February 23rd, 2015
Once more, entrants in The Numbers Predict the Academy Awards Contest did an impressive job of predicting winners, in spite of a volatile Awards Season. Overall, the top voter-getters in 18 out 24 categories went on to win the Oscar on the night, including all acting awards, all but one of the technical awards, and all the short films.
Our biggest misses were actually in the biggest categories: Best Picture was won by Birdman, not Boyhood; Alejandro Inarritu beat Richard Linklater for Best Director; and Big Hero 6 prevailed over How to Train Your Dragon 2.
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February 22nd, 2015
The Oscar ceremony is tonight and we will be live-blogging the winners... assuming I don't get bored and wander away. On a serious note, while my job is all about movies and I love watching movies, I love paying attention to box office numbers, I even love Awards Season. I hate ceremonies. As per usual, here is the list of nominees marked according to predictions / wishes. Nominees in Bold are the ones predicted to win by our readers. If I predicted a different film, those are in Italics. Meanwhile, the nominees I want to win, but don't think will win, are Underlined. There are a few categories where the film I really think deserves the award were not even nominated, plus a few I don't have a real opinion on.
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February 22nd, 2015
The polls are closed in our 18th annual Predict the Academy Awards contest, and it has turned out to be the most exciting two-horse race in the history of the contest.
After weeks of intense debate among our voters, we have a virtual tie in the biggest categories of all: Best Picture and Best Director. The predicted Best Picture winner is, in fact, a statistical dead heat. Boyhood garnered 47% of the total vote, and Birdman 46%, giving the Linklater epic the tiniest of edges.
Best Director is a clearer contest, but still close, and still a bout between Boyhood and Birdman. Richard Linklater is favorite to win Best Director, perhaps in part because he’s more “due” for the award than Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu. As noted, though, “favorite” is strong, given the closeness of this category, with Linklater getting 55% of the votes and Inarritu taking a 46% share.
The other big story about this year’s contest is just how much of a two-horse contest it really is. With 93% of the Best Picture vote going to Birdman and Boyhood, the remaining nominees were left to split the other 7% of the vote. American Sniper, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything each gathered a handful of votes from The Numbers readers, and Selma and Whiplash are given virtually no chance at all.
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February 22nd, 2015
The Independent Spirit Awards winners were announced last night and there were few surprises. Birdman led the way with 3 wins, but it wasn't the only film to come away with more than one award.
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February 20th, 2015
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the biggest prize, Best Picture. Like with Best Director, this is a two-horse race with the same two films at the top of the list.
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February 20th, 2015
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the Best Director category, which is neither among the most nor among the least competitive categories. We definitely have a favorite, but we also have another nominee with a better than average shot at winning.
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February 17th, 2015
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the two writing categories, starting with Best Original Screenplay. This is actually a two-horse race and for once, I'd be happy with either of the two leading contenders winning.
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February 14th, 2015
The Writers Guild of America winners were just announced and there wasn't a lot of surprises to talk about, but enough interesting things happened that it wasn't boring.
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February 12th, 2015
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the two supporting actor categories, starting with Best Supporting Actress. Three of the four acting categories have almost no suspense to them, as there is an overwhelming favorite amongst the five nominees. This is not the exception.
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February 12th, 2015
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the two supporting actor categories, finishing with Best Supporting Actor. Like the Best Supporting Actress category, Best Supporting Actor isn't even close and one of the five nominees is absolutely running away with things.
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February 8th, 2015
The BAFTA winners were announced on Sunday and there were a few surprises, including the number one winner. The Grand Budapest Hotel took home five awards, while Boyhood, The Theory of Everything, and Whiplash earned three each.
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February 7th, 2015
The Directors Guild of America were handed out Saturday night and the number surprises was... well, none. Birdman was expected to win and it did, while CitizenFour is rapidly becoming the Oscar-favorite.
