February 22nd, 2015
The Oscar ceremony is tonight and we will be live-blogging the winners... assuming I don't get bored and wander away. On a serious note, while my job is all about movies and I love watching movies, I love paying attention to box office numbers, I even love Awards Season. I hate ceremonies. As per usual, here is the list of nominees marked according to predictions / wishes. Nominees in Bold are the ones predicted to win by our readers. If I predicted a different film, those are in Italics. Meanwhile, the nominees I want to win, but don't think will win, are Underlined. There are a few categories where the film I really think deserves the award were not even nominated, plus a few I don't have a real opinion on.
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February 22nd, 2015
The polls are closed in our 18th annual Predict the Academy Awards contest, and it has turned out to be the most exciting two-horse race in the history of the contest.
After weeks of intense debate among our voters, we have a virtual tie in the biggest categories of all: Best Picture and Best Director. The predicted Best Picture winner is, in fact, a statistical dead heat. Boyhood garnered 47% of the total vote, and Birdman 46%, giving the Linklater epic the tiniest of edges.
Best Director is a clearer contest, but still close, and still a bout between Boyhood and Birdman. Richard Linklater is favorite to win Best Director, perhaps in part because he’s more “due” for the award than Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu. As noted, though, “favorite” is strong, given the closeness of this category, with Linklater getting 55% of the votes and Inarritu taking a 46% share.
The other big story about this year’s contest is just how much of a two-horse contest it really is. With 93% of the Best Picture vote going to Birdman and Boyhood, the remaining nominees were left to split the other 7% of the vote. American Sniper, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything each gathered a handful of votes from The Numbers readers, and Selma and Whiplash are given virtually no chance at all.
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February 20th, 2015
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the biggest prize, Best Picture. Like with Best Director, this is a two-horse race with the same two films at the top of the list.
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February 20th, 2015
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the Best Director category, which is neither among the most nor among the least competitive categories. We definitely have a favorite, but we also have another nominee with a better than average shot at winning.
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February 17th, 2015
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the two writing categories, starting with Best Original Screenplay. This is actually a two-horse race and for once, I'd be happy with either of the two leading contenders winning.
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February 14th, 2015
The Writers Guild of America winners were just announced and there wasn't a lot of surprises to talk about, but enough interesting things happened that it wasn't boring.
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February 9th, 2015
New releases dominated the Blu-ray Sales Chart earning the top three spots. This includes Lucy, which opened in first place with 425,000 units / $8.71 million for an opening week Blu-ray share of 54%. Action films tend to do really well on Blu-ray, so this result isn't too much of a surprise.
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February 8th, 2015
The BAFTA winners were announced on Sunday and there were a few surprises, including the number one winner. The Grand Budapest Hotel took home five awards, while Boyhood, The Theory of Everything, and Whiplash earned three each.
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January 17th, 2015
The Oscar nominations were announced early in the morning, when all sensible people were asleep. There were some surprises, as well as some results that would have been surprises had it not been for the previous Awards Season nominations. Seventeen films earned two or more nods, led by Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel, both of which picked up nine nominations, while The Imitation Game was right behind with eight.
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January 15th, 2015
The Directors Guild of America were the last major Awards Season group to hand out their nominations and did so over two days this week. Not surprisingly, for the most part, the same group of films appear on this list as have appeared on the rest of the Awards Season nominations. Birdman, Boyhood, and The Imitation Game all make appearances,
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January 12th, 2015
We are still waiting for the DGA nominations to be announced, but we had the first major awards show on Sunday. The Golden Globes winners were announced Sunday night and while there were not a lot of surprises, there are some things worth talking about. Leading the way with three wins was Boyhood, while Birdman and The Theory of Everything each picked up a pair of wins.
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January 11th, 2015
The BAFTA nominations were announced yesterday and unlike most other Awards Season voters, the BAFTA voters gave us some real surprises. For instance, Birdman didn't lead the way. In fact, it was a comedy, The Grand Budapest Hotel, that earned the most nominations at 11. Granted, Birdman and The Theory of Everything were tied for second place with ten each, but it is still strange to see a comedy leading the way.
