Weekend Predictions: Are the New Releases Strong? Or will Jumanji Rule Forever?

January 18th, 2018

The post-holiday weekend is rarely a good week to release a movie and none of the three new releases are expected to be box office successes. 12 Strong is the biggest release and it is also earning the best reviews, although its Tomatometer Score is just 50% positive. Den of Thieves isn’t opening as wide, while its reviews are not as good. It also shares its target audience with 12 Strong, which will hurt its box office chances even more. Finally there’s Forever My Girl, which is barely opening semi-wide and will likely miss the top ten. This weekend last year, Split had a shockingly big opening. In fact, the second place film, xXx: Return of Xander Cage, opened with just over $20 million, which is more than any film is expected to earn this weekend. 2018’s mini-winning streak is about to come to a painful end. More...

2016 Preview: June

June 1st, 2016

May was great, as long as you don't compare it to last May. Captain America: Civil War was a monster hit and is closing in on $400 million, while both X-Men: Apocalypse and The Angry Birds Movie will earn over $100 million. Looking ahead, every week in June, there is one movie that should top $100 million; however, only Finding Dory is expected to make more than $200 million. In fact, that film is expected to make close to $400 million domestically and over $1 billion worldwide. Last June, there were two monster hits, Inside Out and Jurassic World, plus one $100 million hit, Spy. I don't see how 2016 will top that. Even if every film with a shot at $100 million gets to that milestone, 2016 still might not top last year's pace. Fortunately, 2016 does have a large lead and that could be enough to keep 2016 ahead of 2015's pace in the year-over-year competition. It could be really close at the end of the month, on the other hand. More...

Home Market Releases for May 3rd, 2016

May 2nd, 2016

This week the biggest releases are busted Oscar-bait, Joy; a post-apocalyptic young adult adaptation, The 5th Wave; and the latest from Nicholas Sparks, The Choice. Joy is worth at least a rental. The other two are not. There are no major releases that are contenders for Pick of the Week, so that title will go to a smaller release, East Side Sushi on DVD. It has earned unanimously positive reviews, but no buzz. More...

Weekend Estimates: Panda holds off Caesar on Super Bowl weekend

February 7th, 2016

Super Bowl weekend isn’t exactly known for super-sized box office results, and this year will prove to be no exception, with Kung Fu Panda 3 comfortably winning the weekend with $21 million, down 49% from its debut. Hail, Caesar! will land in second place with $11.4 million or so, which is a decent performance from 2,232 theaters, although quite a bit softer than The Ladykillers’ $12.6 million first outing from 1,583 theaters back in 2004, and well behind the kind of numbers posted by True Grit. More...

Friday Estimates: Panda Buries Caesar

February 6th, 2016

Kung Fu Panda 3 will easily win the race for top spot at the weekend box office. Not only did it earn first place on Friday with $5.2 million, but of all of the wide releases, it will be among the least affected by Super Bowl Sunday. Unfortunately, this is still a little lower than predicted and it will likely only earn just over $20 million over the weekend. Its worldwide total is closing in on its production budget and it has barely started its international run, so there’s plenty of reason for DreamWorks to be happy, and there’s justification for another installment in the franchise. More...

Weekend Predictions: Hail, Holdovers!

February 4th, 2016

It's a new month and there are three wide releases trying to score and get February off to a fast start. That's probably not going to happen. Not only do the wide releases have to deal with Kung Fu Panda 3, but it is also Super Bowl Weekend with the Carolina Idontknows Playing the Dever Somethingabouthorses. ... Once the Seattle Seahawks were eliminated, I completely stopped caring about the NFL. The best new release of the week is Hail, Caesar!, which is the only film with a real shot at becoming a midlevel hit. Pride and Prejudice and Zombies started out with mixed reviews, but that might not be a dealbreaker for its target audience. Finally there's The Choice. There are still not enough reviews for a Tomatometer Score and the buzz appears to be getting worse. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water led the way this weekend last year, with more than all three new releases will earn this year. More...

2016 Preview: February

February 1st, 2016

As expected, January was dominated by holdovers with Star Wars: The Force Awakens and The Revenant leading the way. That's not to say there were no new releases that did well, as Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3 were hits with moviegoers. Looking forward, there is only one film that looks like a sure hit, Deadpool. There's a slim chance it could be a surprise $200 million hit. There's a much better chance it will be the only $100 million hit. Conversely, last February started with a $100 million hit coming out, The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water, while there were two other $100 million movies to come out that month, Fifty Shades of Grey and Kingsman: The Secret Service. Looks like 2016 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Contest: Seize Your Prizes

January 29th, 2016

There are three wide releases coming out next week and I think Hail, Caesar! is the only one that will be even a midlevel hit. The Choice is the latest from Nicholas Sparks, who used to have a box office winning streak, but that ended a while ago. Meanwhile, Pride and Prejudice and Zombies is a relatively new addition to the wide release schedule, as it was expected to open in limited release not too long ago. It looks like Hail, Caesar! will be the biggest of the three wide releases and because of this, it is the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Hail, Caesar!.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows. Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: The Age of Adaline

September 7th, 2015

The Age of Adaline was a late April release, which is one of three dumping grounds throughout the calender. The big summer releases are just around the corner and are sucking up all of the available hype. Because of this, it is hard for a late April release to thrive and studios tend to dump misfires or counter-programming films during these weeks. So is The Age of Adaline a misfire? Or does it fit nicely into the counter-programming role? More...