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February 3rd, 2015
Timbuktu was the only film in the $10,000 club this weekend earning an estimated average of $12,500 in four theaters. Running Man came close with an average of $9,246 in 20 theaters. Impressively, Game Of Thrones: The IMAX Experience earned 15th place on the overall chart with $1.46 million in just over 200 theaters for an average of $7,142. This is enough to expect this to happen again, but I don't know if it will be a regular thing.
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January 26th, 2015
The Screen Actors Guild winners were announced Sunday and there were some surprises, mostly in the negative. Birdman picked up the biggest prize, but there were six different winners in the six categories.
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January 24th, 2015
Left Behind led the new releases on the DVD chart, at least in terms of units sold, with 201,000. Its sales for the week were $2.05 million, giving it third place by that metric. This is not great for a first-run release, but not bad compared to the film's box office. It is also much better than its opening on Blu-ray.
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January 24th, 2015
The first set of new releases for Blu-ray didn't result in a change at the top, as The Equalizer remained on top of the chart during its sophomore stint. Over the week, it sold $143,000 / $3.48 million for two-week totals of 821,000 units / $17.08 million. This gives it a two-week Blu-ray share of 51%, which is good for an action film. It does have a slightly older target demographic, so that explains why it isn't as good as say...
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January 17th, 2015
The Oscar nominations were announced early in the morning, when all sensible people were asleep. There were some surprises, as well as some results that would have been surprises had it not been for the previous Awards Season nominations. Seventeen films earned two or more nods, led by Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel, both of which picked up nine nominations, while The Imitation Game was right behind with eight.
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January 15th, 2015
The Directors Guild of America were the last major Awards Season group to hand out their nominations and did so over two days this week. Not surprisingly, for the most part, the same group of films appear on this list as have appeared on the rest of the Awards Season nominations. Birdman, Boyhood, and The Imitation Game all make appearances,
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January 12th, 2015
We are still waiting for the DGA nominations to be announced, but we had the first major awards show on Sunday. The Golden Globes winners were announced Sunday night and while there were not a lot of surprises, there are some things worth talking about. Leading the way with three wins was Boyhood, while Birdman and The Theory of Everything each picked up a pair of wins.
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January 11th, 2015
The BAFTA nominations were announced yesterday and unlike most other Awards Season voters, the BAFTA voters gave us some real surprises. For instance, Birdman didn't lead the way. In fact, it was a comedy, The Grand Budapest Hotel, that earned the most nominations at 11. Granted, Birdman and The Theory of Everything were tied for second place with ten each, but it is still strange to see a comedy leading the way.
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January 10th, 2015
The Writers Guild of America nominations were latest to be announced, but were there any real surprises? Yes. Birdman didn't get a nomination, but Guardians of the Galaxy did. More on that later. Besides those two films, there are not a lot of surprises here and the usual contenders are present, including Boyhood and The Imitation Game, but there are also some other notable films missing.
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January 10th, 2015
The Producers Guild of America nominations were announced and there's not a lot of surprises among the three categories. Birdman, Boyhood, The Imitation Game, and others continue to get accolades, but there are also some films that are being passed over too often.
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January 5th, 2015
It is a strange week on the home market, as there are five contenders for Pick of the Week, including three of them that start with the letter G. However, this isn't because the week is loaded with simply amazing titles. It's because none of the contenders were simply amazing in both quality and extras. Archer: Season 5 on DVD or Blu-ray, Boyhood on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack, Get on Up on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack, Girls: Season 3 on DVD or Blu-ray, and The Guest on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack were the five contenders. Boyhood is the best in the Award-worthy meaning of the word, Archer is the show I would get the most entertainment from. In the end, it was down to a coin toss, a literal coin toss, and Archer: Season 5 on DVD or Blu-ray won.
