February 28th, 2016
Voting in our annual Predict the Academy Awards contest is now closed, and we can reveal the final vote totals in each category, along with the rough probability for which film will win each award. This is a year where readers are very confident about the outcomes in many of the categories. In fact, there isn’t a single major category where less than 50% of readers picked the same winner, and there are five Oscars where 90% or more of readers agreed on the outcome, including a massive 97% of the vote for Inside Out for Best Animated Feature. That makes The Revenant a rather more uncertain bet, with 70% of readers favoring it for Best Picture. That’s actually theoretically the closest call among all the major prizes…
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February 28th, 2016
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It’s Oscar day and, if all goes to plan, I will be live-blogging the ceremony tonight. Here is the list of nominees marked according to predictions from our readers, and my personal wishes. Nominees in Bold are the ones predicted to win by our readers (we’ll have a full rundown of the predictions at noon, after the contest ends). If I am predicting a different film, those are in Italics. Meanwhile, the nominees I want to win, but don’t think will win, are Underlined. There are a few categories where the film I really think deserves the award was not even nominated, plus a few I don’t have a real opinion on.
If you haven’t done so already, it’s not too late to enter our Oscar competition, and win all Best Picture nominees on Blu-ray or DVD.
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February 27th, 2016
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest closing at noon tomorrow, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try to figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This morning, we get to the final category, Best Picture. The film I think should win, Inside Out, wasn't even nominated. Of the movies on this list, I think The Martian is the best. If you look at the odds makers, it isn’t even in the top three. I’m going to be doubly disappointed tomorrow.
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February 24th, 2016
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Like the Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor is a two-horse race, making it one of the more competitive categories of the ones we are going to look at.
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February 24th, 2016
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This year, Best Supporting Actress is a two-horse race, making it one of the more competitive categories of the ones we are going to look at.
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February 23rd, 2016
It's not a great week on the home market. The Good Dinosaur is the biggest release this week, but it is the only wide release of note. Spotlight started out in limited release, but while it expanded significantly, it never expanded truly wide. As for the Pick of the Week, I'm going with the Bogart / Bacall Blu-ray Double-Shot: The Big Sleep and Key Largo.
On a side note, it is another short list this week, because Amazon continues to be run by morons. I tried to get help from chat, but that wasn't very successful. I "talked" to four people without getting an answer. Two of which logged in and then logged out without saying a thing. One logged in, introduced themselves, then logged out when I asked a question. I tried through e-mail, but a week later and no reply. I have a phone number for press and I will try that once the Oscars are over and I'm not overwhelmed with work.
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February 20th, 2016
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. The Best Original Screenplay category isn't the most lop-sided category we will highlight, but it is also not very competitive.
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February 15th, 2016
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The BAFTA awards were handed out over the weekend. There were two main winners, The Revenant, which won most of its five awards in the high-prestige categories, and Mad Max: Fury Road, which earn all four of its awards in technical categories. It appears the Oscars will be very similar in that breakdown.
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February 2nd, 2016
This week the home market is led by a Blu-ray double-dip, Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs, while there is also an Oscar contender, Bridge of Spies, on the top. After that, the list is filled with bombs and weaker limited releases. It was an easy choice to select Snow White as Pick of the Week.
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January 31st, 2016
The Screen Actors Guild winners were handed out last night and for the most part the winners here will likely walk away with an Oscar. There is one major exception.
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January 24th, 2016
The Producers Guild of America handed out their awards last night and The Big Short came out the surprise winner for the top prize. That victory shakes up an awards season that had looked like it would be a two-horse race between Spotlight and The Revenant.
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January 20th, 2016
I know it is early in the year, but The Lady in the Van has set the record for best opening theater average for 2016 at $18,066. That record likely won't last very long, but it is good for this time of year. The only other film in the $10,000 club was the overall number one film, Ride Along 2, which earned an average of $11,100.
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January 15th, 2016
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The Oscar nominations were announced at 5:30 am Pacific time. Nothing is good that early in the morning. Worse still, this was a terrible year for snubs, especially when it comes to diversity of the nominees. The voters for the Oscars are 94% white and 77% male... but that's still more diverse than the list of nominees. The Revenant led the way with 12 nominations and it is expected to win a few of those, while it is a serious contender in most of the categories it was nominated in.
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January 14th, 2016
The Directors Guild of America spread out the nominations, which I always felt hurt the buzz. There are ten categories of awards, but only three of which pertain to theatrical releases. There are very few surprises across these three categories, so the Oscar nominations today shouldn't be full of surprises either.
