Friday Estimates: Rise has a Sharp Fall, but Still Dominates Box Office
December 28, 2019
The last weekend of the year began on Friday and there’s some good news and some bad news. Bad news, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker fell faster than expected, down 71% from its opening Friday to just $26.23 million. Granted, this was still more than enough to blow past the $300 million mark in just eight days, putting it in a tie for fifth fastest to reach $300 million. The film will bounce back over the rest of the weekend and it is projected to earn $76 million over the three-day weekend for a running tally of $366 million. If it ended there, then the film could still break even, eventually. In reality, the film has two more weeks of no serious competition, so it will have no trouble getting past a couple of more major milestones before it is done it box office run.
Jumanji: The Next Level grew more than anticipated, up 67% from last Friday to $11.7 million for the day and putting it on pace for $33 million over the weekend. It will roar past $200 million domestically early in 2020 and it has already made enough worldwide to justify another installment in the franchise.
Frozen II climbed back into third place on Friday with just under $6.00 million, putting it on pace for $17 million over the three-day weekend. This is exactly as predicted, so there’s not much more to say about this result. It is more interesting to talk about its Thursday box office, as the film crossed $400 million on that day, becoming the fifth film released in 2019 to get to that milestone. It reached that milestone in just 35 days, 120 days faster than its predecessor reached the same milestone.
Little Women slipped to fourth place, with $5.75 million on Friday putting it on pace for $16 million over the three-day weekend for a total opening of $28 million. This is disappointing, but not terrible. Its reviews and its Awards Season success suggest long legs, so it should still have a solid box office run, but unless it is the big winner on Oscar night, it won’t be a $100-million hit.
Spies in Disguise was next with $4.63 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $13 million over the full weekend and $22 million over five. Its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore are better than its box office numbers, so hopefully it will have long legs.
Uncut Gems fell even further than anticipated to just $3.32 million on Friday, putting it on pace for over $9 million over the three-day weekend, under $19 million over five, and a running tally of close to $20 million including its limited release run. The film could turn things around, if its reviews translate into Awards Season success. However, its mere C plus from CinemaScore suggests audiences were not expecting the film they got and that’s never a good way to develop long term success.
- Weekend Predictions
- 2019 Domestic Box Office Chart
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- Christmas Releases
- Theater Counts
- Fastest to $300 million
- Fastest to $400 million
Filed under: Friday Estimates, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Frozen II, Spies in Disguise, Uncut Gems, Jumanji: The Next Level, Little Women, Jumanji