Weekend Wrap-Up: Downton Opens High with New Focus Features Record
September 23, 2019
It was a strong weekend with almost every film in the top five topping predictions. Downton Abbey dominated the chart with $31.03 million, breaking the record for an opening weekend by a Focus Features film in the process. Both Ad Astra and Rambo: Last Blood also beat expectations, albeit by much, much smaller margins. This helped the overall box office grow 12% from last weekend to $123 million. More importantly, this is 34% higher than the same weekend last year. I was expecting substantial growth, but not this much growth. Granted, 2019 is still behind 2018, but the lead has been cut to 5.5% or $470 million at $8.14 billion to $8.61 billion. Furthermore, if we have a few more good weeks, then optimism will actually return to the box office analysis.
Downton Abbey was the biggest hit of the weekend opening with $31.03 million, making it the fastest opening film in Focus Features’ history. Additionally, the film’s reviews are among the best in the top ten and the film earned an A from CinemaScore, so its word-of-mouth should help its legs. Its target audience should also help its legs, meaning it has a real shot at $100 million domestically.
We predicted Ad Astra would open with $19 million and it earned $19.001 million. I’m happy with that result, but I don’t think Disney will be, as the film cost $80 million to make. The film might not have long legs either, despite its reviews, as it earned a B minus from CinemaScore. This isn’t the widest gap I’ve seen between critics and audiences, but it is troubling for the film’s future.
Rambo: Last Blood was next with $18.87 million during its opening weekend. Meanwhile, unlike the previous film on the list, its reviews are weaker than its CinemaScore, which was a B plus. Granted, a B plus is just mediocre for an action film, so I’m not bullish about its future.
It: Chapter Two fell faster than anticipated down 57% to $17.01 million over the weekend for a total of $178.93 million after two weeks of release. This is practically identical to its sophomore stint decline, which is odd, as most films tend to bounce back during their third weekend of release. On the other hand, the film did hold on a little better than most horror sequels do, so I think Warner Bros. is happy enough with this result that there are at least a few people trying to figure out how to turn the franchise into a trilogy.
Hustlers fell less than 50% to $16.81 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $62.35 million. The powerful reviews are clearly playing a part here, but STX Entertainment should also get some credit, as they have a knack for marketing films like this. At this point, $100 million domestically seems like a safe bet, which is more than enough to break even, potentially before any international numbers / home market numbers are taken into account. This depends on its advertising budget, which is very likely more than it was two-weeks ago.
The only film in the sophomore class not in the top five was The Goldfinch. The film plummeted 72% to just $760,000 over the weekend for a total of $4.54 million after two weeks of release. It needed to earn that much opening day to be considered a financial success. Furthermore, its theater average is just $299, so it will all but disappear from theaters this Friday.
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Filed under: Weekend Wrap-up, Ad Astra, It: Chapter Two, The Goldfinch, Hustlers, Downton Abbey, Rambo: Last Blood, It