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January 11th, 2016
The Golden Globes were handed out on Sunday evening. There were a few minor surprises and some infuriating results. On the other hand, no one film truly dominated, with The Revenant leading the way with just three wins. Only two other movies earned more than one win, The Martian and Steve Jobs.
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January 9th, 2016
The BAFTA nominations were announced and you can read them on their site... in alphabetical order. Alphabetical order is very useful in most circumstances, but not here. On the other hand, the nominees within each category are not presented in alphabetical order. ... Are the BAFTAs trolling us? As for the actual nominees, the big winners here are Bridge of Spies and Carol, both of which earned nine nominations. For Carol, this is just another impressive score, but this was a pleasant surprise for Bridge of Spies.
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January 6th, 2016
The Writers Guild of America nominees were announced and there are only a few surprises here. Additionally, one of these three races seems too close to call at this point.
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January 5th, 2016
The Revenant remained on top of the theater average chart dipping just 6% to an average of $111,957 in four theaters. That's amazing and it bodes very well for its chances during its wide expansion this weekend. Furthermore, there are some major Awards Season events this week that could boost ticket sales even more. Anomalisa was well back in second place, but it still had an impressive opening with an average of $33,806 over the weekend and an average of $52,658 during its five-day opening. Star Wars: The Force Awakens was next with an average of $21,829. Chimes at Midnight earned $20,480 in one theater during its re-release, while Only Yesterday earned $14,970, also in one theater. The latter film is yet another success for GKIDS; this is the only studio that routinely has success with animated films in limited release. 45 Years remained in the $10,000 club with an average of $14,588 in six theaters. It doubled its theater count, but the average only fell 33% and that's a great sign for further expansion. Mr. Six is the fourth holdover in the $10,000 club earning an average of $10,406 in 28 theaters.
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December 15th, 2015
We have a new champion on top of the per theater chart this week, as The Big Short earned one of the best limited release openings of the year. Its average of $88,191 was behind only Steve Jobs for the year and Steve Jobs opened in half as many theaters as The Big Short, 8 to 4. Carol remained strong in second place with an average of $21,105 in 16 theaters. Thankfully it is expanding, but I'm worried the studio waited too long and it won't reach its potential. Yellow Day opened with an average of $13,130 in two theaters. The Danish Girl rounded out the $10,000 club with an average of $10,964 in 24 theaters. By this time next week, it could be over $1 million in total.
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December 10th, 2015
The Golden Globes nominations were announced this morning and we are already beginning to see a trend for this year's Awards Season. For the most part, the same films are coming up over and over again. Carol led the way with five awards, while there was a three-way tie for second place with The Big Short, The Revenant and Steve Jobs each picking up four.
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December 9th, 2015
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The Screen Actors Guild nominations were announced today and there are at least a few surprises to talk about. Trumbo led the way with three nominations, but there were six films with two nods apiece. Six!
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December 8th, 2015
For the third weekend in a row, Carol earned first place on the per theater chart, this time with an average of $36,281. It is still playing in only four theaters, which is a huge mistake in my mind. It really should have expanded by now. The Danish Girl remained in second place with an average of $26,089, also in four theaters. It too should expand. The best new release was Youth, which opened with an average of $19,521, again in four theaters. Macbeth was playing in five theaters and earned an average of $13,967. Hitchcock/Truffaut opened with an average of $9,393 in three theaters over the weekend, but it was a Wednesday release. Its five-day average was $11,927.
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December 1st, 2015
Carol remained in first place on the per theater chart with an average of $49,443 in four theaters. This is 22% lower than the film's opening weekend average, which isn't bad for a limited release. The Danish Girl opened in a close second place with $46,830, also in four theaters. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 earned first place on the overall chart and third place on the per theater chart with an average of $12,456. Janis: Little Girl Blue earned an average of $10,931 in two theaters, which is great for a documentary. The second wide release in the $10,000 club was The Good Dinosaur with an average of $10,444.
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November 25th, 2015
Awards Season begins with the Independent Spirit Awards nominations. There were definitely some surprise nominees this year, but that also meant there were some unfortunate snubs as well. The overall leader was Carol, which just opened this past weekend. This is great timing and should help its box office numbers, as well as its chances throughout Awards Season. Its six nominations were one ahead of Beasts of No Nation and Spotlight. (One of Spotlight's was the Robert Altman Award, which has no nominations, just one winner.)
