March 22nd, 2017
-8-News.jpg)
Beauty and the Beast dominated the international chart even more than it dominated the domestic one earning $180.0 million in 44 markets. The film’s worldwide opening was the second best for March, behind only Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice; however, BvS opened truly worldwide, while Beauty and the Beast only opened in about two thirds of the international market. Unsurprisingly, the film’s biggest single market was China, where it pulled in $44.72 million over the weekend, $45.01 million including Thursday’s previews. It was also a monster hit in the U.K., where it earned $24.37 million in 567 theaters, which was the biggest March opening of all time in that market. The next biggest market was South Korea with $10.68 million on 1,625 screens over the weekend and $11.88 million in total. It also cracked $10 million in Mexico ($11.6 million); Germany ($10.7 million), and Brazil ($10.4 million). At this point, getting to $1 billion worldwide seems like a safe bet, especially with openings in France, Australia, Japan, and other markets left to go. We will of course track its progress there.
More...
March 16th, 2017
Kong: Skull Island opened in first place on the international chart with $85.1 million in 65 markets, which is more than $3 million higher than Sunday’s estimates. The film’s biggest market was the U.K., where it earned $7.58 million in 567 theaters. It also did well in Mexico ($5.58 million); in Russia ($4.87 million on 1,283 screens); and in Australia ($3.55 million on 523). Impressively, the film broke the record for biggest opening in Vietnam with $2.2 million on 377 screens.
More...
March 6th, 2017
There are not a lot of releases on this week’s list for two major reasons. Firstly, it is a very, very shallow week. Secondly... Dental Surgery. By the time you read this, I might still be at the dentist. There are only two contenders for Pick of the Week, Jackie on Blu-ray and Moana on Blu-ray Combo Pack. It wasn’t particularly close and Moana is easily the Pick of the Week.
More...
March 5th, 2017
Moana was the third animated film distributed by Disney this year. All three earned excellent reviews, but Moana was by far the weakest at the box office. Is it also the weakest in terms of quality?
More...
February 26th, 2017
-1-News.jpg)
It’s Oscar night and we were live blogging the show. Read on the the highlights of what turned out to be a crazy night.
More...
February 26th, 2017
It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. Nominees in italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between.
More...
February 21st, 2017
-1-News.jpg)
Did you know Oscars are being handed out next week? If you didn’t already know that, you would be able to figure that out, as there are five major Oscar nominees on this week’s list. Two of those, Jackie and Moana, are VOD releases, so that limits the choices for Pick of the Week. In fact, only Manchester by the Sea was a contender for Pick of the Week. Unfortunately for that film, I got to the review for Doctor Strange a week early and I’m awarding it the Pick of the Week this week. It is out on VOD right now, but I would wait a week for the Blu-ray Combo Pack.
More...
February 10th, 2017
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Feature-Length Animated Film. It’s a one-horse race.
More...
February 5th, 2017
-3-News.jpg)
Rings managed to win on Friday, but the weekend as a whole will belong to Split, which is expected to top the chart with $14.6 million, according to Universal’s Sunday morning projection. Rings will finish second with $13 million or so, and A Dog’s Purpose will win Sunday (making this a rare weekend where three different films will top the daily chart) to finish the weekend with $10.8 million, and $32.9 million to date.
More...
January 25th, 2017
xXx: Return of Xander Cage easily took first place on the international chart with $50.5 million in 53 markets. The film’s biggest market was India, where it pulled in $7.4 million. Russia was second best with $5.39 million on 1,191 screens. The film had similar debuts in France ($3.1 million); Germany ($2.8 million); Mexico ($2.62 million); and Australia ($2.24 million on 331 screens). This film is clearly doing better internationally than it is domestically, but it will need about $200 million worldwide to have any chance of breaking even any time soon.
More...
January 24th, 2017
The Oscar nominations were announced starting at 5:18 am Pacific time. Nothing is good that early in the morning. Worse still, it’s a boring year for nominations with very few surprises worth talking about, especially in the biggest categories. Leading the way was La La Land with 14 nominations, tying the record.
More...
January 19th, 2017
-2-News.jpg)
For the first time in its run, Passengers earned first place with $30.59 million on 17,000 screens in 78 markets for totals of $136.34 million internationally and $226.07 million worldwide. At this point, the studio has either earned back the $110 million production budget, or has come close. If it can find an audience on the home market, then it could break even, eventually. This weekend, the film’s biggest opening was in China where it earned first place with $17.45 million on an estimated 10,000 screens over the weekend for a total of $17.52 million including previews. China is already the film’s biggest market overtaking Russia, where it has $16.25 million after four weeks of release, including $618,000 on 528 screens this past weekend.
