Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Disney Decimates the Competition on its way to $13.2 Billion Record in 2019

January 3rd, 2020

The preliminary final numbers for 2019 have been announced and we had record-breaking results. Overall, the worldwide box office hit $41 billion, with a $30 billion international and $11 billion domestic break-down. Of that total, Disney was responsible for $13.2 billion, or 32% of the worldwide total. This does include its Fox releases, but the studio earned $11.1 billion by itself. This breaks the previous record of $7.6 billion, set by Disney in 2016. It doesn’t just break the previous record; it practically redefines the industry. More...

Home Market Releases for December 10th, 2019

December 11th, 2019

As Christmas rapidly approaches, the number of home market releases shrinks. That said, we do have three $100 million hits on this week’s list, Hustlers, It: Chapter Two, and Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood. All three are worth picking up, but Hustlers and Linda Ronstadt: The Sound of My Voice are Pick of the Week contenders, with the former winning out. More...

Home Market Releases for November 19th, 2019

November 19th, 2019

It is not a prime week on the home market with Dora and the Lost City of Gold being the biggest first run release. It is worth picking up, but not a contender for Pick of the Week. There were a lot of contenders for that title, including Cold War: The Criterion Collection, Fruits Basket: Season One, Part One, and Rock ‘n’ Roll High School: 40th Anniversary Edition. In the end, I went with Rock ‘n’ Roll High School, but all three will end up in my Blu-ray collection before long. More...

Friday Estimates: Maleficent isn’t Evil, but it is far from Good

October 19th, 2019

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil wasn’t expected to be a monster hit, but its previews gave reason to be optimistic. That optimism is gone as a result of Friday’s estimates. The film pulled in just $12.5 million on Friday, meaning it will have to have nearly as good legs as the original had just to avoid opening below the low end of expectations. That seems unlikely, especially with its weaker reviews, although it did manage the same A rating from CinemaScore. Maybe it will really bounce back today, but we won’t really know till the weekend estimates come out tomorrow. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Joker Destroys Box Office, Nearly Reaches Century Mark

October 8th, 2019

Joker easily dominated the weekend box office crushing Venom’s October record in the process. The film’s $96.20 million opening was more than 60% of the $150 million total box office earned this weekend. Furthermore, the weekend total was 64% more than last weekend, which is great news for 2019, as it has been struggling. Unfortunately, this is still 15% lower than the same weekend last year when Venom had A Star is Born opening strong as counter-programing. Year-to-date, 2019 has pulled in $8.46 billion, which is a lot, but it is 5.2% or $470 million behind 2018’s record-setting pace of $8.93 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Joker Takes a Bite Out of Venom

October 6th, 2019

Joker is not only dominating the weekend, likely earning more than the rest of the films in release combined, but it will also top Venom’s October record by more than $10 million. Its domestic weekend estimate is $93.5 million, which is only dwarfed by its international debut. The film is projected to earn $140.5 million on 22,500 screens in 73 markets during its opening weekend. Highlights includes A $16.3 million debut on 1,418 screens in South Korea, which is a record opening for Warner Bros. in that market. It wasn’t able to break records in the U.K., but is still very impressive at $14.8 million on 669 screens, while it also cracked $10 million in Mexico ($13.1 million on 4,684 screens) and Russia ($10 million on 1,907. More...

Friday Estimates: Another Day, Another Record for Joker

October 5th, 2019

Joker opened with an outstanding $39.9 million on Friday, topping the previous biggest October day record of $33.08 million set last year by Halloween. This film does have weaker reviews and only a B plus from CinemaScore, which means its word-of-mouth won’t be as great. Additionally, a larger percent of its opening day came from previews, which is another sign it likely won’t have great legs. That said, it would really have to stumble to not get at least close to $100 million over the full weekend. It is not doing quite as well internationally, but close enough that it could earn enough during its opening weekend that it will cover its entire production budget. It will break even before Halloween. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Joker Have the Last Laugh?

