Weekend Estimates: Downton goes Downtown with $31 million
September 22, 2019
Downton Abbey is not only going to earn first place on the weekend box office chart, but it is going to set the record for Focus Features with an opening weekend of $31.0 million. This is substantially more than predicted and substantially more than Focus Features’ previous best opening weekend of $22.69 million earned by Insidious Chapter 3. Additionally, thanks to its reviews, its A-rating from CinemaScore, and its more mature target demographic, it has a real chance at $100 million domestically. Or it could have a serious Fanboy Effect, because it is a TV adaptation. We will know more next weekend.
Ad Astra is earning second place with $19.21 million during its opening weekend. This is a good result for a September release, but a weak opening for a film that cost $80 million to make. Additionally, while its reviews are great, its CinemaScore was a mere B minus. The movie isn’t exactly an action-oriented crowd-pleaser, which explains the gap between the critics and the crowds in this case. Internationally, the film started with $26.0 million in 44 markets, which is about the same as it earned here, based on the relative sizes of the markets it did open in. The film did earn first place in France ($2.7 million) and Spain ($2.2 million), but had to settle for second place in the U.K. and South Korea with $2.8 million in each market.
Rambo: Last Blood is right behind with $19.02 million. Its reviews are the worst of the weekend and its CinemaScore isn’t that much better at a B plus, so it likely won’t have great legs. That said, this is a fast enough start that if it can find a receptive audience internationally, it will break even sooner rather than later.
It: Chapter Two is falling faster than expected; in fact, it is falling almost as fast as it did during its sophomore stint, which is odd. The film is down 56% to an estimated $17.25 million. The film already has $179.17 million after just three weeks of release and it will soon top $200 million, so there’s no reason to be upset about its box office numbers. Meanwhile, the film will cross $200 million internationally with an estimated $21.3 million over the weekend for a running tally of $205.9 million.
Hustlers is right behind with an estimated sophomore stint of $17.01 million pushing its running tally to $62.55 million. If this number holds, then the film will fall less than 50% during its second weekend of release, which is amazing. It also means getting to $100 million domestically seems very likely. It is still too soon to tell how it will do internationally, but I’m not optimistic, as films like this rarely translate well. That said, it could literally make negative money internationally and still break even.
As far as the limited releases are concerned, Where’s My Roy Cohn? is the only one in the $10,000 club, at least when it comes to films that released weekend estimates. The film is earning $42,000 in 4 theaters for an average of $10,591.
-(2019)-3-News.jpg)
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Ad Astra, It: Chapter Two, Hustlers, Downton Abbey, Where’s My Roy Cohn?, Rambo: Last Blood