January preview: 2021 starts with the quietest month since July
January 5, 2021
There’s precious little good news in the theatrical market as we start 2021. Although Wonder Woman 1984 had a relatively good opening weekend after its launch on Christmas Day, it declined steeply at the box office last weekend, and the combined earnings for all films reporting is only a shade over $10 million right now. Unfortunately, there are only two films scheduled to open wide in the whole month of January, which means we won’t see much of an improvement in the market, and likely some back sliding, particularly given the growing COVID-19 case counts and the high likelihood of continued restrictions on public gatherings around North America.
The (slow) rollout of a vaccine is the one piece of good news, but it’s unlikely to have much of an effect on the things for several months. For now, here’s what’s in store for January…
The plot: Along the US/Mexico border in Arizona, Jim Hanson a rancher and Vietnam war vet, is going through a tough time. His beloved wife just passed away from cancer and the bank is about to foreclose on his vast property. His quiet life is suddenly disturbed by the unexpected arrival of two illegal immigrants crossing the border onto his land―a mother and her young son, who are desperately fleeing a brutal Mexican cartel.
Our analysis: This is the second Liam Neeson thriller released during the pandemic. Honest Thief has earned $14 million since its release in October, and this film looks like it shares enough of the same DNA to do similar business. The wildcard is the state of the market as a whole, which our model thinks is weaker than in October. The shifts our prediction downwards, with $10 million a reasonable target for this release.
The plot: Kern County Deputy Sheriff Joe “Deke” Deacon is sent to Los Angeles for what should have been a quick evidence-gathering assignment. Instead, he becomes embroiled in the search for a killer who is terrorizing the city. Leading the hunt, L.A. Sheriff Department Sergeant Jim Baxter, impressed with Deke’s cop instincts, unofficially engages his help. But as they track the killer, Baxter is unaware that the investigation is dredging up echoes of Deke’s past, uncovering disturbing secrets that could threaten more than his case.
Our analysis: The combination of Denzel Washington, Rami Malek and Jared Leto looks great on paper, and our model thinks this would be a $100 million movie under normal circumstances. But, well, you know. With the market at about 12% of its usual strength, a total for this film of $12 million would be par for the course.
Weekend of January 15th, 2021
The Marksman
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Distributor: Open Road
Release Date: January 15th, 2021
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for violence, some bloody images and brief strong language.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Action
Keywords:
Action Thriller, Texas, Border Town, Fugitive / On the Run, Drug Cartels, Life on a Farm, Road Trip
Directed By: Robert Lorenz
Written By: Robert Lorenz, Chris Charles, Danny Kravitz
Starring: Liam Neeson
Predicted Box Office: $10 million
Weekend of January 29th, 2021
The Little Things
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: January 29th, 2021
MPAA Rating: R for violent/disturbing images, language and full nudity.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords:
Serial Killer
Directed By: John Lee Hancock
Written By: John Lee Hancock
Starring: Denzel Washington, Rami Malek, Jared Leto
Predicted Box Office: $12 million
Filed under: Monthly Preview, The Little Things, The Marksman, Liam Neeson, Denzel Washington, Jared Leto, Rami Malek, Robert Lorenz, John Lee Hancock, Chris Charles, Danny Kravitz