October 4th, 2019

Joker is the only wide release of the week and this should help it thrive at the box office. In fact, there are many who think it will top Venom’s October record. Venom set that record this weekend last year, so if it breaks the record that’s good news for 2019 in the year-over-year comparison, right? It’s not that simple, as A Star is Born also debut this weekend last year and that depth will likely prove too much for 2019 to overcome. More...

International Box Office: Ad Astra Shines on Top of the Chart

October 3rd, 2019

Ad Astra spent a second weekend on top of the international box office earning $18.0 million in 50 markets for totals of $53.5 million internationally and $88.9 million worldwide. The film had an elite opening in Russia with $3.16 million on 1,337 screens, earning first place in the process. On the other hand, it failed to crack $1 million during its debuts in both Brazil ($900,000) and Italy ($898,000). More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Abominable Leads Small Box Office

October 1st, 2019

Abominable led the way at the box office this weekend, but there wasn’t a lot to celebrate. That film merely did okay for this time of year, while there were no other new releases to boost the box office. This led to a 25% drop-off from last weekend, down to a mere $92 million. Worse still, this is 13% lower than the same weekend last year when Night School and Smallfoot were a strong one-two box office punch. We’ve had a couple of winning weeks in a row, so this loss doesn’t hurt 2019’s chances too much and the deficit is practically the same as it was last week at 5.6% or $490 million at $8.28 billion to $8.77 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Abominable Earning Average-Sized Opening

September 29th, 2019

It is a mixed bag at the box office this weekend. None of the films are bombing, there are also no wild success stories either. Abominable is leading the way with an estimated $20.85 million opening. This is a little below expectations, but still a fine opening for this time of year. Additionally, its prospects have improved over the weekend, so it is clear its reviews and its A rating from CinemaScore have helped its word-of-mouth and that should help its legs going forward. The film also earned an estimated $8.8 million internationally in 30 markets for an early international total of $10.2 million It is still too early to judge how the film will do overseas. More...

Friday Estimates: Abominable Grows on its Opening Day

September 28th, 2019

Abominable bounced back a bit during Friday to earn $5.69 million. This is still behind Smallfoot’s opening Friday, but it is better than its previews. This is strong evidence that the film’s reviews and its A rating from CinemaScore is already having a positive effect. $20 million is now much more likely than it was yesterday at this time, while with a little luck, it will match our $22 million prediction. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Abominable Live Up to Its Name or will it be ... Bominable?

September 26th, 2019

The last weekend of September has been a great week to release a second-tier animated film and there have been several $100 million hits released this week in the past. This year, Abominable is hoping to succeed in this role. It does have a lot going for it, including no competition, direct or otherwise, and reviews that are, while not spectacular, certainly a selling point. On the other hand, the buzz hasn’t grown the way it should. This weekend last year, Night School led the way with Smallfoot having a strong second place opening. Unfortunately, it looks like 2019’s small winning streak will come to an end, because it is unlikely Abominable will match last year’s number one film. It might not even match last year’s second place film. More...

International Box Office: Ad Astra is the Real Star of the International Chart

September 26th, 2019

Last week, the international box office was dominated by international releases with six of the top seven films coming from overseas. This week, there is only four films that earned more than $10 million and only one of them wasn’t a Hollywood release. Ad Astra led the way earning $26 million in 44 markets during its first weekend of release. The film’s biggest market was the U.K., where it opened in second place with $2.83 million in 616 theaters. It did as well in South Korea with $2.32 million on 853 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $2.68 million. The film also cracked $2 million in France ($2.7 million) and Japan ($2.2 million). The film has yet to open in several major markets, so it is far from done. That said, it was an expensive movie to make and while it is doing better internationally, it isn’t doing well enough to break even any time soon. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Downton Opens High with New Focus Features Record

