Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

International Round Up: Underwater Helps the International Box Office Breath Again

June 4th, 2020

More and more countries are either re-opening cinemas or at the very least lessening restrictions. Japan ended its state of emergency, Norway is opening up, France plans to open on June 22nd, parts of Spain are already opening up. Warner Bros. continues to be optimistic about Tenet’s July opening date. Meanwhile, international box office numbers suggest we should be cautious in our box office predictions. For example, Underwater earned $402,000 during its five-day opening in South Korea, making it the biggest hit in that market in a while. However, that would still be a weak opening day if the box office was truly back to normal. Overall, the ten ten in South Korea was up 10% from last weekend, to reach $1.2 million, so at least there’s progress there. There are plans for some major local films to be released in June and they could help the box office get closer to normal. That would be a big boost to the overall industry. More...

DEG Watched at Home Chart: Reruns Dominate Home Viewing

May 7th, 2020

For the third week in a row, the top five films on the DEG Watched at Home Chart remain the same, although there are changes in the order from last week. Bad Boys for Life remained in first place. Meanwhile, Sony remained the only studio with more than one entry in the in the top five and tied with Disney / Fox with five in the top twenty. More...

DEG Watched At Home Chart: Bad Boys Continues Sony’s Good Year

April 30th, 2020

Bad Boys for Life rose to first place on this week’s DEG watched at home chart, thanks to its release on DVD and Blu-ray. This wasn’t Sony’s only entry in the in the top five. In fact, the studio was tied with Disney / Fox with five in the top twenty. More...

DEG Watched At Home Chart: Skywalker Remains Top Draw

April 23rd, 2020

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker remained on top of the chart on this week’s DEG Watched at Home Chart. In fact, the top five were nearly identical to the top five from last week, so we are going to spend some more time looking lower down the list. More...

VOD Releases: Go on a World Tour from Your Own Home

April 9th, 2020

This could turn out to be the most important weekend for the movie industry in decades. It’s the weekend Trolls: World Tour comes out on the home market. This is the first major motion picture with a planned saturation level release that is not being pushed back due to the Covid-19 outbreak, but is instead coming out on Video on Demand. In a few years, we might look back at this week as the week the movie industry changed fundamentally, if this film is a big enough hit to convince studios that theatrical releases are unnecessary. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Older Release Dominates the New Year

January 14th, 2020

It was a mixed weekend with the two wide expansions bettering predictions by small margins, but most of the rest of the top five failed to do so. Granted, no film truly bombed, but the little misses did add up causing the total box office to slip by 6.6% from last weekend hitting $132 million. Dips like this are expected at this time of year, as the big holiday releases are fading and January releases just are not expected to be able to compensate. On the positive side, this weekend was 11% higher than the same weekend last year and that’s helped 2020 get off to an early 6.3% / $24 million lead at $410 million to $386 million. This is not only a faster start than last year, it is actually faster than 2018, which set the record at the end of the year. I’m not saying 2020 will have the biggest total domestic box office; it is far too early to make a prediction like that. However, an early lead can help, as it sets a tone of winning. If the dominant story is a weak box office, then moviegoers could assume the movies coming out are not worth going to see and that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. More...

Weekend Estimates: 1917 Fires First Shots in 2020 Box Office Race

January 12th, 2020

1917 is matching projections based on Friday estimates perfectly with a weekend estimate of $36.5 million, which would push its total run to $39.2 million so far. This is a little above our prediction, and much higher than studio expectations. It has some of the best reviews in the top ten and a solid A-minus rating from CinemaScore, both of which should help its legs. Its legs will get even longer if it does well in the Oscar nominations tomorrow. Interestingly, the film isn’t skewing as old as I thought it would, as 47% of its audience was in the 18-through-34 age bracket, compared to just 18% at 55 and above. The film is earning $19.92 million from 30 international markets, although it is being released by multiple studios outside the domestic market, which makes tracking more difficult, as no one studio is giving a complete picture. Hopefully we will get enough smaller details to piece things together by Wednesday. More...

Friday Estimates: 1917 has Exemplary Start to Wide Expansion

January 11th, 2020

1917 earned $13.97 million during the first Friday of its wide expansion. Universal is projecting a $36.5 million weekend after this result, which is a little better than we predicted and better than most were expecting after its Thursday previews. Add in the film’s stellar reviews and its likely performance when the Oscar nominations are announced on Monday, and the film should have very long legs. (It earned an A minus from CinemaScore, which is actually lower than I was anticipating.) Universal didn’t have a great 2019 domestically, so an early $100 million hit would help its 2020 run get off to a better start. More...

Thursday Night Previews: 1917 Pulls in $3.5 million in Previews - Update

January 10th, 2020

1917 started its wide release with $3.5 million on Thursday during its previews. This is more than the film made during two weeks of limited release and it had a stellar run in limited release. Some are saying this is a weaker than anticipated start, but I’m not sure that’s the case. Dunkirk earned $5.5 million and if this film just manages the same legs it will open with $32 million, which isn’t that far below our prediction. Furthermore, Dunkirk was a summer release, which would help its previews. Another comparison is American Sniper, which was also a limited release that expanded in January. That film made $5.3 million during its previews on its way to a nearly $90 million wide expansion. If this film does the same, then it will earn nearly $60 million over the weekend. That’s not going to happen, as American Sniper was an anomaly in so many ways that you can’t assume any film will ever match its start, but it does show getting to $35 million after this start isn’t a stretch. This is especially true if mainstream audiences like the film as much as critics did. We won’t have solid evidence either way until the CinemaScore comes out, but I would be surprised if it is less than an A-rating. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can 1917 Race to First Place?

January 9th, 2020

It is a busy weekend with two films opening wide and two films expanding wide. These two groups have vastly different critical receptions and will likely have vastly different box office results. 1917 could be the big winner on Oscar night and that buzz is certainly helping its box office chances. Just Mercy isn’t doing as well with critics or in limited release, so it likely won’t be a major factor during its wide expansion. Like a Boss is earning the worst reviews of the weekend and that’s not helping its box office chances. Finally there’s Underwater, which was made by Fox before the merger, and I don’t think Disney cares if it lives or dies at the box office. This weekend last year was led by The Upside with just over $20 million. There’s a slim chance 1917 will double that figure over the weekend and even if that turns out to be too optimistic, 2020 shouldn’t have too much trouble topping 2019 in the year-over-year comparison. More...

2020 Preview: January

January 1st, 2020

It’s the year 2020, the year where we find out how many times you can say, “Well, hindsight is 20/20.” before you get punched. On the positive side, while December wasn’t a great month, it was good enough to help 2019 end on a positive note, a positive note that should continue into January. There are no real potential monster hits coming out this month, but there are three films that have a real shot at $100 million domestically. These are, in alphabetical order, 1917, which will rely on Awards Season to get to the century mark. Bad Boys for Life will have a much, much easier time getting to $100 million, assuming people still care about the franchise 17 years later. Finally, Dolittle is looking like a disaster with a really troubled production; however, a $100 million run isn’t out of the question and if it can get there, it will at least save face. As for last January, Glass was the biggest hit of the month in terms of raw dollars, but The Upside was more impressive, as it is one the biggest hits in STX Entertainment’s history. We need two of the three potential $100 million hits to reach that mark to keep pace with last year, but we also have one more weekend to get there. More...

Underwater Trailer

November 25th, 2019

Sci-fi thriller starring Kristen Stewart opens January 10 ... Full Movie Details.

A crew of underwater researchers must scramble to safety after an earthquake devastates their subterranean laboratory. More...