February 14th, 2015
The Writers Guild of America winners were just announced and there wasn't a lot of surprises to talk about, but enough interesting things happened that it wasn't boring.
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February 13th, 2015
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the two leading actor categories, starting with Best Lead Actress. One actress is so far ahead of the rest of the field that there isn't even a consensus on who the second place actress should be.
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February 9th, 2015
New releases scored four of the top five spots on the DVD sales chart this week. This includes Lucy, which opened with 367,000 units / $5.39 million.
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February 9th, 2015
New releases dominated the Blu-ray Sales Chart earning the top three spots. This includes Lucy, which opened in first place with 425,000 units / $8.71 million for an opening week Blu-ray share of 54%. Action films tend to do really well on Blu-ray, so this result isn't too much of a surprise.
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February 2nd, 2015
A couple of new releases, Gone Girl and A Walk Among the Tombstones, were able to take the top two spots on the Blu-ray sales chart and that helped the overall sales of Blu-ray grow 22% to 852,000 units and 21% to $17.92 million compared to last week. Unfortunately, this was 19% fewer units and 25% less revenue from the same week last year. This is less of an issue with the Blu-ray market and more of an issue with the weakness in the theatrical numbers. In fact, the overall Blu-ray share rose to 37% in terms of units and 43% in terms of revenue.
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February 2nd, 2015
There were not a lot of new releases to reach the top twenty on the Blu-ray sales chart this week, but we did have a new film on top. Gone Girl earned first place with 342,000 / $6.64 million for an opening week Blu-ray share of 43%. This isn't bad, for a thriller.
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February 2nd, 2015
Gone Girl led the new releases on the DVD sales chart with sales of 460,000 units / $6.97 million during its opening week of release. This is a good start for the film and probably enough to get to 1 million units before it is done. Eventually.
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January 17th, 2015
The Oscar nominations were announced early in the morning, when all sensible people were asleep. There were some surprises, as well as some results that would have been surprises had it not been for the previous Awards Season nominations. Seventeen films earned two or more nods, led by Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel, both of which picked up nine nominations, while The Imitation Game was right behind with eight.
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January 13th, 2015
This week on the home market is about as busy as last week was, but there are far fewer contenders for Pick of the Week, as Gone Girl just crushes the competition and the Blu-ray is the Pick of the Week. The next best picks are Empire: Season Five and Love is Strange on Blu-ray.
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January 11th, 2015
The BAFTA nominations were announced yesterday and unlike most other Awards Season voters, the BAFTA voters gave us some real surprises. For instance, Birdman didn't lead the way. In fact, it was a comedy, The Grand Budapest Hotel, that earned the most nominations at 11. Granted, Birdman and The Theory of Everything were tied for second place with ten each, but it is still strange to see a comedy leading the way.
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January 10th, 2015
The Writers Guild of America nominations were latest to be announced, but were there any real surprises? Yes. Birdman didn't get a nomination, but Guardians of the Galaxy did. More on that later. Besides those two films, there are not a lot of surprises here and the usual contenders are present, including Boyhood and The Imitation Game, but there are also some other notable films missing.
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January 10th, 2015
The Producers Guild of America nominations were announced and there's not a lot of surprises among the three categories. Birdman, Boyhood, The Imitation Game, and others continue to get accolades, but there are also some films that are being passed over too often.
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December 17th, 2014
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies started its international run earning first place with $122.2 million on 15,395 screens in 37 markets. Not only did it earn the best opening of The Hobbit Trilogy, but it was often times the biggest opening in Peter Jackson's career, or even occasionally in Warner Bros' history. Its biggest opening came in Germany where it pulled in $20.5 million on 1,442 screens. Next up was the U.K. and France, which had nearly identical openings of $15.2 million on 1,489 screens and $15.1 million on 914 screens respectively. It earned $13.56 million on 2,390 screens in Russia. Brazil and Mexico were neck-and-neck with $6.8 million on 1,037 screens and $6.3 million on 2,775 screens respectively. It earned $2.4 million on 640 screens in Japan, which seems low compared to the other markets, but it is nearly double the debut The Desolation of Smaug earned.
