December 18th, 2018
It’s an odd week on the home market, as there are four major first run releases coming out this week, but almost nothing else. Fun fact, I got screeners for all four of these films, although one of them arrived too late to review. Of these four, A Simple Favor is clearly the best and the DVD / Blu-ray / 4K is a contender for Pick of the Week. Its only competition is the 4K release for 2001: A Space Odyssey.
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December 17th, 2018
The House with a Clock in its Walls is one of two fantasy family films starring Jack Black that came out this fall. I got solicitations for screeners for both films, but I passed on Goosebumps 2 and choose to review this film instead. Did I make the right call?
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November 28th, 2018
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It is the week after Thanksgiving, which is a terrible week to release a DVD / Blu-ray. Black Friday and Cyber Monday are over, so a lot gifts are already bought for people who might be interested in a DVD / Blu-ray to watch. That’s not to say there’s nothing on this list that’s worth picking up. There are a few items, but Searching is clearly the best and the Blu-ray is the only real contender for Pick of the Week.
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October 11th, 2018
There are three wide releases coming out this week. First Man is the biggest release and has the best reviews with 90% positive reviews. Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween’s reviews are much, much worse, but it should still do relatively well at the box office. It is a horror movie for kids opening just before Halloween. The final wide release of the week is Bad Times at the El Royale, which is earning really good reviews, but the buzz is rather quiet. These films will have to compete with Venom and A Star is Born, both of which are expected to do big business during their second weekend of release. This weekend last year, Happy Death Day opened with $26.04 million; however, it was the only film that earned more than $20 million over the weekend. This year, we could have as many as four films earn more than $20 million.
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October 9th, 2018
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Venom topped the high end of expectations over the weekend with $80.26 million, breaking several October records. A Star is Born also topped expectations with $44.26 million during its opening weekend and should have very long legs. Overall, the box office pulled in $177 million, which is 68% more than last weekend and this weekend last year. That’s a strange coincidence. Year-to-date, 2018 was able to stretch its lead over 2017, which now sits at 9.9% or $810 billion at $8.98 billion to $8.16 billion. I was worried we might be down to a $500 million lead at this point, but 2018 continues to impress.
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October 7th, 2018
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If studio estimates are correct, then Venom has crushed expectations over the weekend earning $80.03 million. This easily destroys the October weekend record, previously held by Gravity. The film is also projected to pull in $125.2 million on 20,800 screens in 58 markets. On the other hand, the film earned 32% positive reviews and a B plus from CinemaScore, so I don’t expect good legs going forward. That said, Sony’s share of the film’s global debut is likely very close to the film’s $100 million production budget, so unless the advertising budget was unreasonable, even really short legs won’t prevent the movie from earning a profit.
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October 4th, 2018
The first weekend of October could see records fall, as most have Venom opening with between $60 million and $70 million. The movie with the line “Turd in the wind” in its trailer is expected to open better than Gravity did. On the other hand, A Star is Born is expected to open in second place, but have much, much longer legs and I believe it will be the bigger hit in the end. Both Night School and Smallfoot will earn more than $10 million over the weekend, which will help the overall box office performance. This weekend last year, Blade Runner 2049 opened with $32.75 million, while only one other film earned more than $10 million. Even on the low end, Venom will earn more than those two films combined. On the high end, it could match last year’s top five by itself.
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October 2nd, 2018
For the fourth weekend in a row, The Nun earned first place on the international chart. This past weekend, the film earned $16.4 million on 9,490 screens in 80 markets for totals of $220.2 million internationally and $329.2 million worldwide. There were no new markets this weekend, which explains the sharp decline from last week’s haul. That said, it remained in first place in France with $2.4 million on 367 screens for a two-week total of $7.6 million. The film is now the biggest hit in the franchise, both internationally and worldwide.
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October 2nd, 2018
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Overall, the weekend matched our predictions almost perfectly. All three new releases came within a rounding error of our prediction, if not better. This includes Night School, which led the way with $27.26 million during its opening weekend, while Smallfoot wasn’t too far behind with $23.05 million. Overall, the box office was 14% higher than last weekend at $105 million. This is also 16% higher than the same weekend last year. 2018’s lead over 2017 remained nearly identical this week at 9.0% / $720 million with $8.77 billion compared to $8.04 billion.
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September 30th, 2018
The weekend box office lived up to expectations, for the most part. Night School is projected to earn $28 million over the weekend, which almost matches its $29 million production budget. It would take tiny legs to fail to cover its production budget, which is unlikely. Granted, its reviews are only 31% positive, but it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, so its target audience liked it a whole lot more than the critics did. Its international start wasn’t great at $5.5 million in 19 markets, but within expectations. It earned second place in the U.K. with $2.02 million in 452 theaters, as well as third place in Australia with $1.20 million on 198.
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September 29th, 2018
New releases did well during previews, but returned to the levels we were predicting on Friday. Night School earned $9.5 million during its opening day, which isn’t enough to get to $30 million over the weekend, but it could be enough to match our $27 million prediction, or at least come within a rounding error of that figure. Audiences liked the movie more than critics did, as it earned an A minus from CinemaScore. Meanwhile, the film reportedly cost $29 million to make, so Universal should be happy with this result.
