Weekend Predictions: Will Incarnate have a Substantial Opening?
December 1, 2016
December usually starts on a really soft note, because the weekend after Thanksgiving is usually a terrible weekend. This time around, the wide release of the week is Incarnate, which is opening in 1,737 theaters and is expected to struggle to reach the top ten. That leaves Moana with an easy route to first place. This weekend last year, Krampus opened in second place with $16.29 million. Incarnate will only earn a fraction of that. On the other hand, the number one film was The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2, which earned $18.86 million during the weekend and Moana should easily beat that. I don’t think 2016 will come out ahead, but it also shouldn’t be a disaster either.
Moana is racing towards $100 million domestically. The only question is what day will it get there. Amazing reviews and the lack of any significant competition should help; however, this is still a post-holiday weekend. I think it will hold on better than The Good Dinosaur did, but not as well as Frozen. A 57% drop-off would still give the film $24 million over the weekend and $116 million after two weeks of release. It will still be in the top ten during the Christmas / New Year week and that should be enough to push it over $200 million.
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them should fall a similar amount to $19 million over the weekend and $183 million after three weeks of release. This will leave it one week away from the $200 million mark.
Allied will hold on better than most films in the top ten thanks to its more mature target demographic, while its reviews will neither hurt or help. Look for just over $7 million this weekend for a two-week total of $29 million.
Arrival will be in a tight race for fourth place, and should earn just over $6 million for a four-week total of $72 million. It is struggling internationally, so it might have to wait a while to break even.
Doctor Strange has already reached $200 million domestically and $600 million worldwide, so anything it makes now is pure profit. I think it will make just over $6 million over the weekend to give it fifth place.
Incarnate is the only new release with a legitimate shot at opening in the top ten since it only needs about $2.5 million to earn tenth place. It might not make it there. The film is only playing in 1,737 theaters and it currently has only one review on Rotten Tomatoes and it is negative. I think this film will have a run similar to Shut In, earning barely more than $3 million over the weekend, but under $2 million is also possible. Either way, it will be nearly entirely out of theaters by Christmas.
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Moana, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Doctor Strange, Shut In, Arrival, Incarnate, Allied