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December 11th, 2014
The Golden Globes nominations were announced this morning, at three in the morning, because the people at Golden Globes are under the delusion that news announced at 3:00 a.m. is somehow more important if it is announced before anyone is awake. As for the actual nominations, like with the Independent Spirit Awards and the SAG nominations, Birdman led the way. It earned seven nominations, while Boyhood and The Imitation Game tied for second with five apiece. Starting to notice a pattern here? This could be a really dull Awards Season with very few surprises. On the other hand, predictable means less work for me. Plus, predictable probably means the Awards Season voters are making the right choices, as surprises usually mean someone made the wrong choice.
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December 10th, 2014
The Screen Actors Guild nominations were announced Wednesday morning. Are there surprises worth mentioning? Is the Oscar picture beginning to take shape? Like with the Independent Spirit Awards, Birdman led the way this time earning four nominations from six categories, while Boyhood, The Imitation Game, and The Theory of Everything had three nods each.
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December 7th, 2014
With no new wide releases, the weekend after Thanksgiving will see a comfortable victory at the box office for The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1. Now playing in its third weekend, the film will gross around $21.6 million, taking it to a total of $257.7m, virtually equal with The Lego Movie in third place for the year. Weekend performances for returning movies were down across the board coming off the holiday, with, in the top 10, only Gone Girl and Birdman down less than 40%.
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November 27th, 2014
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 opened in first place on the international chart with $154.3 million in 85 markets for a worldwide opening of $276.2 million. Its international opening was about 4% higher than the previously entry in the franchise. The film managed $19.8 million in the U.K. and $13.8 million in Germany. This was 5% and 9% higher than the previous film's debut in those two markets. Mockingjay, Part 1 opened 19% higher in Russia with $11.9 million. The film also topped $10 million in Mexico ($12 million) and Australia ($10.3 million).
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November 24th, 2014
As expected, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 earned first place with ease pulling in more than the rest of the box office combined. On the downside, it was well below the optimistic expectations at just $121.90 million. ... It seems strange that an opening of $121.90 million is considered disappointing. Worse still, none of the other films in the top five topped predictions, so they couldn't help mitigate Mockingjay, Part 1's softer than anticipated opening. The overall box office still rose 38% from last weekend to $194 million, but this was 14% lower than the same weekend last year. There's really no way to spin that in a positive manner. Year-to-date, 2014 has earned $8.94 billion, which is 3.2% or $290 million lower than last year's pace. Again, it is hard to spin that number in a positive way.
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November 20th, 2014
There is only one wide release coming out this weekend, but it is the biggest release of the year. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 should have no trouble earning the biggest opening weekend of the year so far and it shouldn't take very long before it surpasses Guardians of the Galaxy for number one film of the year. As for the rest of the box office, there's not a lot to look forward to. Dumb and Dumber To will likely take a serious hit, while Big Hero 6 should overtake it over the weekend. This weekend last year, Catching Fire led the way with $158.07 million, which could be more than the entire box office earns this year. Hopefully that won't be the case, but I don't see how 2014 comes out ahead on the year-over-year comparison.
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November 20th, 2014
Interstellar remained in first place with $107.9 million in 63 markets over the weekend for totals of $225.8 million internationally and $322.7 million worldwide. This might be enough to cover the film's production budget, but probably not. That said, by this time next week, its worldwide total will be close to $500 million, which should put the film in the black. This weekend the film opened in first place in China with $42.67 million during its five-day opening. Perhaps more impressively, the film grew by 6% in South Korea helping it remain in first place with $13.13 million on 1,410 screens over the weekend for a total of $35.24 million after two weeks of release. It didn't hold up quite as well in the U.K., but still remained in first place with $5.91 million on 576 screens over the weekend for a total of $19.11 million.
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November 18th, 2014
There was some good news and bad news over the weekend. The good news was Dumb and Dumber To, which managed a stronger than expected opening, despite its reviews. The bad news was Beyond the Lights, which couldn't turn its reviews into box office success. That said, the good outweighed the bad and overall the box office was quite strong. It was still down 11% from last weekend to $140 million, but that's still 12% more than the same weekend last year. 2014 remains behind 2013's pace by 3.4% or $310 million at $8.72 billion to $9.03 billion, but every little victory will help soften the blow at the end of the year.
