March 7th, 2016
Spectre is the latest Bond film. It is a follow-up to Skyfall, which not only earned stellar reviews, but was also the biggest box office hit in the franchise earning more than $1 billion worldwide. Spectre wasn't as strong at the box office or with critics, but I'm a long time fan of the franchise, so I will still like it, right?
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February 28th, 2016
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It’s Oscar day and, if all goes to plan, I will be live-blogging the ceremony tonight. Here is the list of nominees marked according to predictions from our readers, and my personal wishes. Nominees in Bold are the ones predicted to win by our readers (we’ll have a full rundown of the predictions at noon, after the contest ends). If I am predicting a different film, those are in Italics. Meanwhile, the nominees I want to win, but don’t think will win, are Underlined. There are a few categories where the film I really think deserves the award was not even nominated, plus a few I don’t have a real opinion on.
If you haven’t done so already, it’s not too late to enter our Oscar competition, and win all Best Picture nominees on Blu-ray or DVD.
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February 15th, 2016
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There's no major release this week. I was tempted to give Spectre the Pick of the Week honor, but the screener arrived too late to get the review done over the weekend. None of the big releases are worth the Pick of the Week title. There are a number of smaller releases that are worth considering for Pick of the Week, including The Kid, which tops the list.
On a side note, this week's list is a little shorter than I would have liked, because the people who run Amazon are morons. They've changed the New Releases page, again, making it even harder to find a list of new releases for the week. Additionally, there are some films, like Black Mass, that weren't on the list of releases for this week before the changes were made. I understand why physical stores reorganize every once and a while, because if people have to walk to the store to find something, they are more likely to buy something else on a whim. However, these people physically walked to the store, so if they don't buy what they came for, it will be a wasted effort. On the other hand, people go to Amazon by clicking a button. Making it harder to find new releases for that week won't make it more likely they will buy something else. It means they are more likely to not buy anything at all.
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February 8th, 2016
It's a strange week on the home market, as we have a monster release coming out, Spectre. There are also four or so releases that are contenders for Pick of the Week. But after that, there's a huge drop in quality and we quickly reach releases that are not even worthy of being fillers. Of the contenders, Grandma is the Pick of the Week and it is certainly worth picking up on Blu-ray.
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January 20th, 2016
It was a slow week with only a handful of significant releases. However, that was good news for me, because it allowed me review the screener that arrived late. That screener was for The Martian, which was as good as I had hoped it was and it is the Pick of the Week. It is not the only new release that was in contention for that title. Both Adventure Time - Stakes! (DVD) and All Things Must Pass (DVD or Blu-ray) were in the running.
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January 15th, 2016
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The Oscar nominations were announced at 5:30 am Pacific time. Nothing is good that early in the morning. Worse still, this was a terrible year for snubs, especially when it comes to diversity of the nominees. The voters for the Oscars are 94% white and 77% male... but that's still more diverse than the list of nominees. The Revenant led the way with 12 nominations and it is expected to win a few of those, while it is a serious contender in most of the categories it was nominated in.
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January 11th, 2016
The Golden Globes were handed out on Sunday evening. There were a few minor surprises and some infuriating results. On the other hand, no one film truly dominated, with The Revenant leading the way with just three wins. Only two other movies earned more than one win, The Martian and Steve Jobs.
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December 17th, 2015
We have some early international numbers for Star Wars: The Force Awakens and it is good news all around. The film managed $14.1 million in the 12 markets where it opened on Wednesday, including $5.2 million in France. This is the biggest non-holiday opening day in that market and the second-biggest opening day of all time, behind Spectre. It opened with $2 million in Italy, which is the biggest opening day in December there, doubling the previeous record set by The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies.
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December 16th, 2015
Surprise You’ll Never Think Of: Journey To The West took $17.54 million over four days, giving it first place in both China and internationally. Journey To The West is one of the most popular Chinese stories ever written and is like the Hamlet of Chinese literature. Hamlet has over 50 feature-length film adaptations and Journey To The West is quickly catching up to that number.