Home Market Releases for July 14th, 2015

July 13th, 2015

It is both a good and a bad week on the home market. The biggest new release is Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2. That's bad. However, there are also a trio of limited releases coming out this week that are easily contenders for Pick of the Week: Clouds of Sils Maria, Ex Machina, and It Follows. It is really a coin-toss between those three, but in the end, I went with Clouds of Sils Maria - Buy from Amazon: DVD. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Furious Completes Sweep

April 27th, 2015

As expected, Furious 7 completed the sweep winning every single weekend in April. Thankfully, every film in the top five matched or exceeded predictions, including The Age of Adaline, which had a solid third place opening. However, the overall box office still fell 18% from last weekend to just $97 million. This was also 16% lower than the same weekend last year. 2015 is still ahead of 2014 by a margin of 2.3% at $3.13 billion to $3.06 billion. More...

Weekend Predictions: Is the Age of Furious 7 Over?

April 23rd, 2015

The Age of Adaline is the only true wide release this week, and that could give it a boost at the box office. However, I seriously doubt that will give it a large enough boost to top Furious 7, which is looking to sweep the month of April. There is one other new release, Little Boy, that has a shot at the top ten. Finally, Ex Machina is expanding “nationwide.” I don't have a theater count for the film, but many think it will be truly wide, which would give it a shot at the top five. The Other Woman opened in first place this weekend last year, earning nearly $25 million. There’s no chance any film will match that figure this year. The top two films combined might not match that figure this year, so April will end on a losing note in the year-over-year comparison. That’s disappointing, but we will make up for the loss next week. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Furious be Friendly to the New Releases?

April 16th, 2015

Furious 7 could be knocked out of top spot on the box office chart this weekend, as there are three wide releases coming out this week. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 appears to be the biggest and many think it will earn first place. However, its reviews are currently zero percent positive. Unfriended's reviews are still in the overall positive area, but I'm not sure how long that will last, as they've fallen quite a bit from earlier in the week. The only film with overwhelming positive reviews is Monkey Kingdom, which is opening in barely more than 2,000 theaters. This weekend last year, there were four wide releases and overall there were three films that earned $20 million or more. I think this weekend we could match that and that could give 2015 the victory in the year-over-year comparison. It could be close, on the other hand. More...

International Box Office: Furious Eight... Hundred Million

April 16th, 2015

Furious 7 remained just as dominant at the international box office this weekend as it did in its opening weekend earning $198.7 million in 66 markets for totals of $550.47 million internationally and $802.0 million worldwide. It became the first film in the franchise and just the 46th film overall to crack the $800 million market worldwide. This past weekend, the film earned first place in China with $63.24 million in just one day. The film opened on Sunday there, with a record opening day for that market, which was close to its opening day domestic box office. The film opened in first place in Russia with $15.86 million on 1,184 screens. At this pace, the film will top $1 billion over the weekend and I can't imagine the studio won't try to make an eighth installment. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Furious Races into Top Spot for the Year

April 14th, 2015

It didn't take long for for Furious 7 to become the biggest hit of the year; in fact, it took just five days to top Cinderella. Over the weekend, it became the first film released in 2015 to reach the $200 million milestone and thanks to a better than expected hold, reached $250 million as well. Home finished well back in second place, while The Longest Ride managed third place. Overall, the box office fell 42% from last weekend down to $131 million, which is 6.3% lower than the same weekend last year. Furious 7 topped Captain America: The Winter Soldier, but Rio 2 and the other films of 2014 had better depth giving 2014 the win. 2015 is still ahead in the year-to-date comparison, up 4.1% at $2.85 billion to $2.74 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Furious 7 Easily Top Again, Passes $250 Million

April 12th, 2015

With little in the way of direct competition, Furious 7 will maintain a comfortable lead at the box office this weekend, according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning. Universal is projecting a $60.6 million weekend, for a total of $252.5 million after 10 days in release. That will make the film the 9th-fastest to the $250 million mark (see current list here). With the film’s international box office total rushing to $548 million so far, it will have topped $800 million globally by the end of the weekend, moving it past Fifty Shades of Grey to become, by a healthy margin, the top-grossing movie worldwide in 2015. More...