More...
January 12th, 2017
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story remained in first place with $56.6 million in 57 markets for totals of $437.1 million internationally and $914.5 million worldwide. It is now in fifth place on the 2016 worldwide chart. ... The entire top five worldwide is from Disney. This is unprecedented. As for this past weekend, Rogue One earned first place in China with $30.11 million over the weekend and $30.65 million including previews. This is on par with expectations, although some were worried it would struggle due to... I was going to say weather, but is smog weather? China is currently dealing with a smog crisis and has been issuing warnings to stay inside. This is the last market for the film, but it should cruise to $1 billion on holdovers. It will likely reach second place on the 2016 worldwide chart, but I think Captain America: Civil War is safe on the top of the chart.
More...
January 11th, 2017
The Producers Guild of America finally finished announcing their nominations. (They spread out their announcements for reasons I’ve never quite understood.) Most of the films on this list have already earned more than a few previous nominations. We appear to be settling into a predictable Awards Season.
More...
January 11th, 2017
The BAFTA nominations were announced and it should come as no surprise what film lead the way... La La Land with 11 nominations, Nocturnal Animals and Arrival are tied for second with nine nominations a piece.
More...
January 5th, 2017
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story added $45.8 million in 55 markets to its running tally, which now sits at $350.0 million internationally and $775.0 million worldwide. By the end of Sunday, the film was already in tenth place for the year and while it is not doing as well internationally as it is domestically, it is still on pace to hit fifth place by as early as this weekend. Its biggest market is the U.K., where it has pulled in $64.4 million, but the U.K. might not stay on top for long, because the film opens in China this weekend.
More...
January 4th, 2017
The final weekend of the year wasn’t as potent as we had predicted, but there were still a number of reasons to celebrate. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story won the weekend and is on its way to becoming the biggest hit of the year. Sing was relatively close behind and will get to $200 million this upcoming weekend. Overall, the box office rose by 2.9% from last weekend hitting $186 million. This is 15% lower than the same weekend last year, which again was actually the first weekend of 2016. We need to switch to the Strowbrinian Calendar. I’m not kidding about this. As for the year-over-year comparison, that’s a little confusing. If you just look at the calender years, then 2016 broke the record earning $11.4 billion. However, the movie year actually begins the first Monday of the year and ends the final Sunday before the first Monday of the next year. Going by this definition of the year, 2016 actually just failed to overtake 2015, because we lost a few days of The Force Awakens and only got one extra day of Rogue One.
More...
December 29th, 2016
The weekend after Christmas Day is usually a boring weekend with no wide releases to speak of. On the other hand, we do have a monster hit to keep track of, as well as some Awards Season hopefuls that are expanding significantly and could make the top ten. Of course, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story will win this weekend and it should in fact grow from last weekend, because Christmas Eve is a dead zone at the box office. Likewise, Sing should grow even better, as it is the last weekend for families to hit theaters before school starts. Some of the other films that debuted last week are not looking so good. This weekend last year was actually the first weekend of 2016, which makes it harder to compare the two weekends. Again, we need to switch to the Strowbrinian Calendar that I mentioned at the end of the December Preview. The Force Awakens earned just over $90 million and while Rogue One won’t match that, it should be closer than most were expecting.
More...
December 23rd, 2016
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story grew by 12% to $16.77 million on Thursday for a first-week total of $222.00 million. This shows that it was hit by new releases on Wednesday, at least a little bit. It is impossible to compare this day to The Force Awakens, because this day in its run was Christmas Eve. For the record though, The Force Awakens fell by 28% to $27.40 million on that day and had pulled in $390.86 million during the same time period.
More...
December 22nd, 2016
As expected, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story led the way on Wednesday. It fell 15% to $14.97 million on Wednesday for a 6-day total of $204.23 million. By comparison, The Force Awakens rose 2% to $38.02 million on Wednesday for a six-day total of $363.46 million; however, it didn’t have to deal with three wide releases. In fact, it’s only “new” competition was the semi-wide expansion of The Big Short. Comparing the two movies’ daily numbers will get less illuminating until we get past Boxing Day, because the misalignment in the holidays will be playing a major role in the day-to-day changes.
More...