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December 10th, 2015
The Golden Globes nominations were announced this morning and we are already beginning to see a trend for this year's Awards Season. For the most part, the same films are coming up over and over again. Carol led the way with five awards, while there was a three-way tie for second place with The Big Short, The Revenant and Steve Jobs each picking up four.
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December 9th, 2015
It was a milestone weekend for The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2, as it crossed the $500 million mark worldwide. Over the weekend, the film pulled in $32.4 million in 93 markets for totals of $296.8 million internationally and $524.2 million worldwide. Its biggest market of the weekend was Germany, where it pulled in $4.77 million on 1,127 screens for a three-week total of $30.53 million. On the other hand, its biggest market overall has been the U.K., where it has made $35.21 million, including $3.38 million in 539 theaters this past weekend. There are rumors that Lionsgate are working on prequels for this franchise. Not sure that's a good idea.
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December 3rd, 2015
The weekend after Thanksgiving is historically a really bad time of the year at the box office. This year there is only one wide release risking it, Krampus. However, this is one more wide release than we had this week last year. There is also a semi-wide release coming out, The Letter, but its reviews are terrible and its box office chances might be even worse. This should give The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 an easy path to first place. In fact, the top three will likely remain the same as last weekend. Fortunately, the holdovers this year are stronger than the holdovers last year, so 2015 should win in the year-over-year comparison.
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December 2nd, 2015
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 remained in first place with $62.0 million in 93 markets for totals of $242.4 million internationally and $440.9 million worldwide. The film's only major market opening came from Spain where it had to settle for second place with a total opening of $4.52 million on 449 screens. Its biggest market overall is the U.K. where it pulled in $6.78 million in 579 theaters over the weekend for a total of $28.88 million after two weeks of release. At this pace, the film will finish with between $600 million and $700 million, which is amazing, but below average for the Hunger Games franchise.
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November 25th, 2015
It appears The Good Dinosaur will win the box office race this weekend with The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 being pushed into second place. Creed should have the best opening weekend of the franchise. Meanwhile, Victor Frankenstein is just hoping for a spot in the top five. I don't think it will get there. Both new releases from last year failed to meet expectations, so that gives 2015 a real shot at coming out on top of the year-over-year comparison.
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November 25th, 2015
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 easily won the box office race on the international chart with $146.0 million in 87 markets for a worldwide opening of $248.7 million. Its biggest market was China, but it only managed third place there with $16.11 million. The film cracked $10 million in the U.K. with $14.10 million in 941 theaters and in Germany with $13.42 million on 1,002. The film's openings were lower than Part 1 managed in most markets (Germany and Latin American seem to be the biggest exceptions) but it is still doing well enough that it will break even before it reaches the home market.
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November 24th, 2015
The Curse of the High Expectations strikes again. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 became the fifth film of the year to open with more than $100 million. This should be a reason to celebrate, but it marks a very steep decline from previous films in the Hunger Games franchise. The other two wide releases, The Night Before and Secret in Their Eyes, both failed to meet expectations, leaving the overall box office softer than anticipated. Granted, it still grew 60% from last weekend to $173 million, but this is 10% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2015 is still ahead of 2014 by a comfortable margin of 3.6% or $320 million. It would take a sizable collapse for 2015 to not come out on top in terms of raw box office dollars. On the other hand, it wouldn't take too much for it to slip below ticket price inflation, which is about 2% this year.
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November 22nd, 2015
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay—Part 2 is about to record the most disappointing $100 million weekend ever, based on Sunday’s estimate from Lionsgate. Why disappointing? Because its $101.025 million projected opening follows the $158 million earned by Catching Fire on this weekend in 2013 (then the sixth-biggest weekend ever), and the $122 million debut of Mockingjay—Part 1 this weekend last year. That marks a decline of 20% or so from one installment of the franchise to the next, which is the worst performance of any franchise to have recorded a $100 million start. Global numbers tell a similar story: $247 million this weekend against Part 1’s $275 million. However, once we get that troubling statistic out the way, this is also a reason for celebration: $100 million domestically and $250 million globally in one weekend is still a huge amount of money, and caps a spectacularly successful franchise for Lionsgate.