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November 13th, 2014
It is a slower weekend at the box office than last weekend. Granted, there are two films opening wide, but neither of them are expected to be a huge hit. Dumb and Dumber To is earning terrible reviews, but it is expecting to earn first place at the box office. Beyond the Lights is earning much better reviews, but it will likely only become a midlevel hit at best. As far as holdovers are concerned, both Big Hero 6 and Interstellar will continue to be big factors at the box office, but only these four films have a shot at $10 million or more at the box office. This weekend last year, Thor: The Dark World led the way with $36.59 million while The Best Man Holiday opened in second place with $30.11 million. I think the one-two punch this year will be better, plus we will have a lot more depth leading to 2014 earning a win in the year-over-year comparison.
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November 13th, 2014
As expected, Interstellar opened in first place on the international chart earning $82.90 million on 14,800 screens in 62 markets during its opening weekend. As you may or may not know, we introduced a new comprehensive look at the international numbers, so there's little more than needs to be said here. I will point out that the film's opening in South Korea was particularly strong at $12.46 million on 1,310 screens over the weekend, for a total opening of $14.21 million. The film also opened in first place in the U.K., with $8.53 million on 1,298 screens, which is about on par with its domestic opening, given the relative size of the two markets. Russia was close behind with $8.00 million on 1,800 screens. The film opened in China this week and those numbers should help the film remain in first place next weekend.
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November 10th, 2014
We had two potential monster hits go at it over the weekend and it appears the competition was a little too much and neither Big Hero 6 nor Interstellar lived up to lofty expectations, although Big Hero 6 was close. Combined the two movies earned more than $100 million over the weekend, which is reason to celebrate, even if the rest of the box office barely registered. Overall, the box office rose 65% from last weekend reaching $157 million. Wow. Unfortunately, this was still 6.5% lower than the same weekend last year. Had Interstellar matched expectations, 2014 would have come out on top of the year-over-year comparison. Hopefully it will have better legs than Thor: The Dark World did, or this weekend could be another loss. I'm hopeful, because The Dark World was a pretty big Fanboy film.
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November 9th, 2014
With studios cutting down on tentpole releases, and ever-more careful grooming of release schedules, it’s getting rarer to have a genuine head-to-head battle for top spot at the box office. But that’s exactly what we had this weekend, and, although both studios will rightly claim to be very happy with the outcome, execs at Disney will have the slightly bigger grins this Sunday. They are predicting a $56.2 million opening weekend for Big Hero 6, making it a clear winner over Interstellar, which Paramount says will post a round $50 million.
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November 6th, 2014
November begins with a powerful one-two punch. Both Interstellar and Big Hero 6 are expected to open with more than $50 million. On the high end, they could both clear $60 million. Interstellar was expected to win by a sizable margin, but its Wednesday IMAX opening was not quite as strong as expected, so it could be a closer than expected weekend. Those two films should easily pull in more than $100 million over the weekend, but unfortunately the rest of the box office will be well back. This weekend last year was similarly top-heavy with Thor: The Dark World earning $85.74 million, which was more than the rest of the box office combined. It looks like the year-over-year competition could be quite close, but I have to give 2014 the edge.
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November 6th, 2014
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles roared into first place with $34.9 million in 31 markets over the weekend for a running tally of $244.2 million internationally and $434.7 million worldwide. This includes a first place, $26.52 million opening in China. This is the film's last major market opening until it debuts in Japan in February. The film is aiming for $500 million worldwide by that time, but it is hard to tell how long a film's legs in China will be.
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November 3rd, 2014
Halloween is over and the box office took a real hit. Ouija was the only film that was a pleasant surprise topping expectations and earning first place. Nightcrawler matched expectations, but due to the competition, landed in second place. The other two films of note: Before I Go to Sleep and Saw, were... well, the less said the better. Overall, the box office fell 18% to just $95 million. Worse still, this was 25% lower than the same weekend last year. There is mitigating circumstances, as this weekend last year was the first weekend of November and didn't have to suffer with Halloween landing on the Friday. Next weekend will bounce back, obviously, but 2014 is running out of time to catch up to 2013. Currently it is down by 3.3% at $8.33 billion to $8.62 billion.