December 21st, 2016
-1-News.jpg)
This week is an utter mess when it comes to new releases. There are five films opening or expanding wide this week, three of them opening on Wednesday. Assassin’s Creed, Passengers, and Sing are all trying to get a head start on the weekend, while Why Him? debuts on Friday. Finally, Fences is expected to expand wide on Sunday, Christmas Day, but we’ve seen recently that “wide expansion” isn’t a meaningful term when studios use it. None of these films are expected to top Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, or even come close. Comparing this weekend to the same weekend last year is nearly impossible, because Christmas Eve lands on Saturday this year and Christmas Eve is a dead zone at the box office, while last year it landed on the Thursday, which is the best day of the week for optimal box office numbers. On the other hand, Monday is Boxing Day, which is a holiday for some. It doesn’t balance out, but fortunately 2016 still has a substantial lead over 2015, so even a really bad weekend won’t put 2016 behind.
More...
December 20th, 2016
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story started its international run where everyone expected it to start, in first place. It earned $135.5 million in 54 markets during its opening weekend, which is a mixed result. Hear me out, the film did manage the best opening of 2016 in a dozen markets, including a quartet of major markets: France ($10.0 million); Germany ($12.5 million); Spain ($4.5 million); and the U.K. ($21.59 million). However, it also missed expectations in the same number of major markets: Brazil ($5.3 million); Italy ($3.22 million); Mexico ($5.1 million); and Russia ($5.76 million). Other major market openings for the film include Australia ($10.77 million) and Japan ($7.9 million). So “mixed” in this case means “one of the biggest releases of the year, but not a The Force Awakens-level phenomenon". In a more direct comparison, the film earned just over half of what The Force Awakens opened with in these markets. If the film has the same legs, then it will finish with close to $600 million internationally and over $1 billion worldwide.
More...
December 19th, 2016
As expected, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story dominated the weekend box office chart with $155.08 million. This is well over twice as much as every other release combined. It is nearly twice as much as last weekend’s total box office. This helped the box office grow by 154%, reaching $211 million. Sadly, this was over $100 million or 32% lower than the same weekend last year when The Force Awakens dominated the chart. The year-over-year decline can be best summed up as within expectations. 2016 is still ahead of 2015 by a massive amount at $10.47 billion to $9.96 billion, but that will change as we see more numbers for Rogue One come in. On a more big picture look, Disney became the first studio ever to hit $7 billion worldwide in one year. They now have the record for biggest yearly domestic box office and biggest yearly worldwide box office, while it is just $160 million away from the international record as well.
More...
December 15th, 2016
It is a deceptively busy weekend, as there are two wide releases, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and Collateral Beauty, and two films that are “expanding wide”, Manchester by the Sea and La La Land. However, while that looks like a lot, in reality Rogue One: A Star Wars Story is the only film most people are talking about. In fact, it is going to dominate the box office to such a degree that its only real competition is The Force Awakens, which opened this weekend last year. Unfortunately for Rogue One, there’s almost no chance it will match The Force Awakens. In fact, there’s almost no chance the entire box office will match the $247.97 million The Force Awakens opened with. 2016 is going to get crushed in the year-over-year comparison. That said, 2016 has a nearly $460 million lead over 2015, so has long as Rogue One tops $100 million over the weekend, it should be enough to keep 2016 ahead in terms of raw box office numbers.
More...
December 14th, 2016
For the fourth and final time, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them earned first place on the international chart, this time earning $33.1 million in 67 markets. It now has totals of $480.7 million internationally and $679.6 million worldwide. This will be the last weekend the film will spend in first place, but it should last long enough to overtake Suicide Squad on the 2016 Worldwide chart.
More...
December 13th, 2016
As predicted, Moana was able to grab first place on the weekend box office chart. On the downside, it slipped a little faster than expected. Additionally, Office Christmas Party missed expectations and this led to the overall box office falling 13% from last weekend to $83 million. That said, this is still 7.0% higher than the same weekend last year and that’s more important. Year-to-date, 2016 maintained its $460 million / 4.7% lead over 2015 at $10.23 billion to $9.77 billion. This lead will take a serious hit this coming weekend when Rogue One goes against The Force Awakens. That said, unless Rogue One opens with less than $100 million during its weekend, 2016 should still come out ahead at the end of the year.
More...
December 12th, 2016
The Golden Globes nominations were announced and we are starting to see a few names pop up over and over again. La La Land led the way with seven nominations, but Moonlight was right behind with six and Manchester by the Sea earned five. You will be hearing those three names over and over and over again this Awards Season.
More...
December 11th, 2016
Moana will get to enjoy one last weekend at the top of the box office chart, in spite of a good debut for Office Christmas Party. Disney’s animated adventure will post about $18.8 million in its third weekend, for $145 million to date. It’s beginning to lag behind the performance of Frozen, which made $22.6 million in its third weekend in wide release, and had amassed $164.8 million. That still puts Moana well on course for $300 million domestically, although $350 million is looking like a stretch. Internationally, Moana will earn around $23.5 million this weekend, taking its total overseas to $93.8 million, and its global haul to $238.8 million.