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November 20th, 2015
It should be a very busy weekend, at least at the top, as The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 is nearly guaranteed to dominate the box office and many think it will top $100 million over the weekend. On the other hand, the other two releases are The Night Before and Secret in Their Eyes, neither of which is expected to do particularly well. That said, they would have to truly bomb to not at least make the top five, but I doubt either of them will top Spectre over the weekend. This weekend last year, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 opened with just over $120 million. That is the figure Part 2 will need to match to be considered a success. I'm feeling cautiously optimistic, but not everyone is.
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November 19th, 2015
Spectre again dominated the international box office earning $152.6 million in 92 markets for totals of $413.1 million internationally and $542.1 million worldwide. $500 million worldwide is enough to save face, but the film will need reach at least $600 million worldwide to have a shot at breaking even any time soon. It will likely need $700 million to $800 million to keep the studio happy. Fortunately, that seems very likely. The past weekend, the film opened in first place in China with $48.55 million. It also remained in top spot in the U.K. with $11.96 million in 617 theaters over the weekend for a three-week total of $118.39 million. It is now the fourth biggest hit in that market, while it has a shot at overtaking Skyfall for first place. It will need help from the holidays to get there. Will the movie still be in theaters come New Year's Day? Maybe.
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November 17th, 2015
There's not much in the way of good news to talk about, which is something that is becoming sadly common. Two of the three new releases missed expectations and expectations were low to begin with. Love the Coopers led the new releases, but it is hardly what you would call a box office hit. Even calling it a middling hit is overstating things. The 33 barely managed a spot in the top five and will quickly leave theaters. My All-American missed the Mendoza Line* by a mile and missed the top ten in the process. This meant Spectre and The Peanuts Movie remained on top of the charts, but they could only help the box office avoid becoming a disaster. As it is, the overall box office fell 33% from last weekend to just $108 million. This was 23% less than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2015's lead over 2015 took a real hit and its down to 3.9% at $9.06 billion to $8.72 billion. However, as we've seen recently, the overall box office is weaker than the these numbers look, as we've seen few major hits and many, many bombs.
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November 15th, 2015
Sony are predicting a decline of just 50% for Spectre in its second weekend in theaters, putting James Bond’s latest incarnation on track for a final domestic box office in the neighborhood of $200 million. While well short of Skyfall’s $304 million, it welcome news for a film that’s probably right on the bubble as far as profitability is concerned.
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November 14th, 2015
Three new wide releases are all, as expected, struggling to make much headway against Spectre and The Peanuts Movie this weekend, with the two returning films sitting comfortably at the top of the chart. Spectre picked up an estimated $10.2 million on Friday for a total to date of $105.5 million, while Peanuts earned another $5.6 million, for $63.9 million so far.
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November 11th, 2015
Last week the box office bounced back in an impressive fashion. However, this week it will very likely slump back down again. There are only two truly wide releases coming out this week, The 33 and Love the Coopers, neither of which are expected to be hits. In fact, there's a good chance neither of them will top $10 million over the weekend. This will leave Spectre and The Peanuts Movie on top of the charts once again, while we will have a one or two other holdovers in the top five, depending on how well the new wide releases match low expectations. This weekend last year Dumb and Dumber To opened with $36.11 million. This is more than either new release will earn this weekend, or in total. This might be more than both new releases will finish with combined. Unless the holdovers hold on really well, 2015 will lose in the year-over-year comparison, but it should be close.