Weekend Predictions: Longest Ride is a Long Shot for Top Spot

April 9th, 2015

There's only one wide release this week, The Longest Ride, but it has an approximately zero percent chance of earning first place. Unless Furious 7 falls about 80% and The Longest Ride beats expectations, it will be no where near top spot. In fact, The Longest Ride likely won't be able to score second place, finishing behind Home. As for this weekend last year, there were three wide releases, led by Rio 2, which earned second place with $39.33 million. The Longest Ride might not make that much in total. On the other hand, the sophomore stint for Furious 7 will top the sophomore stint for Captain America: The Winter Soldier. 2015 will be stronger on top, but that might not be enough to win in the year-over-year comparison. More...

2015 Preview: April

April 1st, 2015

March ended on a good note and helped 2015 maintain its lead over 2014 thanks to a trio of $100 million movies: Cinderella, Insurgent, and Home. April isn't as strong as far as depth goes, as only Furious 7 is expected to come close to $100 million at the box office. On the positive side, it could earn $100 million during its opening weekend, becoming the fastest starting film of the year, so far. On the negative side, it is expected to earn more than double the rest of the films' combined box office totals. Even worse, last April, there were two $100 million hits, including Captain America: The Winter Soldier, as well as two others that came close. There's no way April 2015 is going to live up to April 2014. I just hope the collapse isn't so bad that 2015 loses its lead over 2014 completely. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Ouija Wins, But Stars Softer Than Expected

October 28th, 2014

As expected, Ouija won the race for first place, but it finished on the very low end of expectations. On the other hand, John Wick beat expectations earning second place. Overall, these two results balanced out, but this still resulted in the box office falling 12% from last weekend to $116 million. More importantly, it was 13% higher than the same weekend last year. 2014 is still behind 2013, but it is chipping away at the deficit, which has fallen to under $300 million at $8.20 billion to $8.49 billion. 2014 is still behind last year's pace by 3.4%, but if it can close that gap by the same amount in November and December, then at least by the end of the year, it will have closed the gap enough to call it a spiritual victory. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Fury et al are a Little Calmer than Expected

October 21st, 2014

The weekend box office was a little softer than expected, with Fury earning first place, but with much less than some were expecting. I was a little more conservative and I was still off by close to $10 million. The rest of the top five, on the whole, were also not quite as strong as expected, so the overall box office fell 11% from last weekend. However, it was 26% higher than the same weekend last year, which is the much more important figure. 2014 is still behind 2013 by more than $300 million, or 3.6%, at $8.05 billion to $8.36 billion, but if we can close the gap a little bit each week, we can at least make it a respectable race in the end. More...

Weekend Predictions: Are the New Releases All Wind and Fury?

October 16th, 2014

Three wide releases are trying to fight for box office dollars, including Fury, which could be the biggest hit of the month. Its reviews are excellent and the buzz is strong enough that is should have no trouble earning first place. The Book of Life is a family friendly animated horror film opening near Halloween. That should be a combination that spells box office success, but while the reviews are strong, the buzz is not as loud as I would like. Finally, there's The Best of Me, the latest from Nicholas Sparks, but I think the shine has come off his career. Its early reviews are terrible, which isn't surprising. The buzz is rather quiet, which is a little more surprising. This weekend last year, Gravity completed the hat-trick earning just over $30 million. I think Fury will top that. The best new release last year was Carrie, which earned just over $16 million earning third place in the process. It looks like there are a couple of films that will earn a similar amount this year. Additionally, the depth again appears to be better than last year, so 2014 should find itself on top of the chart, again. This is a surprise, as at the beginning of the month, it looked like 2014 would be in an extended slump by this point. More...

2014 Preview: October

September 30th, 2014

September is over and while it got off to a bad start, a really, really, truly terrible start, it actually ended on a bit of a strong note. Granted, no film has yet to reach $100 million, but The Maze Runner and The Equalizer both could get there in the end. As for October, we might go another month without a $100 million hit. There are a couple of films that have the potential to reach the century mark, Gone Girl and Fury. Hopefully they will get there, but given the recent box office woes, it is probably best to keep expectations low. Last October, there were two films that earned more than $100 million. Bad Grandpa just made it passed that mark. On the other hand, Gravity was a monster hit earning nearly $275 million. It you compare its run to this year's batch of films, it only ranks behind Guardians of the Galaxy. ... There's no way any film opening this month is going to match that. ... There no way the top two films will match that. ... The top three films might not match that. ... 2014 is going to get crushed in the year-over-year comparison and by the end of the month, it will be safe to say its chances of ever catching up to 2013 will be over. It is going to be a depressing month. More...