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November 24th, 2015
Carol had a festive opening earning just over $250,000 in four theaters for an average of $63,378. That's the third best average for an opening this year, just ahead of Ex Machina and just behind Sicario. The overall box office leader, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2, was next with an average of $24,591. Legend was next with an average of $21,709 in four theaters. That's a good start, but its reviews suggest not so good legs. Speaking of long legs, Brooklyn remained in the $10,000 for the third week in a row earning an average of $10,270 in just over 100 theaters.
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November 24th, 2015
The Curse of the High Expectations strikes again. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 became the fifth film of the year to open with more than $100 million. This should be a reason to celebrate, but it marks a very steep decline from previous films in the Hunger Games franchise. The other two wide releases, The Night Before and Secret in Their Eyes, both failed to meet expectations, leaving the overall box office softer than anticipated. Granted, it still grew 60% from last weekend to $173 million, but this is 10% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2015 is still ahead of 2014 by a comfortable margin of 3.6% or $320 million. It would take a sizable collapse for 2015 to not come out on top in terms of raw box office dollars. On the other hand, it wouldn't take too much for it to slip below ticket price inflation, which is about 2% this year.
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November 22nd, 2015
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay—Part 2 is about to record the most disappointing $100 million weekend ever, based on Sunday’s estimate from Lionsgate. Why disappointing? Because its $101.025 million projected opening follows the $158 million earned by Catching Fire on this weekend in 2013 (then the sixth-biggest weekend ever), and the $122 million debut of Mockingjay—Part 1 this weekend last year. That marks a decline of 20% or so from one installment of the franchise to the next, which is the worst performance of any franchise to have recorded a $100 million start. Global numbers tell a similar story: $247 million this weekend against Part 1’s $275 million. However, once we get that troubling statistic out the way, this is also a reason for celebration: $100 million domestically and $250 million globally in one weekend is still a huge amount of money, and caps a spectacularly successful franchise for Lionsgate.
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November 17th, 2015
There was only one new release in the $10,000 club and it had to settle for third place on the per theater chart. This left Spotlight in first place with an average of $22,561 in 60 theaters. This is a great result for a film expanding from five to 60 theaters. Brooklyn also expanded, going from five theaters to 23 theaters, while its per theater average remained strong with an average of $20,868. James White was the only new release in the $10,000 club debuting with $12,007 in its lone theater.
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November 15th, 2015
Sony are predicting a decline of just 50% for Spectre in its second weekend in theaters, putting James Bond’s latest incarnation on track for a final domestic box office in the neighborhood of $200 million. While well short of Skyfall’s $304 million, it welcome news for a film that’s probably right on the bubble as far as profitability is concerned.
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November 14th, 2015
Three new wide releases are all, as expected, struggling to make much headway against Spectre and The Peanuts Movie this weekend, with the two returning films sitting comfortably at the top of the chart. Spectre picked up an estimated $10.2 million on Friday for a total to date of $105.5 million, while Peanuts earned another $5.6 million, for $63.9 million so far.
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November 10th, 2015
It was a busy week on the per theater chart with seven films in the $10,000 club. Spotlight led the way with an average of $59,002 in five theaters. This is the fourth best opening weekend average of 2015, just ahead of While We're Young and just behind Ex Machina. Brooklyn was next with an average of $37,456, also in five theaters. It opened on Wednesday, so its weekend average was a little lower than it otherwise would have been. The overall number one film, Spectre, was third with an average of $17,919. In Jackson Heights was on the opposite end of the scale playing in just one theater. It did well with an opening of $15,150. Trumbo was very close behind with an average of $14,835 in five theaters. Its reviews suggest it won't expand significantly, but this is a great start. The second wide release of the week was The Peanuts Movie, which opened with an average of $11,345. The final film in the $10,000 club was Peggy Guggenheim - Art Addict, which earned an average of $11,129 in two theaters.
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November 8th, 2015
After a great night on Thursday and a very good day on Friday, Spectre has faded a bit over the weekend. After posting $28 million on Friday, the film was down about 4% on Saturday to $26.5 million, and Sony is projecting a weekend total of $73 million. Even that number may be a shade high, and it falls well behind the $80 million that looked on the cards earlier in the weekend, and even further behind Skyfall’s franchise-record $88.4 million opening. While by any measure it’s a great debut, the final number does prompt the question: what went wrong over the weekend?
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November 6th, 2015
It is a short list this week, due to technical considerations. However, there are seven films here that are earning good reviews and some measure of pre-release buzz. The film with the best shot at mainstream success is Brooklyn (Reviews). It isn't the only film that could succeed, as Spotlight, Trumbo, and the rest could also find receptive audiences during Awards Season.
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