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January 10th, 2015
The Writers Guild of America nominations were latest to be announced, but were there any real surprises? Yes. Birdman didn't get a nomination, but Guardians of the Galaxy did. More on that later. Besides those two films, there are not a lot of surprises here and the usual contenders are present, including Boyhood and The Imitation Game, but there are also some other notable films missing.
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January 10th, 2015
The Producers Guild of America nominations were announced and there's not a lot of surprises among the three categories. Birdman, Boyhood, The Imitation Game, and others continue to get accolades, but there are also some films that are being passed over too often.
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December 11th, 2014
The Golden Globes nominations were announced this morning, at three in the morning, because the people at Golden Globes are under the delusion that news announced at 3:00 a.m. is somehow more important if it is announced before anyone is awake. As for the actual nominations, like with the Independent Spirit Awards and the SAG nominations, Birdman led the way. It earned seven nominations, while Boyhood and The Imitation Game tied for second with five apiece. Starting to notice a pattern here? This could be a really dull Awards Season with very few surprises. On the other hand, predictable means less work for me. Plus, predictable probably means the Awards Season voters are making the right choices, as surprises usually mean someone made the wrong choice.
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December 10th, 2014
The Screen Actors Guild nominations were announced Wednesday morning. Are there surprises worth mentioning? Is the Oscar picture beginning to take shape? Like with the Independent Spirit Awards, Birdman led the way this time earning four nominations from six categories, while Boyhood, The Imitation Game, and The Theory of Everything had three nods each.
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July 14th, 2014
Under the Skin stars Scarlett Johansson, which gave the film a lot more star power than most limited releases have. On the other hand, the premise was a little out there, so much so that it really never had a shot at expanding significantly. It managed $2.5 million, which is great, especially considering so far this year only three limited releases have topped $10 million (The Grand Budapest Hotel, Chef, and very recently Belle). Does the film work as an art house film? Will it please more mainstream audiences?
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June 30th, 2014
It is a terrible week on the home market. The biggest new release according to Amazon.com is Legend of Korra: Book Two, Spirits, which is coming out on DVD and DVD or Blu-ray. However, according to the people sending me a screener, it doesn't come out till the first week of August. The best release on this week's list is The Grand Budapest Hotel, but it came out last month and the Blu-ray arrived late. The best new release on this week's list, that I know is coming out this week, is The Lunchbox and the Blu-ray Combo Pack is the Pick of the Week.
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June 28th, 2014
The Grand Budapest Hotel is the latest film from auteur director, Wes Anderson, and it is also his biggest box office hit. I liked some of his earlier films, but after The Life Aquatic and The Darjeeling Limited, I didn't consider myself a fan of his work. Then I saw The Fantastic Mr. Fox and Moonrise Kingdom and I loved both. Because of this, I was super excited to see The Grand Budapest Hotel and its box office success caused my expectations to rise even more. Did they rise too high? Is this Wes Anderson's best movie, as well as his biggest hit?
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June 17th, 2014
It's a good week / bad week on the home market. There are several releases coming out this week that are absolutely worth picking up. But there are also several of these where I'm still waiting for screeners to arrive, some of which are contenders for Pick of the Week, like The Grand Budapest Hotel or House of Cards. Other potential Pick of the Week contenders include Ernest and Celestine on Blu-ray Combo Pack and The LEGO Movie on Blu-ray Combo Pack. It was literally a coin toss and Ernest and Celestine won. Meanwhile, No Clue on DVD wins the Puck of the Week, for the best Canadian release of the week.
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May 20th, 2014
Godzilla led the way on both the overall box office chart and the per theater box office chart, earning an average of $23,580 in nearly 4,000 theaters. The second best film on the per theater chart was The Immigrant with an average of $14,688 in three theaters. Chinese Puzzle was the final film in the $10,000 club with an average of $11,772 in two theaters.
