of $16,430 during its second weekend of release.
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January 1st, 2020
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker remained on the top of the international chart with an impressive $94.3 million in 52 markets for totals of $363.0 million internationally and $725.2 million worldwide. It got to $750 million worldwide on Monday. The film has had strong runs in a number of major markets, including the U.K. ($51.4 million); Germany ($44.1 million); France ($34.7 million); Japan ($29.2 million); and Australia ($21.2 million). The film opens in Vietnam this weekend and South Korea next weekend, but that’s the end of its run. It will get to $1 billion worldwide, which is more than enough to ensure a healthy profit, but it is far below initial expectations.
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December 31st, 2019
The last weekend of the year had some good news and some bad news. Unfortunately, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker was part of the later, as it fell 59% to $72.39 million over the weekend. However, this was still a dominate performance at the box office, earning more than the next three films combined. It helped the overall weekend remained strong at $197 million. Granted, this is 20% lower than last weekend, but more importantly, it is 5.0% higher than the same weekend last year. Furthermore, 2019 cut the deficit with 2018 by about $100 million since The Rise of Skywalker came out and now it is fighting with 2016 to be the second biggest year at the box office of all time. It is true that the year is still behind 2018 by a massive 4.5% / $520 million at $11.04 billion to $11.56 billion, but not being able to maintain a record pace for two years in a row is hardly a serious concern. Even if you look at ticket sales and take into account inflation, then 2019 was a reasonably good year, as it isn’t too far behind 2017 and hardly the worst we’ve seen in the past decade. There are reasons to be optimistic going into 2020.
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December 29th, 2019
The weekend isn’t looking good for Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, as it is falling a lot faster than I expected. If estimates hold, it will fall 59% to $72.0 million over the weekend for a running tally of $361.8 million after two weeks of release. However, this is still a massive amount of money. It is already the seventh-biggest hit released in 2019, and is on pace to earn third place on that chart, maybe even second. Internationally, the film added $94.3 million in 52 markets for a running tally of $363.0 million internationally and $724.8 million worldwide. That’s without any earnings from South Korea, where it will debut in a couple of weeks. It should have no trouble getting to $1 billion worldwide by the end of its run, but most were expecting a lot more than that. It is yet another profitable disappoint—and we saw too many of those in 2019.
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December 28th, 2019
The last weekend of the year began on Friday and there’s some good news and some bad news. Bad news, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker fell faster than expected, down 71% from its opening Friday to just $26.23 million. Granted, this was still more than enough to blow past the $300 million mark in just eight days, putting it in a tie for fifth fastest to reach $300 million. The film will bounce back over the rest of the weekend and it is projected to earn $76 million over the three-day weekend for a running tally of $366 million. If it ended there, then the film could still break even, eventually. In reality, the film has two more weeks of no serious competition, so it will have no trouble getting past a couple of more major milestones before it is done it box office run.
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December 27th, 2019
The weekend after Christmas tends to be even bigger at the box office than the weekend before Christmas, as people are no longer rushing around making sure they have their last minute gifts and food for Christmas dinner. That said, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker will likely still fall, as monster blockbusters rarely have extremely long legs. The other sophomore films opened so poorly that I can image theater owners will be pushing them to the smallest screens, perhaps with limited showings. As for the new releases, none of Little Women, Uncut Gems, or Spies in Disguise got off to a great start on Christmas Day, but none of them bombed either. This weekend last year, Aquaman led the way with over $52 million, while the top three earned almost exactly $100 million. This year, The Rise of Skywalker could earn $100 million all by itself. The year will end on a very positive note.
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December 24th, 2019
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker recovered a little bit from Sunday’s estimates to earn $177.38 million for the full weekend. While it is always better to beat estimates, this isn’t a large enough margin to really matter in the long run. Its reviews and its B plus are fine for a blockbuster, but aren’t going to help draw in more moviegoers, unlike The Last Jedi. Internationally, the film made $197.7 million in 52 markets to give it a worldwide opening of $375.1 million. It enjoyed the third-biggest weekend in December, the third-biggest day in December, and it is already the 21st biggest worldwide release in 2019. Granted, most thought it would open faster than this, but the film is, at worst, a profitable disappointment.
