Weekend Predictions: Will Bad Boys do a Good Job at the Box Office?

January 16, 2020

Bad Boys for Life

It’s the first long weekend of the year and we have two films that are hoping to take advantage of MLK Day to get off to a fast start at the box office. Bad Boys for Life does have the advantage in terms of reviews and hype, not to mention a much more reasonable production budget. Dolittle is an early contender for worst movie of 2020. It also cost $175 million to make, so if it doesn’t make at least $100 million domestically, then it is practically guaranteed to lose a ton of money for Universal. This weekend last year, Glass earned first place with $40 million over the three-day weekend. I’ve seen some predictions that have Bad Boys for Life earning less than that over the four-day weekend, but I’ve also seen some predictions that would top the $48-million MLK long weekend opening record. 2020 does have better depth, so the year’s short winning streak shouldn’t come to an end just yet.

Bad Boys for Life is the first release in the Bad Boys franchise in nearly 20 years. That’s a long time between installments, possibly too long. That said, it is still the biggest release of a holiday weekend with solid reviews and a healthy amount of buzz. I don’t think it will break any of the MLK weekend opening records, but it could come close. I’m going with a $42 million prediction, which would put it in third place on the all-time chart. I have seen predictions north of $50 million, which would put it just ahead of Ride Along and into the record books. While I’m personally not that bullish, maybe we will have reason to really celebrate on Tuesday when the final numbers show up.

1917 will probably finish in second place over the weekend, but Dolittle could make it a close race. 1917 does have a serious advantage when it comes to reviews, not to mention its Oscar nominations. On the other hand, Dolittle is a family film opening during the first long weekend of the year and that has to count in its favor. Granted, its reviews will hopefully be among the worst of the year. I say hopefully, because I really can’t deal with a full year of movies earning less than 13% positive reviews. I’m going with just under $30 million over four days for 1917, while Dolittle is on track for anything between $20 million and $30 million. Unfortunately, I think the lower end is more likely than the higher end and I’m going with $24 million.

There should also be a close race for fourth place between Jumanji: The Next Level and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, both of which should earn around $10 million during the four-day weekend. Jumanji has the advantage here, because The Rise of Skywalker is losing a lot of theaters this weekend. That said, The Rise of Skywalker is on its way to $500 million domestically, which is more than $200 million head of Jumanji’s domestic run. Both films will earn massive profits for their respective studios.

- MLK Long Weekend Opening Record
- Theater Counts

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Bad Boys For Life, Dolittle, Jumanji: The Next Level, 1917, Bad Boys