More...
December 10th, 2016
As expected, Office Christmas Party earned first place on Friday with $6.6 million. Its reviews have settled at 44% positive, which is lower than you would like, but fine for this type of release. Likewise, it earned a B from CinemaScore. Neither figure will help its legs, but neither will really hurt them either. By comparison, The Night Before earned $3.56 million during its opening day on its way to a $9.88 million opening weekend. If Office Christmas Party has the same internal multiplier, then it will earn $18.3 million this weekend. However, The Night Before earned 66% positive reviews and an A- from CinemaScore. Office Christmas Party’s weaker performances with critics and audiences will likely result in a lower legs and an opening weekend of just over $17 million.
More...
December 8th, 2016
There is only one wide release this week, Office Christmas Party. There are also two films expanding semi-wide, Miss Sloane and Nocturnal Animals. I doubt both of them will make the top ten, but I would be equally surprised if neither did. At the beginning of the month, I assumed Office Christmas Party would win this weekend, but it is looking like Moana has a shot at the threepeat. It could be a really close race with the two films changing positions on the daily chart. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, In the Heart of the Sea bombed earning just $11.05 million on a $100 million budget. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 earned first place with $11.41 million. Both Office Christmas Party and Moana will top that with ease. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them might also beat that. On the other hand, last year there were four films that earned more than $10 million, while this year there will be no more than 3. I still think 2016 will win, but it could be close.
More...
December 8th, 2016
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them remained locked in first place with $60.4 million in 67 markets for totals of $424.4 million internationally and $607.5 million worldwide. It reached both $400 million internationally and $600 million worldwide, which is twice the reason to celebration. On the down side, the film has run out of major markets to open in, so it will quickly drop down the chart from now on. On the positive side, the film is already in the top ten on the 2016 Worldwide chart and will climb a little bit more before it is done.
More...
December 6th, 2016
As expected, Moana dominated the weekend box office chart with a $10 million lead over its nearest competitor earning $28.27 million. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them also did well with $18.12 million. Unfortunately, those were the only two films to earn more than $10 million over the weekend and this left the overall box office down a massive 48% from last weekend to just $95 million. Worse still, this is 2.8% lower than the same weekend last year. I’m actually surprised it’s that close, because there were four films that earned more than $10 million last year, including the biggest new release, Krampus. 2016 was able to crack $10 billion before the weekend and has a very substantial lead at $10.12 billion to $9.66 billion for 2015.
More...
December 4th, 2016
The top of the box office chart remains a tale of two movies this weekend, with Moana maintaining an impressive lead over Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, but both movies doing very nicely heading into the Christmas season. Moana tops the chart again this weekend with $28.4 million, for a total of $119.9 million at the end of the weekend. By way of comparison, Frozen had earned $134.3 million at this point in its run, but fell a slightly larger 53% from Thanksgiving, compared to Moana’s 50% decline. The next few weeks should be very lucrative for the animated adventure, which is likely to sail past $300 million at the domestic box office.
More...
December 1st, 2016
December usually starts on a really soft note, because the weekend after Thanksgiving is usually a terrible weekend. This time around, the wide release of the week is Incarnate, which is opening in 1,737 theaters and is expected to struggle to reach the top ten. That leaves Moana with an easy route to first place. This weekend last year, Krampus opened in second place with $16.29 million. Incarnate will only earn a fraction of that. On the other hand, the number one film was The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2, which earned $18.86 million during the weekend and Moana should easily beat that. I don’t think 2016 will come out ahead, but it also shouldn’t be a disaster either.
More...
November 30th, 2016
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them remained in first place with $132.0 million in 67 markets for totals of $317.5 million internationally and $473.5 million worldwide. Its biggest debut came from China where it opened with $41.70 million, which is a little behind Doctor Strange’s opening earlier this month. On the other hand, the film is already $10 million ahead of what will be Doctor Strange’s lifetime total in the U.K. with $11.07 million in 666 theaters over the weekend for a two-week total of $37.52 million.
More...
November 29th, 2016
The winners of our Say Thanks contest contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Moana opening weekend were...
More...
November 29th, 2016
-1-News.jpg)
Lion led the way on the theater average chart this week with an average of $30,840 in four theaters. Its reviews are great and it could become a sleeper hit throughout the Christmas holidays. Up next was Manchester by the Sea with an average of $25,541 in 48 theaters. It still has plenty of room to expand and its Awards Season buzz is growing. Miss Sloane opened with an average of $19,932 in three theaters. This is good, but not good enough to think it will expand truly wide. The overall number one film, Moana, was next with an average of $14,615. The final film in the $10,000 club was Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them with an average of $10,880.