Weekend Predictions: New Releases are Far from Super

January 30th, 2014

It's the Super Bowl weekend, so needless to say, the new releases are looking rather weak. Why would any studio want to release a film against what is the largest single sporting event of the year? There are two wide releases coming out, but neither is expected to make much of an impact. That Awkward Moment is the bigger of the two wide releases, but its reviews are terrible. It should still earn first place, because there's no competition to speak of. Labor Day's reviews are slightly better and its target demographic has very little crossover appeal with the Super Bowl. Even so, most think it will miss the top five. This weekend last year, Warm Bodies earned first place with just over $20 million. If That Awkward Moment earns $20 million, I will be shocked. It might not earn too much more than half of that. More...

DVD and Blu-ray Releases for January 28th, 2014

January 28th, 2014

There are a large number of first run releases coming out this week on the home market, five in total. This is a huge amount. This week, the latest season of Downton Abby also comes out on the home market, and it is the best selling new release of the week, at least according to Amazon.com. So at the top, it is a really busy week. On the other hand, there's very little depth. Beyond those six releases, there's not a lot to talk about. Out of all of the movies on this week's list, Rush is the best movie, but the DVD and Blu-ray Combo Pack are only good and not great. On the other hand, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 on Blu-ray or 3D Blu-ray is the best total package. Meanwhile, I finally got a chance to review Carrie (the screener arrived late) and it was better than I thought it would be and the Blu-ray Combo Pack is worth picking up, especially if you haven't seen the original movie. More...

DVD and Blu-ray Releases for May 7th, 2013

May 7th, 2013

While there are a lot of new releases listed on Amazon.com, it isn't long before you run into filler. Worse still, the top two selling movies, Jack Reacher and Save Haven, are just mediocre movies. The Great Escape is coming out on Blu-ray this week, which would normally be a reason to celebrate. However, a lot of reviewers are complaining about the poor video quality. The film needed, and deserves, a full restoration, but that didn't happen. We need to look further down the list to find a Pick of the Week contender, and we find one in 30 Rock: Season Seven. More...

Weekend Predictions: Dark Skies for New Releases

February 21st, 2013

There are just two wide releases coming out this week, Snitch and Dark Skies. Most analysts think Snitch is the stronger of the two films, but most also think Identity Thief will return to top spot. Looking at all of the evidence, it certainly seems that way. Unless one of the new releases is a truly big surprise, it looks like we won't keep pace with last year again this weekend. 2013 needed to get off to a really fast start, because there's no film that's going to match The Hunger Games, and once we are dealing with that film in the year-over-year comparison, 2013 might be sunk for good. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Death of a Franchise

February 20th, 2013

The Valentine's Day / President's Day five-day weekend wasn't as lucrative as many had hoped, at least not at the top, which is really bad news for a year that is not off to a great start. A Good Day to Die Hard won the race, but barely, with Identity Thief coming in a very close second over the weekend. Other new releases, like Safe Haven and Escape From Planet Earth did better than expected, while Beautiful Creatures crashed. The overall box office did rise by 36% to $141 million over the three-day period, but the holiday explains that growth. Compare to last year, 2013 actually failed to match last President's Day by 9.3% over the three-day period and with $168 million including Monday, missed the four-day period by 13%. Year-to-date, 2013 is behind 2012 by 6.7% at $1.28 billion to $1.37 billion. I am officially concerned. More...

Weekend Predictions: All the Presidents' Valentines

February 14th, 2013

It's Valentine's Day today, while Monday is President's Day, so the box office has an unofficial five-day weekend. There's not much of a mystery regarding which of the four wide releases will top the chart this weekend, as nearly everyone expects A Good Day to Die Hard will come out on top. Maybe Safe Haven will earn first place tonight, but very few expect that will last after Valentine's day. Despite earning better than expected reviews, Beautiful Creatures isn't expected to compete for the top spot, or even second place. So far there are no reviews for Escape From Planet Earth and it might be stuck in fifth place. Because of a misalignment in Valentine's Day, we should do better this weekend compared to the same weekend last year, which is good news, as 2013 is in a mini-slump. More...

2013 Preview: February

February 1st, 2013

For the most part, January was a really good month and 2013 got off to a really good start. I'm not so sure about February, on the other hand. There's only one film that has a statistically significant shot at $100 million, A Good Day to Die Hard, but I'm a little concerned that it won't live up to expectations. The franchise has been around a long time and it is possible that the target audience has either moved on or are too young to remember when these films were huge at the box office. The film I'm most looking forward to seeing is Warm Bodies, which is earning amazing early reviews (the keyword there is "early"), but it is too high-concept to be a major hit. Last February, there were a couple of films that topped $100 million, plus a few other midlevel hits. I would like to think that would also be the case this year, but I have to be more cautious than that. The evidence points to a weak month ahead, for the most part. More...

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