September 23rd, 2019

It was a strong weekend with almost every film in the top five topping predictions. Downton Abbey dominated the chart with $31.03 million, breaking the record for an opening weekend by a Focus Features film in the process. Both Ad Astra and Rambo: Last Blood also beat expectations, albeit by much, much smaller margins. This helped the overall box office grow 12% from last weekend to $123 million. More importantly, this is 34% higher than the same weekend last year. I was expecting substantial growth, but not this much growth. Granted, 2019 is still behind 2018, but the lead has been cut to 5.5% or $470 million at $8.14 billion to $8.61 billion. Furthermore, if we have a few more good weeks, then optimism will actually return to the box office analysis. More...

Weekend Estimates: Downton goes Downtown with $31 million

September 22nd, 2019

Downton Abbey is not only going to earn first place on the weekend box office chart, but it is going to set the record for Focus Features with an opening weekend of $31.0 million. This is substantially more than predicted and substantially more than Focus Features’ previous best opening weekend of $22.69 million earned by Insidious Chapter 3. Additionally, thanks to its reviews, its A-rating from CinemaScore, and its more mature target demographic, it has a real chance at $100 million domestically. Or it could have a serious Fanboy Effect, because it is a TV adaptation. We will know more next weekend. More...

Friday Estimates: Downton Abbey has Class

September 21st, 2019

Downton Abbey stunned analysts with an opening day of $13.38 million on Friday. However, this does include two days of previews, so keep that in mind going forward. The film’s reviews are in the 80% range, while it managed an A from CinemaScore. Both of these results suggest longer than average legs, but not enough to deal with the two days of previews. It should open with more than $30 million, which is not only much better than anticipated, it will be the best opening weekend for Focus Features. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will the New Releases Shoot for the Stars?

September 20th, 2019

A better than expected opening by Hustlers and a stronger than expected hold by It: Chapter Two helped 2019 earn its second win in the year-over-year comparison last weekend. Meanwhile, we have three new releases hoping to extend the winning streak this weekend. Unfortanately, all three films have something holding them back. For example, Ad Astra was made by Fox before the merger with Disney and I’m not sure Disney is 100% behind this movie. Downton Abbey is based on a recent TV show and people are not always willing to go to the theater and spend money on something they could recently watch on TV for free. Finally, Rambo: Last Blood is earning weak reviews and that could hurt its box office chances. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, The House with a Clock in its Walls opened with $26.61 million, while A Simple Favor was the only other film to earn more than $10 million. This weekend, we could have no movie earn more than $20 million, but there are five films that should have no trouble getting to $10 million. This depth could help extend 2019’s winning streak to three weeks. More...

International Box Office: It Leads a Very International Week

September 19th, 2019

There were seven films to earn more than $10 million on the international chart this past weekend and It: Chapter Two was the only Hollywood release among them. The film managed $46.6 million on 20,605 screens in 78 markets for totals of $169.4 million internationally and $322.1 million worldwide. The film’s only opening this weekend came in France where it earned first place with $4.6 million on 600 screens. It also did well in the U.K. with $3.9 million on 630 screens earning second place during its second weekend of release for a total of $16.5 million after two weeks of release. It also earned $3.9 million during its second weekend of release in Germany for a total of $12.6 million so far. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Hustlers Helps Box Office Thrive

September 17th, 2019

It: Chapter Two and Hustlers both topped expectations by large margins over the weekend and that helped the overall box office earn $110 million. Granted, this is 20% lower than last weekend; however, this was also 2.2% higher than the same weekend last year and that is by far the more important detail. 2019 is still behind 2018, but the gap closed by a little bit and is now at 5.9% or $500 million at $7.98 billion to $8.48 billion. Fortunately, the international box office is doing better and overall 2019 is merely mediocre and it still has time to improve. More...