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May 7th, 2014
Belle led the way on the per theater chart with an opening of just over $100,000 in four theaters for an average of $26,645. Meanwhile, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 was relatively close behind with an average of $21,186 in more than 4,000 theaters. The only other film in the $10,000 club on the per theater chart was Ida, which made $55,000 in 3 theaters for an average of $18,479.
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May 4th, 2014
The modern tradition is that first weekend in May starts the Summer season with a super-hero action movie. And Hollywood being the industry that lets no tradition go before it's beaten it to death, this year we start Summer, on the first weekend in May, with the release of The Amazing Spider-Man 2. Now, the most amazing fact about the Spider-Man franchise is probably that every movie has done worse at the domestic box office than the one before it, even without adjusting for inflation. This is another tradition that looks like it might continue, with Spider-Man 2 opening with $92 million—without doubt a very good debut, but one that points towards a final box office around $250 million, or perhaps a shade higher. With The Amazing Spider-Man having made $262 million in 2012, a fourth straight decline for the franchise looks like a 50-50 bet right now.
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April 30th, 2014
It was not a good week on the per theater chart, as only one film topped the $10,000 mark. That film was Locke, which earned an average of $20,252 in four theaters.
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April 23rd, 2014
Fading Gigolo debuted on top of the per theater chart with an average of $36,160 in five theaters. This is the second best per theater average for a 2014 release behind The Grand Budapest Hotel. Granted, it was well behind that film, but still in second place. Also, given the film's reviews, it won't last very long at the box office. The only other film to reach the $10,000 club was Godzilla: The Original Japanese Version, which celebrated its 60th anniversary with $10,903 in one theater.
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April 17th, 2014
Rio 2 raced to first place with $63.5 million on 20,008 screens in 65 markets for a total of $125.6 million after four weeks of release. This includes a first place debut in Mexico, where it earned $8.42 million on 2,627 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $8.97 million. This is about $3 million more than the first film's debut there. It also earned first place in Australia with $2.09 million on 278 screens, although this is weaker than its predecessor. It is still too soon to tell where it will finish internationally, as it has been doing better in some markets, but worse in others, when compared to Rio. That said, I think the studio should be happy overall.
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April 9th, 2014
Captain America: The Winter Soldier remained in first place on the international chart with $109.8 million in 50 markets for a two week total of $209.4 million internationally and $304.4 million worldwide. The Winter Soldier is already ahead of the first Captain America internationally, and by this time next week, it will have $500 million worldwide, about 30% more than its predecessor's final figure. This week, the film opened in first place in a trio of major markets, led by China where it earned $36.23 million, which is just over $20 million more than the first film finished with in that market. Russia was next with an opening of $7.79 million on 1,685, or $1 million lower than the first film's final tally there. Finally there was Australia, where the film opened with $5.91 million, which is about 20% more than its predecessor opened with. As far as holdovers go, the film added $4.64 million in the U.K. for a total of $18.31 million there, which is already ahead of the first film's total.
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April 8th, 2014
Under the Skin opened surprisingly well with a per theater average of $33,289 in four theaters. This is the second best opening per theater average for any film released in 2014, well back of The Grand Budapest Hotel's record-breaking debut. The only other film in the $10,000 club was the overall box office leader, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, which earned an average of $24,130 in nearly 4,000 theaters.
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April 7th, 2014
So the first weekend of April was amazing. Not only did Game of Thrones set a series record for ratings (and the best for HBO since The Sopranos) but Captain America: The Winter Soldier set the April opening weekend of all time. Its opening was on the high end of expectations, which is great news, and this strength helped the overall box office grow by 19% from last weekend to $167 million. This is also 24% more than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2014 now has $2.55 billion, which is 7% more than 2013's running tally of $2.38 billion.