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September 28th, 2018
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Night School earned $1.35 million during its previews last night. In order to match our $27 million prediction, the film needed about $1.2 million during its previews, so this start makes opening above $30 million a lot more likely. Granted, its reviews are not going to help, but the film still has an excellent shot at topping its production budget during its opening weekend. It would take a combination of tragic legs, zero international demand, and irresponsibly high advertising costs for this film to not break even after this start.
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September 26th, 2018
The final weekend of September is home to three wide releases. Two of these, Night School and Smallfoot could be solid hits. And since they are aimed at vastly different audiences, they shouldn’t cannibalize each other at the box office. On the other hand, Hell Fest is a low-budget horror movie that should earn more during its opening weekend than its $5.5 million production budget. Meanwhile, last week’s number one film, The House with a Clock in its Walls, should still have a solid weekend haul, giving the box office reasonable depth. This weekend last year, no film earned more than $20 million, while this year we should have two above that mark. Last year did have better depth, but I think 2018 will end its mini-losing streak in the year-over-year comparison.
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September 24th, 2018
As expected, The House with a Clock in its Walls topped the chart over the weekend. It was able to open faster than expected with $26.61 million. The other three films combined earned a fraction of that and A Simple Favor was the only other film to earn more than $10 million over the weekend. This caused the overall box office to fall 16% from last weekend to just $90 million. Worse still, this is 23% lower than the same weekend last year, which is a terrible margin. 2018 still has a massive 9.1% / $720 million lead over 2017 at $8.63 billion to $7.91 billion, so there’s no need to panic just yet.
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September 23rd, 2018
The House with a Clock in its Walls was the only new release to top expectations this weekend, and it is doing so with ease. The film will pull in a projected $26.85 million over the weekend, which is close to Goosebumps’s $28.87 million debut and is much better than predicted. Its reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore suggest merely average legs, but this is still a great start for a film that cost $42 million to make. It is way too early to make a call on its international numbers, so I’m a little wary of calling this a financial hit just yet. It did open in first place in the Philippines with 602,000 in 195 theaters, but it only managed third place in Germany with $789,000 in 465.
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September 22nd, 2018
The House with a Clock in its Walls is the only new release that opened well on Friday, with $7.82 million during its opening day. Its reviews are in the overall positive level and it earned a B plus from CinemaScore. This is nearly identical to Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children and weaker than Goosebumps’ result. If this film has the same legs as Miss Peregrine, then it will earn $25 million during its opening weekend. That would be an amazing start for a film that cost $42 million to make and significantly better than we predicted.
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September 21st, 2018
The House with a Clock in its Walls opened with $840,000 in previews on Thursday, which sounds terrible for a wide release, but it is actually quite good, all things considered. It is a family film that had previews on a school night, so it is no surprise it couldn’t crack $1 million. By comparison, Goosebumps opened with $600,000, before earning $23.62 million during its opening weekend and if this film has similar legs, it will open with more than $30 million. On the other hand, Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children opened with $1.2 million before earning $28.87 million, which would give this film barely more than $20 million. House’s reviews are closer to Miss Peregrine’s reviews than Goosebumps’ reviews, so its legs will likely be similar. That said, I’m happy with our $20 million prediction for now, but I could have to adjust it tomorrow when Friday’s numbers show up.
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September 20th, 2018
It’s a busier week than expected, as there are four films opening wide or semi-wide. The House with a Clock in its Walls is the only one with a shot at first place. In fact, it might be the only new release in the top five. Fahrenheit 11/9 could earn as much as $10 million, but it could also fail to reach the top five with $5 million. Life Itself is aiming even lower, but there’s an outside chance all things line up correctly and it earns a spot in the top five. On the other hand, Assassination Nation is opening semi-wide and it could miss the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Kingsman: The Golden Circle opened with nearly $40 million and two other films earned more than $20 million. This weekend, there might not be a single film with $20 million at the box office.
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September 1st, 2018
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Overall, August was a little better than expected. Granted, there were no monster hits, but Warner Bros. had two $100 million hits in The Meg and Crazy Rich Asians. Meanwhile, Christopher Robin will come close enough to that milestone to be a hit. This allowed 2018 to stretch its lead over 2017 by over $700 million. Will that lead grow in September? Nope. Not even close. There are three major problems that will hurt September’s box office. Firstly, there are a lot of films that may or may not open wide. Secondly, there are no films opening this month that have a better than 50/50 chance of hitting $100 million. Finally... It. It destroyed records last September, earning more during its opening weekend than any film opening this month will earn in total. Fortunately, 2018 has such an enormous lead that even with It, 2018 should remain ahead of 2107 by $500 million at the end of the month.
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August 9th, 2018
Fantasy adventure starring Owen Wilder Vaccaro, Jack Black, and Cate Blanchett opens September 21 ... Full Movie Details.
The tale of 10-year-old Lewis, who goes to live with his uncle in a creaky old house with a mysterious tick-tocking heart. But his new town’s sleepy façade jolts to life with a secret world of warlocks and witches when Lewis accidentally awakens the dead.
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