Weekend Estimates: Hustlers and It Both Surprise Over Weekend

September 15th, 2019

It is shaping up to be a great weekend at the box office with both Hustlers and It: Chapter Two topping expectations. It: Chapter Two is going to repeat on top, with an estimated sophomore stint of $40.74 million for a running tally of $153.80 million. This represents a 55% decline, which is certainly fantastic for a horror sequel. It still likely means $250 million domestically is out of the question, but even $200 million is amazing for a movie that cost less than $70 million to make. Internationally, the film pulled in another $47 million in 78 markets for a two-week total of $169.5 million. It has already made over $300 million worldwide, which might be enough to break even, depending on its advertising budget and exact share of the box office. If not, it will break even very shortly. More...

Friday Estimates: Hustlers Helps the Box Office Get Lucky on Friday the 13th

September 14th, 2019

Hustlers did surprisingly well to earn first place on Friday with an estimated $13.1 million. This puts it on pace for $32 million over the full weekend, which is more than enough for the biggest opening in STX Entertainment’s history and the biggest live-action opening in Jennifer Lopez’s career. It is not that far behind Crazy Rich Asians’ five-day opening and will also be Constance Wu’s best opening. There’s more good news: The film’s reviews are the best in the top ten at 87% positive and STX Entertainment has tended to have a lot of success giving their films long legs. The Bad Moms franchise is evidence of that. On the downside, the movie only managed a B minus from CinemaScore, but it is a dark comedy and those can be divisive. Additionally, while it earned first place on Friday, it won’t stay there for long. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Hustle Con Its Way Past It?

September 12th, 2019

There are only two wide releases this weekend, Hustlers and The Goldfinch. The buzz surrounding Hustlers has grown at the perfect time, but it has a non-zero chance of topping It: Chapter Two for top spot on the weekend box office chart. On the other hand, The Goldfinch is seen as busted Oscar-bait and will only open in the top five due to extremely weak competition. This weekend last year, The Predator earned first place with close to $25 million, while the other two wide releases earned about that combined. This means last year’s three new releases will be more potent than this year’s two new releases, but I think 2019 will earn a comfortable win, in part thanks to this year’s much better depth. More...

Theater Averages: Chapter Two Earns Another Number One

September 12th, 2019

It: Chapter Two not only earned first place on the overall box office, it earned first place on the theater average chart with an average of $19,926. Linda Ronstadt: The Sound of My Voice was next with an average of $16,176 in seven theaters; this is an excellent result for a documentary. Next up might be my favorite box office result of the year, as Mr. Klein and Ms. Purple had nearly identical openings at $15,915 and $15,734 respectively. Mr. Klien and Ms. Purple just seem like a nice couple. I’m glad they met. ... Moving on. More...

International Box Office: It Earns Itself First Place

September 12th, 2019

It: Chapter Two matched its domestic opening weekend internationally, earning $94.0 million on 26,790 screens in 75 markets over the weekend. Unlike the film’s domestic debut, its international opening was close to on par with the first It’s debut, in local currencies not counting inflation. In fact, Chapter Two had a faster start in Russia earning $9.20 million to $7.28 million for its predecessor. The film had nearly identical openings in both Mexico ($9.14 million) and in the U.K. ($9.06 million). The film opens in France this weekend, while it doesn’t finish off its international run until it debuts in Japan in November. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: It Dominates the Chart, Maybe Reinvigorates the Box Office

September 10th, 2019

It: Chapter Two dominated the box office by almost as large a margin as expected. It certainly did well enough that I’m considering it a victory. It earned $91.06 million over the weekend, which is almost exactly what the total box office made last weekend. More importantly, it is almost as much as the top five made this weekend last year, giving the weekend box office a massive increase of 48% from last weekend to $136 million and more importantly, this was 12% more than the same weekend last year. 2019 is still behind 2018 by a massive margin of $500 million or 6.0% at $7.83 billion to $8.33 billion. However, we did catch up to 2017’s ticket sales pace, so as long as we can maintain this pace for the rest of the year, it won’t look like a disaster at the end of the year. More...