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November 10th, 2015
As expected, Spectre remained in first pulling in $117.8 million in 73 markets for totals of $223.1 million internationally and $293.1 million worldwide. This is almost as much as it cost to make, so if it can double this figure, it should be able to break even eventually. The film's biggest market was the U.K. where it added $19.99 million on 696 screens over the weekend for a total of $98.82 million. It has already overtaken Jurassic World for the biggest hit of the year in the U.K. and should have no trouble rocketing into the top five on the all-time chart there. The film's biggest opening was in Germany, where it pulled in $18.06 million on 1,460 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $20.26 million. This is about 15% lower than Skyfall's opening in that market. Likewise, the film wasn't as strong during its debut in Russia earning $6.29 million on 2,112 screens, compared to $8.27 million on 1,254 screens for Skyfall. At this pace, Spectre will definitely fail to match Skyfall, but anything close to $800 million will be enough to break even, perhaps before it reaches the home market. It all depends on how much its global advertising campaign cost.
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November 10th, 2015
The winners of our Elementary, My Dear Bond contest contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Spectre opening weekend were...
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November 10th, 2015
It was a busy week on the per theater chart with seven films in the $10,000 club. Spotlight led the way with an average of $59,002 in five theaters. This is the fourth best opening weekend average of 2015, just ahead of While We're Young and just behind Ex Machina. Brooklyn was next with an average of $37,456, also in five theaters. It opened on Wednesday, so its weekend average was a little lower than it otherwise would have been. The overall number one film, Spectre, was third with an average of $17,919. In Jackson Heights was on the opposite end of the scale playing in just one theater. It did well with an opening of $15,150. Trumbo was very close behind with an average of $14,835 in five theaters. Its reviews suggest it won't expand significantly, but this is a great start. The second wide release of the week was The Peanuts Movie, which opened with an average of $11,345. The final film in the $10,000 club was Peggy Guggenheim - Art Addict, which earned an average of $11,129 in two theaters.
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November 9th, 2015
It was a good weekend at the box office, but not a great weekend. Both Spectre and The Peanuts Movie opened well enough to be considered hits, but didn't quite reach the high marks I had expected. Call it irrational exuberance. Even though Spectre didn't break the record for the Bond franchise, it still did almost as well as all of the box office did last weekend. Additionally, The Peanuts Movie opened with more than $40 million, which is a great start, while its target audience should help its legs. The overall box office was $162 million, which is 115% more than last weekend. It was also 3.0% more than the same weekend last week, so the slump we've been in is officially over. Year-to-date, 2015 is now ahead of 2014 by a 4.9% margin at $8.89 billion to $8.48 billion. A $415 million lead with less than two months to go seems really safe, especially with a few more potential monster hits on the way.
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November 8th, 2015
After a great night on Thursday and a very good day on Friday, Spectre has faded a bit over the weekend. After posting $28 million on Friday, the film was down about 4% on Saturday to $26.5 million, and Sony is projecting a weekend total of $73 million. Even that number may be a shade high, and it falls well behind the $80 million that looked on the cards earlier in the weekend, and even further behind Skyfall’s franchise-record $88.4 million opening. While by any measure it’s a great debut, the final number does prompt the question: what went wrong over the weekend?
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November 7th, 2015
While it doesn’t look as though records will be set, Spectre and Peanuts are both giving the box office a much-needed jolt this weekend. With studio estimates for Friday in, Spectre is the clear winner for the weekend, with $28.1 million for the day, including $5.25 million at preview screenings on Thursday. That compares to Skyfall’s $32.7 million Friday with $2.2 million at previews, and suggests an opening weekend around $78 million for the latest entry in the timeless James Bond franchise.
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November 6th, 2015
Bond is, as they say, back. And looking very spritely for a 52-year-old, it has to be said. The latest entry from the world’s most durable franchise launched in North American theaters at 7pm on Thursday with $5.25 million from 3,221 locations, easily a best for the franchise from preview shows, beating the $2.2 million picked up by Skyfall back in 2012. It’s a great start—among the top 50 of all time for Thursday previews—and bodes well for the weekend as a whole; but is it enough to set the film on a path for a franchise-best opening weekend?