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April 3rd, 2014
It is the first weekend in April, which means one thing... Game of Thrones returns! Also, Captain America: The Winter Soldier opens domestically. The film already opened internationally and was a much bigger hit than its predecessor was in the markets it debuted in, which bodes well for its opening here. On the other hand, it scared away all other films and there's no competition opening in wide release and it could take a real bite out of the holdovers. That said, this weekend last year, the biggest hit of the weekend was Evil Dead, which only made $25.78 million and The Winter Soldier could earn four times that over the weekend.
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April 3rd, 2014
Captain America: The Winter Soldier started its international run a week earlier than its domestic run and it started out really well. It earned first place with $75.2 million in 32 markets. This includes a number of major markets, led by the U.K. with $10.05 million on 535 screens. By comparison, the first Captain America made $14.75 million in the U.K., in total, including a $4.90 million start. It also cracked $10 million in South Korea with $8.89 million on 1,268 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $10.99 million. The first film made $3.81 million in South Korea in total. The Winter Soldier also opened in Mexico, earning $8.60 million on 2,681, which was a little bit above its predecessor opening. It is too soon to tell if it will reach $20 million, like The First Avenger did. The first film made $10.28 million in France in total, while this film opened with $6.06 million on 664 screens. In Germany, the film only managed $3.66 million on 626 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.99 million, compared to $4.81 million the original made in total. It had a near identical opening in Italy with $3.60 million on 648 screens over the weekend, for a total opening of $4.06 million. This is close to half of the $8.60 million the first film made in total in that market. On the other hand, the film had to settle for second place in Spain with $2.93 million in 709 screens, which is just a little bit more than the $2.54 million the original opened with. As you can tell, The Winter Soldier topped The First Avenger's opening in every major market. It topped its predecessor's total in one major market. This is an amazing start and with several major markets left ahead of it, an international total of $300 million is a reasonable goal.
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April 1st, 2014
It was a close race, but The Raid 2 took top spot on the per theater chart with an average of $23,613 in seven theaters. Finding Vivian Maier was right behind with an average of $21,200 in three theaters. The overall number one film, Noah, was the only other film in the $10,000 club, earning an average of $12,257.
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April 1st, 2014
March is over and it ended on a bit of a down note. Noah topped expectations, but not every film managed to do the same. For instance, Sabotage barely avoided the Mendoza Line. Overall the box office was down less than $1 million, or 0.7%, when compared to last weekend. Compared to last year, the box office was down 5%, which isn't great, but given how strong 2014 has been, it is hardly a reason to panic. In fact, year-to-date, 2014 has a 6% lead over 2013 at $2.35 billion to $2.22 billion.
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March 27th, 2014
The final weekend in March is a busy one with two wide releases, possibly two wide expansions, and a semi-wide release that could reach the top ten. Noah is the wider of the two wide releases and should have little trouble earning first place over the weekend. On the other hand, there is a chance Sabotage won't reach the top five. Both Bad Words and The Grand Budapest Hotel are expanding wide, or widish. The Grand Budapest Hotel should pop into the top five, but not everyone thinks Bad Words will reach the top ten. Finally, Cesar Chavez is opening in more than 600 theaters and there is a chance it will reach the top ten. This weekend last year was led by G.I. Joe: Retaliation with just over $40 million. Noah could get there, but even if it does, I don't think the other films will hold their end of the bargain and 2014 will finally lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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March 26th, 2014
Need for Speed remained in first place on the international chart with $29.2 million in 55 markets for a two-week total of $96.1 million. This includes $10.5 million over the weekend in China, and $24.22 million for the full week. After two weeks of release, the film has $45.54 million in that one market. The film opened in first place in Germany with $2.91 million on 455 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.06 million. The film opens in Spain and France, among other markets, in April, while by the time it debuts in Japan, it might have covered its production budget internationally.
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March 25th, 2014
The Grand Budapest Hotel expanded once again, but still managed to lead the way on the per theater chart with an average of $22,329 in 304 theaters. The overall number one film, Divergent, was in second place on the per theater chart with an average of $13,874. Rob the Mob was right behind with $13,833 in its lone theater. Jodorowsky's Dune opened in three theaters earning an average of $12,006. God's Not Dead was the big surprise of the weekend with an average of $11,852 in 780 theaters.