Weekend Estimates: Chapter Two is Number Two on September Chart

September 8th, 2019

It: Chapter Two is missing expectations with an estimated opening weekend of $91.0 million. However, while this is 10% lower than predicted, it is still more than enough to earn second place on the September chart. In fact, it is nearly 70% higher than the third biggest September debut of all time, The Nun, which opened this weekend last year. That’s really going to help the year-over-year comparison. As for the film’s long-range chances, they are mixed. Horror movies rarely have long legs and this is also true of sequels, so horror sequels almost never do well long-term. Additionally, this film’s reviews are much weaker than the first film’s reviews, but on the positive side, it did match its predecessor when it came to the CinemaScore, as both earned B plus ratings. More...

Friday Estimates: It on Pace for Second-Best September Debut

September 7th, 2019

It: Chapter Two isn’t living up to predictions or its predecessor, but it is still on pace to become one of the best September debuts of all time. The film pulled in $37.4 million on Friday, putting it on pace for just over $90 million over the full weekend. It is going to have shorter legs that the original had, thanks in part to the Sequel Effect, but also due to its weaker reviews. On the positive side, it matched the original’s B plus from CinemaScore, so that’s a good sign. More...

Thursday Night Previews: It Slips, Still on Pace for Monster Opening

September 6th, 2019

It: Chapter Two earned $10.5 million during its previews last night. This is the second best previews in September, behind the original It, which earned $13.5 million. I was expecting the gap to be a closer than that. If the two films had the same legs, then Chapter Two would earn $96 million over the full weekend. However, this is probably asking too much for a number of reasons. Firstly, sequels tend to have shorter legs. Secondly, this film’s reviews are weaker than the reviews earned by the first film. Finally, previews for Chapter Two started two hours earlier than they did for the first film, starting at 5 pm instead of 7 pm. Warner Bros. is projecting an opening weekend of $85 million based on this result, but studios tend to underestimate these things so it looks like the movie overperformed. I think just over $90 million is more likely. More...

Weekend Predictions: It is All We Got

September 5th, 2019

It’s going to be a short prediction column, because there’s not much to talk about. It: Chapter Two is the only wide release of the week and there weren’t even any wide releases last weekend to give It any real competition. In fact, two of the likely top five films have already been in theaters for more than a month. last year, The Nun led the way with $53.81 million. It: Chapter Two could double that during its opening weekend. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Almost Nothing Worked on Labor Day Long Weekend

September 4th, 2019

There were no new wide releases this past weekend and unfortunately, the holdovers weren’t able to take advantage. Angel Has Fallen remained on top, but it did so with only $11.80 million over the three-day weekend. This wasn’t enough to match expectations or last year’s number one film, Crazy Rich Asians. The overall box office fell 18% from last weekend, falling to $89 million. Worse still, this is 10% lower than this weekend last year, putting 2019 behind 2018 by a 6.2% or $510 million at $7.64 billion to $8.15 billion. On the positive note, this is likely the low point of the year and the Fall looks a lot stronger, starting with It: Chapter Two this coming weekend. More...

2019 Preview: September

September 1st, 2019

Summer ended on a thoroughly mediocre note, with more August releases missing expectations than topping them. That said, it wasn’t a complete mess, with Hobbs and Shaw doing extremely well internationally, and some others heading towards profitability, if not becoming spectacular hits. September, on the other hand, should be one of the best months in the year, at least on the year-over-year competition. The month starts with It: Chapter Two, which could open with more than $100 million. By comparison, last September, only one film, The Nun, earned more than $100 million in total. Additionally, Abominable has a slim but realistic chance at reaching the $100 million milestone, so it should be a great month on the year-over-year comparison. 2019 isn’t going to catch up to 2018, but it should narrow the gap considerably. More...

It: Chapter Two Trailer

May 10th, 2019

Horror movie starring Bill Skarsgård opens September 6 ... Full Movie Details. More...