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December 11th, 2014
The Golden Globes nominations were announced this morning, at three in the morning, because the people at Golden Globes are under the delusion that news announced at 3:00 a.m. is somehow more important if it is announced before anyone is awake. As for the actual nominations, like with the Independent Spirit Awards and the SAG nominations, Birdman led the way. It earned seven nominations, while Boyhood and The Imitation Game tied for second with five apiece. Starting to notice a pattern here? This could be a really dull Awards Season with very few surprises. On the other hand, predictable means less work for me. Plus, predictable probably means the Awards Season voters are making the right choices, as surprises usually mean someone made the wrong choice.
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December 10th, 2014
The Screen Actors Guild nominations were announced Wednesday morning. Are there surprises worth mentioning? Is the Oscar picture beginning to take shape? Like with the Independent Spirit Awards, Birdman led the way this time earning four nominations from six categories, while Boyhood, The Imitation Game, and The Theory of Everything had three nods each.
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December 6th, 2014
The Independent Spirit Awards nominations were announced last week and I'm getting to them a little late, because I needed to organize the whole Awards Season stories. Firstly, I've decided to use the year the movies were released not the year the awards are handed out, unlike what we did last year. This means both will have 2014 as the year. Not ideal, but it is better to fix the mistake now than carry on making it. Secondly, the headlines are just going to be the name of the Awards and either nominations or winners. This will make it easier for readers to find later on. As for the Independent Spirit Awards nominations, Birdman led the way with 6 nods, while Boyhood, Nightcrawler, and Selma were right behind with 5 each.
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September 10th, 2014
There was only one film in the $10,000 club this weekend, Last Days in Vietnam, which earned an average of $15,225 in two theaters.
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August 27th, 2014
The only new limited release in the $10,000 club on the per theater chart was Love is Strange, which earned an average of $23,455 in five theaters. There were two holdovers in the $10,000 club with The Trip to Italy earning an average of $10,645 in ten theaters while The Admiral: Roaring Currents was right behind with an average of $10,213 in 47 screens.
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August 24th, 2014
Even though it is nine years since original movie opened with $29 million and topped a fairly lackluster April weekend, few predicted going into the Summer that Sin City: A Dame to Kill For would finish in 8th place on debut. In spite of little competition the neo-noir thriller will post about $6.5 million from 2,894 theaters, putting it in third place among the openers. Tearjerker If I Stay is the best new release this weekend, with an expected $16.35 million from 2,907 theaters, for a very respectable average of $5,600. It will be third overall behind Guardians of the Galaxy, which will pass $250 million today, and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, which falls to second place with $16.8 million this weekend and $145 million in total. With a little over $1 million separating the top three, it’s conceivable that the order could change when final results are reported on Monday.
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August 17th, 2014
Three lackluster debuts have allowed Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Guardians of the Galaxy to keep the top two spots at the box office this weekend. Turtles will be down a fairly modest 57% in its second weekend for $28.4 million, and $117.6 million in total after two weekends. Guardians will be down 41% in its third weekend for a total of $222 million, and will remain on track to become the highest-grossing film of the Summer. Things look much less pretty for the openers.
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August 12th, 2014
The Admiral: Roaring Currents had a stunning opening with an estimated $43,000 in its sole theaters. It will be interesting to see if the film can maintain this success as it expands wider. The overall box office leader, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, was second with an opening weekend average of $17,055. The Guardians of the Galaxy remained in the $10,000 club for the second weekend of its release earning an average of $10,305.
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August 6th, 2014
The overall box office leader, The Guardians of the Galaxy, also led the way on the per theater chart with an average of $23,118 in just over 4,000 theaters. Second place went to Calvary, with an average of $18,537 in four theaters. The final film in the $10,000 club was Magic in the Moonlight, with an average of $11,396 in 65 theaters.
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August 3rd, 2014
It was a big, big weekend at the box office with Guardians of the Galaxy pulling in an estimated $94 million. The majority of analysts thought it would break the August weekend record, but very few thought it would have one of the top five openings of the year. Additionally, the film earned some of the best reviews of the year and could become the biggest hit of the year... at least untill Mockingjay, Part 1 hits theaters in November. Get On Up did not do as well earning $14.03 million and grabbing third place along the way. This is barely more than Jersey Boys opened with in June. Its reviews should help it earn better legs and it wasn't an expensive movie to make, so the studio should be relatively happy with this start.