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November 2nd, 2014
Halloween weekend will be fought to the finish at the box office, with newcomer Nightcrawler and horror flick Ouija neck and neck, based on Sunday’s projections. Open Road’s 3-day projected number for Nightcrawler is $10,909,000, which technically gives it the edge over Universal’s $10,900,240 prediction for Ouija, but Ouija as of this morning, so it will all come down to whether Nightcrawler can win Sunday by a large enough margin to steal the race at the end. The tracking we’re seeing suggests that Ouija will just squeak out a win, but it could still go either way.
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October 30th, 2014
Tomorrow is Halloween, which is one of the worst days of the year as far as box office numbers are concerned. I would argue only Christmas Eve is worse. Nightcrawler is the only truly wide release of the week, but it is not expected to be a hit. It will likely earn first place, but with only around $10 million. There are two other films of note: Before I Go to Sleep and the tenth anniversary release of Saw. Before I Go to Sleep is the third release from Clarius Entertainment whose first two releases bombed horribly. This one is expected to finish somewhere in-between the first two at the box office. The Saw franchise is the highest grossing horror franchise of all time, but will people really go to theaters to see it? I would assume fans of these movies likely own the film on Blu-ray, so staying at home would be more appealing. Worse still, this weekend last year was the first weekend of November and it shows. There were five films that earned more than $10 million, led by Ender's Game. This year, we might have no movies earning more than $10 million. Ouch.
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October 29th, 2014
Annabelle rose from fifth to first place on the international market with $26.5 million in 62 markets for an international total of $126.7 million after a month of release. Obviously there will be another installment in this franchise. This past weekend, the film dominated Latin America earning first place in Mexico with $7.61 million on 2,742 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $10.87 million. This was double the original film's opening in that market. The film also earned top spot in Argentina ($1.4 million on 202 screens) and in Peru ($1.3 million). The film was pushed into second place in Brazil, but still managed $2.13 million on 388 screens over the weekend for a three-week total of $11.35 million.
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October 28th, 2014
As expected, Ouija won the race for first place, but it finished on the very low end of expectations. On the other hand, John Wick beat expectations earning second place. Overall, these two results balanced out, but this still resulted in the box office falling 12% from last weekend to $116 million. More importantly, it was 13% higher than the same weekend last year. 2014 is still behind 2013, but it is chipping away at the deficit, which has fallen to under $300 million at $8.20 billion to $8.49 billion. 2014 is still behind last year's pace by 3.4%, but if it can close that gap by the same amount in November and December, then at least by the end of the year, it will have closed the gap enough to call it a spiritual victory.
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October 26th, 2014
Teen horror movie Ouija will win this weekend at the box office with a solid $20 million debut and $7,000 theater average. With a budget reported at just $5 million, the movie is a sure-fire money maker for Universal, even with a shelf life of exactly eight days. By comparison, John Wick, which marks a return to form for Keanu Reeves, should have a longer run, based on its current reviews and word of mouth, but will have some ground to make up after opening with around $14 million.
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October 23rd, 2014
It is not a good week at the box office for new releases. There are only two films opening wide, one of which is earning terrible reviews and the other is earning terrible buzz. At the moment, Ouija's Tomatometer Score is barely in the double-digits. That said, it is a horror film opening the week before Halloween, so it should make at least $20 million at the box office. On the other hand, John Wick's reviews are Award-worthy... but the buzz is so quiet, I doubt many award voters will see it. This weekend last year was led by Bad Grandpa, which opened in first place with $32.06. Maybe if Ouija is a surprise hit, it will match that figure. However, while 2013 looked better at the top, it had really weak depth beyond the top five, so 2014 will likely win in the year-over-year comparison.
