Weekend Predictions: Will Star Wars Heat up the Christmas Week Box Office?
December 19, 2019
This weekend, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker opens, and it is widely expected to be one of the biggest hits of the year. However, its reviews are merely mixed and this is dragging down expectations. Cats was confusing box office analysts since the first trailer was released and now that its reviews are a mess, things are not looking any better. Finally, Bombshell is expanding wide, but it looks like it won’t be a major factor at the box office this weekend and will have to rely on long legs to carry it to profitability. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Aquaman earned $67.87 million over the weekend. The Rise of Skywalker should earn more than that during its opening day, helping 2019 end on a wildly successful note.
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is the fifth Star Wars film released by Disney and it will be the last for a few years. Solo underperformed and the studio decided it was over-saturating the market. This is probably a wise decision, especially given this film’s reviews. They are not bad for a blockbuster, but they are certainly not up to the level The Last Jedi earned. They have certainly negatively affected the film’s box office chances and there are very few people expecting the film to open with more than $200 million. In fact, I’ve seen some predictions below $150 million. That would make it the worst of the three December releases in the Disney franchise. However, it is important to remember, this would still be the fourth-highest opening weekend in December. On the high end, it could come close to $200 million over the weekend, but I think $175 million is more likely. This is still a monster hit and it will have no trouble becoming one of the biggest box office smashes of the year. It just won’t live up to original expectations.
Jumanji: The Next Level will be pushed into a distant second place. In fact, the film would be lucky to avoid a 60% decline from its opening weekend. This puts $24 million on the very high end of expectations, while dropping below $20 million isn’t impossible. I’m not that pessimistic, but $22 million isn’t a great run either. That said, there’s no direct competition for the rest of the year and two straight weeks of holidays to boost its box office numbers. In fact, it should see healthy growth next weekend.
Cats has two target audiences. Firstly, there are those who love the musical and want to see it on the big screen. Secondly, there are those who love train wrecks and can’t wait to see what kind of disaster this film will be. The critics are not being kind to the movie, that said, a significant portion of the negative reviews still call it fascinating and that could help it at the box office. Look for between $12 million and $13 million over the weekend, while its legs likely won’t be as long as usual for this time of year.
Frozen II should be next with over $10 million. It’s losing theaters and has been out for a while. On the positive side, the holidays have begun and so families will have more time to watch movies over the next two weeks.
Bombshell opened with a theater average of $79,789 in four theaters last weekend and that bodes well for its semi-wide expansion this weekend. On the other hand, the film’s reviews are merely good and not great and it will still be playing in less than 1,500 theaters. That said, with a little luck, it could compete for fourth place with just under $10 million. On the low end, it could struggle to top $5 million. I’m going with $9 million.
- Theater Counts
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- Star Wars at the box office
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Frozen II, Jumanji: The Next Level, Cats, Bombshell, Star Wars