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November 5th, 2015
I've been working at The Numbers for 13 years. The past two weekends were worst back-to-back weekends that I can recall and the numbers back that up. So thank goodness October is over and November has officially begun and with that, the Holiday Box Office season has begun. There are two potential monster hits opening wide this week: Spectre and The Peanuts Movie. Both are the latest installments of long running franchises. Spectre is the 26th Bond movie (not all of which are part of the official Bond franchise). The Peanuts Movie is based on a comic strip that started officially in the 1950s and has been turned into countless TV cartoons and a handful of TV specials over the years, but it hasn't had a theatrical release for decades. These two films should dominate the market and combined they might earn twice as much as all of the films last weekend earned. There should be huge growth compared to last year, when Big Hero 6 and Interstellar earned just over $100 million combined. We've had a really bad couple of weeks, but things should really turn around this weekend.
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November 5th, 2015
Spectre opened in first place with $80.4 million during its seven-day opening weekend. That doesn't seem like a huge amount, especially considering some of the opening weekends we've seen on the international stage this year. However, there is a mitigating factor. It was only playing in six markets. This includes the U.K., where the film broke records with $62.82 million in 651 theaters. This is equivalent to a $300 million opening week here, which would be the record for a seven-day box office here. We shouldn't get too ahead of ourselves, as Bond films have a natural affinity for that market. It does mean Spectre has a real shot at a $100 million opening weekend here.
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November 5th, 2015
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The winners of our Crisis Management contest contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Our Brand is Crisis opening weekend were...
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November 2nd, 2015
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Most people expected the box office to be really weak this past weekend, but I don't think anyone anticipated this. How bad was this past weekend? All three new releases missed the Mendoza line* and there were no new releases in the top five. The overall box office was just $75 million, which was the lowest for the year and the fourth worst weekend in the past decade. This represents a 28% drop-off from last week and a 21% drop-off from the same weekend last year. 2015's overall lead over 2014 shrunk from 5.2% to 4.7%. The overall lead fell by $40 million at $8.69 billion to $8.31 billion. This is reason to panic, or it would be if Spectre wasn't opening on Friday. The film is breaking records in the U.K. and should be an explosive hit here. Hopefully it will do well enough that we can pretend the past two weeks never happened.
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November 1st, 2015
October has come to an end and everyone should be happy about that. Except for The Martian, there were no serious hits that opened last month. There were more outright bombs than even midlevel hits. Fortunately, October of last year wasn't spectacular either, so 2015 maintains a healthy lead over 2014. Even more fortunately, November looks fantastic. There are four films that have the potential to earn $200 million or more. The biggest of these is the final Hunger Games movie, which should reach $400 million. Spectre has a real shot at $300 million and could be the biggest hit in the franchise. Meanwhile, nearly every November there's an animated kids movie that becomes a monster hit. This year, The Peanuts Movie and The Good Dinosaur are both aiming for that box office milestone. The last time we didn't have a family film that earned at least $100 million in November was 2011 and that's because there were four family films that opened in the final two weeks of the month and that much competition meant they cannibalized each other. Both of these has a shot at $200 million and if neither of them reached $200 million, I would be shocked. Meanwhile, last November was a good month at the top with three monster hits: The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1, Big Hero 6, and Interstellar. However, after those three films, there were not much positive to talk about. It really looks like 2015 will match 2014 at the top, plus it could have better depth. I might be a little too optimistic, but I think November is going to be a great month at the box office.
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October 29th, 2015
Spectre opens next week and it should dominate the box office. As such, it is the only real choice for the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Spectre.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Mr. Holmes on DVD, plus a previously reviewed DVD or Blu-ray.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Mr. Holmes on DVD, plus a previously reviewed DVD or Blu-ray.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a copy of Mr. Holmes on DVD, plus a previously reviewed DVD or Blu-ray.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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