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October 22nd, 2014
Not only did Guardians of the Galaxy return to top spot on the international chart this past weekend, it reached two major milestones along the way. Over the weekend, it pulled in $23.1 million in 22 markets for totals of $404.8 million internationally and $732.6 million worldwide. The film earned $37.97 million in China, but that was for the full week, giving it $69.04 million after ten days of release. The film has yet to open in Italy and it might have a shot at $800 million worldwide by the time it ends its run there.
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October 21st, 2014
The weekend box office was a little softer than expected, with Fury earning first place, but with much less than some were expecting. I was a little more conservative and I was still off by close to $10 million. The rest of the top five, on the whole, were also not quite as strong as expected, so the overall box office fell 11% from last weekend. However, it was 26% higher than the same weekend last year, which is the much more important figure. 2014 is still behind 2013 by more than $300 million, or 3.6%, at $8.05 billion to $8.36 billion, but if we can close the gap a little bit each week, we can at least make it a respectable race in the end.
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October 19th, 2014
Fury will top the box office chart this weekend with a solid, but unspectacular, $23.5 million, according to Sony’s Sunday morning estimate. Pre-weekend projections had the film closer to $30 million, and with an $80 million price tag, and Brad Pitt starring, the film is really underperforming at this point. By way of comparison, Gone Girl opened with $37.5 million three weeks ago. Fury will need really good legs, or a really strong performance overseas, to post a profit.
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October 16th, 2014
Three wide releases are trying to fight for box office dollars, including Fury, which could be the biggest hit of the month. Its reviews are excellent and the buzz is strong enough that is should have no trouble earning first place. The Book of Life is a family friendly animated horror film opening near Halloween. That should be a combination that spells box office success, but while the reviews are strong, the buzz is not as loud as I would like. Finally, there's The Best of Me, the latest from Nicholas Sparks, but I think the shine has come off his career. Its early reviews are terrible, which isn't surprising. The buzz is rather quiet, which is a little more surprising. This weekend last year, Gravity completed the hat-trick earning just over $30 million. I think Fury will top that. The best new release last year was Carrie, which earned just over $16 million earning third place in the process. It looks like there are a couple of films that will earn a similar amount this year. Additionally, the depth again appears to be better than last year, so 2014 should find itself on top of the chart, again. This is a surprise, as at the beginning of the month, it looked like 2014 would be in an extended slump by this point.
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October 16th, 2014
Dracula Untold rose to first place with $33.9 million in 42 markets for a two-week total of $62.6 million. This week's biggest new market was Russia, where it pulled in first place with $9.81 million on 1,068 screens. It opened in second place in South Korea with $2.65 million on 477 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $4.29 million. Mexico led the holdovers with $2.78 million on 1,624 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $9.30 million in that market.
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October 14th, 2014
There were four new releases in the top ten, plus another that just missed that mark. Despite the competition, Gone Girl remained in first place and it earned a little more than expected. The biggest surprise was Dracula Untold, which earned first place on Friday and nearly took first place over the weekend. Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day grabbed third place, while there were other reasons to celebrate lower on the chart as well. Overall, the box office was on par with last weekend at $147 million. It was technically higher, but by 0.2%. Compared to last year, the box office was 26% higher, which was much better than anticipated. 2014 is still well behind 2013 by more than $300 million at $7.87 billion to $8.18 million, but every little bit helps. At this point, we are more concerned about limiting the losses than we are worried about completing the comeback.
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October 12th, 2014
What was largely expected to be a fairly comfortable win for Gone Girl this weekend turned out to be a bit of a squeaker, thanks to a better-than-expected $23.46 million estimated opening for Dracula Untold. The vampire actioner won the day on Friday, but couldn’t maintain its pace, with $8.7 million on Saturday, against Gone Girl’s $11.3 million. Projections for today have it potentially falling into third place behind Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day on Sunday, which doesn’t bode well for its legs long-term.
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October 11th, 2014
Dracula Untold enjoyed a better-than-expected opening day, and will top the chart for Friday. Saturday morning reports have it doing $8.9 million, well ahead of Gone Girl, which will land on $8.15 million. Dracula looks set for a weekend between $20 million and $25 million, which won’t be enough for an overall win. Gone Girl should end up between $25 million and $27 million for the weekend, down just 30% from its opening frame, and will be close to $80 million by Monday morning.