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March 25th, 2014
This weekend, there were two new wide releases at the box office. One was a big hit and the other struggled. Also, one was a hit with critics and one was not. Sadly, the critical miss was a box office hit with Divergent earning more than $50 million while Muppets Most Wanted failed to reach $20 million. Overall, the total box office this weekend was $141 million, which is 24% more than last weekend. It is also more than the same weekend last year, but by less than 2%. Year-to-date, 2014 is 8% ahead of 2013 at $2.16 billion to $2.01 billion.
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March 23rd, 2014
Once more, the Summit division of Lionsgate is showing the rest of the industry how to successfully bring a Young Adult novel to the screen, with Divergent delivering an impressive $56 million on its opening weekend. While that's a long, long way short of the $152.5 million posted by The Hunger Games on its debut, it is in the same ballpark as the $69.6 million enjoyed by Twilight when it came out in 2008, in spite of being from a book with a smaller fanbase. It's also the second-biggest weekend of the year so far after The LEGO Movie, and bodes well for an impressive final tally, and sequels to come.
But that's not the only piece of good news on a weekend where the theme is diversity.
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March 20th, 2014
Need for Speed performed a lot better internationally than it did domestically earning first place with $45.6 million in 40 markets. Unfortunately, $21.09 million was earned during its opening weekend in China. I say unfortunately, because studios only get about 20% of the box office haul in that market, compared to 40% in most other international markets and 60% domestically. It also earned first place in Russia with $5.84 million on 1,050 screens and in the U.K., with $3.35 million on 469. The surprise result came in Malaysia where it earned $1.89 million on 184 screens. On the other hand, the film had a trio of third place debuts in Australia ($1.38 million on 457 screens); Brazil ($1.29 on 335); and Italy ($1.07 million on 426). The film opens in Germany this weekend, while it doesn't open in Japan till June. It likely topped its production budget worldwide by Monday, so as long as its legs are not really short, it should break even sometime on the home market.
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March 19th, 2014
Despite expanding from 4 to 66 theaters, The Grand Budapest Hotel held on well enough to lead the per theater chart with ease. In fact, its average of $55,122 was the second best per theater average for the year, behind only its opening weekend. Bad Words came in second place with an average of $18,884 in six theaters. This is a good opening, but not one that suggests it could naturally expand wide. Fortunately, the film already has a wide release scheduled and as the ad campaign for the wide release ramps up, it should at least become a midlevel hit when compared to its production budget. Enemy was right behind with an estimated $18,000 in its lone theater. Le Week-End was the final film in the $10,000 club as it earned an average of $14,536 in three theaters during its opening weekend of release.
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March 18th, 2014
The weekend box office didn't shake out as expected with the new films failing to live up to the low end of predictions. Need for Speed didn't earn first place, in fact, it only managed third place. Tyler Perry's Single Mothers Club barely managed fifth place and was the worst opening for Tyler Perry in his directing career. On the positive side, Mr. Peabody and Sherman held on better than expected allowing it to rise to first place. The overall box office sank compared to last weekend, down 21% to $114 million. This is still above last year's box office total by 6%. Year-to-date, 2014 has pulled in almost $2.00 billion, which is 11% ahead of 2013's pace.
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March 16th, 2014
An over-abundance of action movies this weekend split the market for moviegoers looking for such entertainment, allowing the animated family adventure Mr. Peabody and Sherman to sneak in and win the weekend. Peabody will be down a decent 34% from last weekend at $21.2 million, according to Fox, and will hit $63 million by the end of the weekend. Its legs will take it past 300: Rise of an Empire, which will be down 58% to $19.1 million for the weekend, and $78.4 million after two. Both films will top new release Need for Speed. Disney's debutant will post around $17.8 million for the weekend, a number undoubtedly squeezed by competition with 300 and Non-Stop, which will post $10.6 million in its third weekend, for $68.8 million in total.