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December 22nd, 2019
There are some mixed results on the weekend chart with some films topping expectations, while others are struggling mightily. Fortunately, the former category includes Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, which is topping my prediction, albeit by a very small margin at $175.5 million, well below the $190 million projections based on Friday’s estimates. Yesterday, it looked like Rise of Skywalker would have similar legs to The Last Jedi. Granted, this film’s reviews and its B plus rating from CinemaScore are weaker than the previous film, but this one will have more help with the holidays. Christmas break has begun, so that should have boosted Sunday’s numbers, but sadly, that doesn’t appear to be the case. However, and this is an important point, the film is still doing fantastic business, with the third-biggest December weekend ever, and it should be a monster hit in the end.
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December 21st, 2019
Despite earning weaker-than-expected reviews, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is going to have no trouble topping my prediction for the weekend, as it earned an estimated $90 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $190 million over the full weekend. Granted, not everything is rosy, as the film only managed a B plus from CinemaScore. That’s not fatal, but it certainly won’t help its legs. On the other hand, the lack of direct competition and the Christmas break will certainly help it sell many more tickets over the next two weeks.
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December 20th, 2019
Expectations for Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker’s previews had a rather large range, but most were between $30 million and $40 million. It earned $40 million on Thursday. Granted, it’s just the previews and a film like this can be hard to judge, because the hype is just so ubiquitous, but Disney has to be at least a little optimistic after this start. Assuming general audiences like the movie more than the average critic did, it could have similar legs as The Last Jedi had, meaning $200 million during its opening weekend isn’t out of the question. We will know more this time tomorrow when the Friday estimates come out.
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December 19th, 2019
This weekend, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker opens, and it is widely expected to be one of the biggest hits of the year. However, its reviews are merely mixed and this is dragging down expectations. Cats was confusing box office analysts since the first trailer was released and now that its reviews are a mess, things are not looking any better. Finally, Bombshell is expanding wide, but it looks like it won’t be a major factor at the box office this weekend and will have to rely on long legs to carry it to profitability. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Aquaman earned $67.87 million over the weekend. The Rise of Skywalker should earn more than that during its opening day, helping 2019 end on a wildly successful note.
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December 17th, 2019
As expected, Jumanji: The Next Level dominated the competition over the weekend. Fortunately, it did so with a lot more than anticipated, earning $59.25 million. This is more than the rest of the top ten combined. Unfortunately, this happened in part due to the disastrous openings of Black Christmas and Richard Jewell. The overall box office rose dramatically from last weekend earning 31% more at $117 million. More importantly, this was 1.6% higher than the same weekend last year. Granted, that’s a tiny margin, but any win is worth celebrating at this point. Year-to-date, 2019 is still well behind 2018’s pace down 5.7% or $620 million at $10.31 billion to $10.93 billion. That said, if we can chip away at that deficit, then 2019 can at least end on a positive note and save face.
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December 14th, 2019
Jumanji: The Next Level got off to a great start on Friday, earning $19.4 million. Sony is projecting just over $50 million for the weekend after this start, which is well above our $42-million prediction, and in fact on the very high end of range of everyone’s predictions. Furthermore, the film’s reviews remain solid, and, while it doesn’t have a published CinemaScore yet, its word-of-mouth does seem like an asset going forward. Granted, it does have intense competition next weekend, but I have no doubt that Sony is already working on a third installment of the Jumanji reboot.
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December 1st, 2019
Frozen II wasn’t the only box office hit to debut in November, but it was by far the largest. It helped save November and kept 2019 from turning completely sour at the last minute. As for December, we have several potential $100 million hits, plus a couple of monster hits. There are some who think Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker will be the biggest domestic hit released in 2019, but most think it will have to settle for second place. Jumanji: The Next Level should also be a monster hit, even if it doesn’t come really close to its predecessor. As for last December, Aquaman was the undisputed champion, earning almost as much as the next two films combined. Jumanji could top Aquaman at the box office, while we could also have more $100 million films than we had last year. Add in Star Wars and the year should end on a really positive note, making up for the extended slumps we had to deal with through a lot of the year. 2019 won’t be able to close the gap entirely, but it will do enough that we will be able to celebrate.
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October 22nd, 2019
The sci-fi nonology reaches its climax on December 20 ... Full Movie Details.
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April 12th, 2019
The sci-fi nonology reaches its climax on December 20 ... Full Movie Details.
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