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October 9th, 2014
This weekend there are four new wide releases; however, none of them are expected to be big hits. In fact, Gone Girl is widely expected to repeat in first place, while Annabelle might have a shot at second place. Three of the new releases will likely finish in the midteens with Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day currently on track to become the best of the bad bunch of new films. The Judge has taken a huge tumble as far as analysts are concerned. Dracula Untold is in the mix and might earn second place, but it might also earn fifth. Regardless, it won't do well enough for a film that cost $100 million to make. Then there's Addicted, a movie whose buzz is so quiet I forgot it was opening this week. This weekend last year, Gravity again led the way with $43.19 million, while Captain Phillips opened in second place with $25.72 million. There's no chance any film will match Gravity. In fact, the top film this week will very likely be behind Captain Phillips. On the other hand, last year only one other film earned more than $4 million, so the depth was terrible. I think the depth this week should be enough to eke out a win.
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October 9th, 2014
Breakup Buddies led the way in China and overall with a weekend total of $38.0 million over the weekend for a six-day total of $94.13 million. That's fantastic start for a local film in this market.
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October 8th, 2014
The winners of our Get These Prizes Before they are Gone contest were determined and they are...
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October 7th, 2014
Keep On Keepin' On had the best weekend of its run earning an average of $13,291 in two theaters. Gone Girl earned an average of $12,446 in just over 3,000 theaters. Annabelle was very close behind with an average of $11,659 in close to 3,200 theaters.
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October 7th, 2014
As expected, Gone Girl won the race for top spot on the box office chart this weekend. However, while it earned more than expected, Annabelle still managed to make it a really close race. These two films, as well as the rest of the top five, all beat predictions and this lead to the overall box office growing 38% to $147 million. More impressively, this was 16% better than the same weekend last year. I was not expected 2014 to come out ahead on the year-over-year comparison, which makes this win so much more spectacular. Year-to-date, 2014 is still behind 2013 by a substantial margin of $370 million or 4.6% at $8.05 billion to $7.68 billion.
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October 2nd, 2014
The first weekend in October promises to be better than the average weekend in September was, but then again, it would practically have to. Gone Girl is aiming for first place and most analysts think it will get there. On the other, Annabelle has an outside shot at top spot over the weekend. That seems unlikely, but thanks to its genre, it has a better shot at earning first place on Friday's daily chart. The final wide release of the week is Left Behind, which as it turns out isn't opening truly wide. The buzz is so bad that some expect the film to open below the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Gravity opened in first place with $55.79 million. No film is going to open with that much money. In fact, all three wide releases combined might not make that much. 2014 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison, but frankly we should all be used to that by now.
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September 30th, 2014
September is over and while it got off to a bad start, a really, really, truly terrible start, it actually ended on a bit of a strong note. Granted, no film has yet to reach $100 million, but The Maze Runner and The Equalizer both could get there in the end. As for October, we might go another month without a $100 million hit. There are a couple of films that have the potential to reach the century mark, Gone Girl and Fury. Hopefully they will get there, but given the recent box office woes, it is probably best to keep expectations low. Last October, there were two films that earned more than $100 million. Bad Grandpa just made it passed that mark. On the other hand, Gravity was a monster hit earning nearly $275 million. It you compare its run to this year's batch of films, it only ranks behind Guardians of the Galaxy. ... There's no way any film opening this month is going to match that. ... There no way the top two films will match that. ... The top three films might not match that. ... 2014 is going to get crushed in the year-over-year comparison and by the end of the month, it will be safe to say its chances of ever catching up to 2013 will be over. It is going to be a depressing month.
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September 25th, 2014
October finally begins next week and Gone Girl should have no trouble leading the way at the box office. (Annabelle should be a midlevel hit, while Left Behind will be left behind at the box office.) Since Gone Girl could open with more than the other two films combined, it is the clear choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Gone Girl.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Decoding Annie Parker on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Decoding Annie Parker on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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