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March 13th, 2014
300: Rise of an Empire dominated the international box office earning first place with $87.8 million on 14,478 screens in 58 markets during its opening weekend of release. The film earned first place in Russia with $8.43 million on 1,441 screens. It only managed second place in France, but with a still strong $6.08 million on 454 screens. It also had a string of first place finishes in a number of other major markets, including South Korea where it made $5.49 million on 720 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $6.42 million. Brazil was next with an opening of $5.64 million on 869 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.92 million, while Mexico was close behind with $5.47 million on 2,048. Germany took in $4.75 million on 580 screens over the weekend for a very healthy debut of $5.23 million. The U.K. earned a similar result with $4.62 million on 487, but that is one of the weaker results given the size of the market. Other major markets include Spain ($3.69 million on 710 screens); Italy ($3.33 million on 580); and Australia ($2.91 million on 467). The film has yet to open in China and Japan, but given its start in these markets, it hardly matters how well in does in those.
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March 12th, 2014
The Grand Budapest Hotel led the way on the per theater chart with an average of $202,792 in four theaters. This is the best per theater average this year and the best per theater average since Frozen's debut last year. It is also the best per theater average for a live action film of all time, beating The Master's old record of $147,262 in five theaters set in 2012. The film will clearly expand wide enough to earn a significant measure of mainstream success, if it doesn't expand truly wide. Particle Fever was next with an average of $14,323 in three theaters over the weekend, while its total since Wednesday is $49,869. The only wide release to top $10,000 on the per theater chart was 300: Rise of an Empire, which earned an average of $13,006. Interior. Leather Bar. was a surprise entrant in the $10,000 club earning $10,902 in one theater.
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March 9th, 2014
Two movies with very different audiences top this weekend's box office chart, according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning, but the really eye-popping numbers are to be found lower down the rankings. 300: Rise of an Empire leads the charge with a very solid $45 million or so from 3,470 theaters. While that's a long way behind the $70.9 million earned by 300 on its opening weekend, it's an impressive showing for a film that hasn't been earning particularly strong reviews and doesn't share much of the cast, nor the director, from the original movie. In second place, Mr. Peabody & Sherman will land at around $32.5 million for Fox. Playing in 3,934 theaters, the family animated adventure will have a decent $8,361 theater average, and its legs over the next few weeks will be closely watched -- it'll need them for any chance of a sequel.
The main story for the weekend, however, lies lower in the chart.
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March 7th, 2014
This week the list of limited releases includes The Grand Budapest Hotel, which is earning amazing buzz and arguably better reviews. It will likely dominate the per theater chart so much so that the rest of the films might suffer as as result. This would be too bad, because there are several other films that deserve to find an audience. Grand Piano and In Fear are both earning great reviews, but as horror films playing on Video on Demand, their box office numbers will be nothing more than an afterthought. There are also a couple of comedies I'm interested in seeing, Journey To The West and No Clue, although the latter is only playing in Canada.
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March 1st, 2014
2014 continued its strong run in February with The Lego Movie beating even the high end expectations and will become the first film released in 2014 to reach $200 million. March doesn't look as strong, as no film is on track to hit $200 million, but there are five films that have a chance at $100 million. Granted, not all of them will get there; in fact, there's a chance only one of them will get there. Divergent is the film I think has the best shot at the century club, but it could be joined by Mr. Peabody and Sherman, for instance, which is earning surprisingly strong reviews. Noah is a big-budget Bible epic and the studio has to be hoping for at least $100 million, but the buzz is quite negative and there have been reports of troubles behind-the-scenes. Last March was led by Oz The Great and Powerful, which pulled in more than $200 million domestically. I don't think any film opening this March will match that figure. In addition, The Croods and G.I. Joe: Retaliation also hit the $100 million milestone, while Olympus Has Fallen came very close. Granted, there were also some big bombs last March, like The Host, but even so, I think 2014 will lose ground in the year-over-year comparison.
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