More...
November 29th, 2016
As expected, Moana earned first place over the Thanksgiving weekend and became the biggest true opener in the holiday’s history. (Technically Frozen opened in limited release the week before and as we learned from Futurama, technically correct is the best kind of correct.) The film was a little more front-loaded than expected and nearly matched our predictions. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them held on better than predicted and that one-two punch helped the overall box office grow 17% from last weekend to $184 million, over the three-day portion of the weekend. This is nearly identical to the same weekend last year; in fact, it was up by less than 1%. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $9.99 billion. 2016 will soon become the eighth year in a row to reach the $10 billion milestone. This is 5.0% / $470 million above last year’s pace. I’ve been saying for a while that we needed to enter December with a $300 million advantage over 2015 in order to come out ahead at the end of the year, so this is great news.
More...
November 27th, 2016
Disney’s domination of Thanksgiving weekend will continue in 2016, with Moana expected to post $55.5 million for the three-day weekend and $81.1 million in total, making it either the second-best or best Thanksgiving opener of all time, depending on what you consider an “opener.” Disney is claiming second place for Moana behind Frozen, which had a $67.4 million 3-day weekend, and $93.6 million 5-day weekend back in 2013. That film had already opened in a single theater the weekend before, so if we want to split hairs, it technically wasn’t opening that weekend. Either way you look at it, it’s a great start for Moana, and another handsome win for Disney. The studio can now claim the top six 5-day Thanksgiving debuts and and the top eight 3-day Thanksgiving openings of all time.
More...
November 24th, 2016
The winners of our Fantastic Prizes contest contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them opening weekend were...
More...
November 23rd, 2016
Thanksgiving weekend is one of the most lucrative weekends of the year and this time around we could have a relatively close battle between a new release, Moana, and last week’s number one film, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them. At least that’s what analysts thought, before we saw the preview numbers. None of the rest of the new wide releases are expected to do much. Allied could become a midlevel hit, but I would be surprised if its budget was only midlevel. Bad Santa 2 is on its way to becoming another comedy sequel that bombs. If Rules Don’t Apply’s previews are any indication, it will become one of the worst box office performers of the year. This weekend last year, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 beat The Good Dinosaur rather easily. However, Fantastic Beasts started slower than Moana, so I think we will have a new winner this week.
More...
November 22nd, 2016
As expected, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them dominated the box office earning nearly as much as the rest of the films combined. However, it was unexpectedly weak earning just $74.40 million. In fact, every film we talked about on Thursday’s predictions underperformed and the overall box office was down to $158 million. Granted, “down” in this case is only off by 0.1%, but considering we were expecting significant growth, even a little drop is distressing. Worse still, the box office is off by 8.9% from this weekend last year. Again, we were expecting growth in the year-over-year comparison, so a drop this big really hurts. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $9.49 billion, which is 5.9% or $540 million better than last year’s pace. That said, I wouldn’t panic, as Moana should help the box office bounce back this weekend.
More...
November 17th, 2016
There are four films opening next week, but only one of them, Moana, is going to be a major factor at the box office. Allied looks like it will be a midlevel hit, but it likely cost a serious amount of money to make, so a midlevel hit won’t be enough. Finally, there are limited releases coming out that will top Bad Santa 2 or Rules Don’t Apply. Because the new releases are so lop-sided, Moana is the only serious choice for the target film in this week’s Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Moana.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting or either a full-season TV on DVD release, two movies, or three single-discs kids movies, winners’ choice, from our collection or previously reviewed titles.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Remember, while Moana opens on Wednesday, we only care about the Friday through Sunday three-day weekend.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
More...
November 1st, 2016
-2-News.jpg)
October turned out to be a mixed month. On the one hand, not one movie earned $100 million, or even came close. However, it was also a more steady month than last October and the last two weeks really helped 2016 in the year-over-year comparisons. In November, we have five films with at least a shot at $100 million, three of which should have no trouble getting to at least $200 million. A little while ago, I thought Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them would be the biggest hit of the month, but the buzz took a hit recently. More on that below. Meanwhile, Doctor Strange’s reviews are currently 90% positive and that should help it out at the box office. The third very likely $200 million hit is Moana. There is certainly precedent for an animated movie to be a monster hit at this time of year, but there is also a lot of competition. Last November was similar in strength, with five films that earned more than $100 million and two films that earned more than $200 million. None earned more than $300 million, so that’s the goal for this November. If we can get one $300 million and / or three $200 million movies over the month, then it will be seen as a victory.
More...
September 15th, 2016
Disney animated adventure opens November 23 ... Full Movie Details.
More...