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July 29th, 2014
Magic in the Moonlight led the way on the per theater chart with an average of $24,241 in 17 theaters, which is great for most films, but not as strong as some of Woody Allen's more recent releases. Arguably, Boyhood's weekend was much stronger, as it earned an average of $16,466 in 107 theaters. At this point, I'm not sure how long it will last in theaters, but it has already earned at least a measure of mainstream success. The overall number one film, Lucy, was the only other film in the $10,000 club with an average of $13,835.
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July 27th, 2014
This weekend’s boys versus girls box office match-up has proven to be a triumph for the girls, with Lucy enjoying a decisive win over Hercules. The Scarlett Johansson/Luc Besson sci-fi thriller will post an opening around $44 million, according to Universal’s Sunday estimate, which is almost exactly 50% more than the $29 million debut projected for Hercules. The difference in budgets between the two films is even starker with Hercules clocking in at around $100 million, and Lucy reportedly closer to $40 million.
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July 23rd, 2014
The biggest film on the per theater chart this weekend was Boyhood, for the second weekend in a row. It expanded from 5 to 34 theaters, but its average fell just 56% to $34,418. That's fantastic. It has already earned a measure of mainstream success, while it has its eyes on Chef for best limited release for the summer. Second place went to There's No Place Like Utopia with $30,710 in one theater. This is a great start, but there are still no reviews, so I think it will have short legs. A Five Star Life and Mood Indigo were relatively close with averages of $15,996 and $13,256 respectively. The only wide release to reach the $10,000 club was The Purge: Anarchy, which earned an average of $10,626.
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July 20th, 2014
Only one new release really fired at the box office this weekend, and even that film, The Purge: Anarchy couldn’t topple Dawn of the Planet of the Apes from top spot on the chart. Apes will be down 50% from last weekend, to $36 million, and its cume is hovering around $140 million so far. It seems destined to be another film that ends up around $200 million this Summer. Anarchy will open with about $28.4 million, according to Universal, for a theater average of almost exactly $10,000. That’s stellar business for a film costing $9 million to make, although it is off a bit from the $34 million open enjoyed by last year’s surprise hit. A third installment seems inevitable (and a direct-to-video Part 4 is a good bet).
The weekend’s other two wide releases were well behind the pace.
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July 15th, 2014
After a weekend with no films in the $10,000 club, this weekend we had the second best per theater average for the year. Boyhood earned nearly $400,000 in just five theaters for an average of $77,524. This is the second best per theater average for the year; only The Grand Budapest Hotel opened with a better average. The overall box office leader, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, was next with an average of $18,304 in nearly 4,000 theaters.
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July 13th, 2014
In the midst of a disappointing Summer for Hollywood, the arrival of an unabashed success is welcome news indeed, and that’s what we have this weekend, with Dawn of the Planet of the Apes delivering an excellent $73 million opening weekend, well ahead of early industry expectations. The success of the film is most likely down to two factors: first, its reviews have been excellent, and, second, its storyline is sufficiently interesting to draw in people who aren’t excited by the thought of yet another super hero/monster movie. After the success of Maleficent and the failure of Edge of Tomorrow, films that strive to be a bit different are now scoring 2 out of 3 this Summer; films that are the product of formulas and marketing departments haven’t produced a single out-and-out hit. If the studios could get the message in the that, we really would see the dawn of something.
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July 11th, 2014
There are more than a dozen limited releases coming out this week, including a few earning good buzz and / or good reviews. Closed Curtain, Land Ho!, Underwater Dreams all have a shot at finding an audience in limited release. However, leading this pack is Boyhood, the latest from Richard Linklater. If only one movie is a hit this weekend, it will most likely be Boyhood.
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