February 24th, 2019
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It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. We will announce the winners and have our reactions as they happen, while keeping track of how our readers did in predicting the outcomes.
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February 24th, 2019
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It’s Oscar Day, and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. in Italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between. For example, I would be happy with half of the Best Picture nominees winning.
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January 24th, 2019
We’re getting close to the monster hits from fall finally coming out on the home market. Closer, but we are not quite there yet. This week’s biggest release is First Man, but it is not the best. The race for Pick of the Week came down to three contenders: Dirty Rotten Scoundrels, The Hate U Give, and JoJo’s Bizarre Adventure: Set Three. It was a close race, but in the end The Hate U Give won out.
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January 23rd, 2019
The Oscar nominations were announced yesterday starting at just after 5 am Pacific time. They do this every year for reasons no one has been able to adequately explain to me. Because it was the day after a long weekend, it took a bit of time to get all the normal work done and digest the results. And there were some interesting results to digest. No one film led the way with total nominations, as two films, The Favourite and Roma tied with 10 nominations each.
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January 20th, 2019
First Man was made to win Oscars. I don’t think there are many people out there that would deny that. I don’t know if it is going to succeed in that goal, but it did struggle in theaters, earning barely more than $100 million worldwide. Is the film too much “Oscar-bait” to win over audiences? Or is it an unfairly overlooked gem?
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January 12th, 2019
The BAFTA nominations were announced and The Favorite led the way with 12 nominations. Sometimes the BAFTAs are a really good indicator for who will do well on Oscar night. Other times their bias to British films is too much. I think this year will be an example of the latter and I don't think The Favourite is suddenly an Oscar favorite. That said, there’s still some things you can learn here.
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January 7th, 2019
The Golden Globes were the first major Awards Season ceremony this year handing out the hardware on Sunday night. Are last night’s events a strong indicator for the Oscars? I hope not! Certainly not in all categories, as there were some puzzling results last night.
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December 6th, 2018
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The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. It is still very early in the year and the predictive value of the Golden Globes is a little suspect, but there are still some things to learn here. For example Vice led the way with six nominations, so its Oscar chances have gone up, but don’t expect it to lead the way when the Oscars nominations are announced.
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October 23rd, 2018
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Halloween opened on the high end of expectations earning $76.22 million during its opening weekend. This tops The Nun’s previous best opening for a horror film released this year of $53.81 million. Both The Hate U Give and The Old Man and the Gun expanded into the top ten, which also helped the overall box office a little but. Speaking of the overall box office, it rose 21% from last weekend, hitting $165 million. More impressively, this was 72% higher than the same weekend last year. Normally, a year-over-year change this dramatic only happens when there is a misalignment in holidays, but this has been happening a lot this year. Year-to-date, 2018’s lead over 2017 climbed to $960 million or 11.3% at $9.39 billion to $8.44 billion. There’s no way this lead will remain this high at the end of the year, but it would take a serious collapse for 2018 to not finish with a higher total box office than 2017.
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October 21st, 2018
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According to Universal’s numbers, Halloween is going to debut with $77.75 million over the weekend. This is by far the biggest opening in the franchise; in fact, it is the biggest worldwide hit in the franchise after just three days at the domestic box office. Its reviews are 80% positive, while it earned a B plus from CinemaScore, and both of those suggest better-than-average legs, for a horror film. Plus, with actual Halloween just 10 days away, it could hold better next weekend than it otherwise would. I don’t expect it to get to $200 million domestically, but it will become Universal’s second-biggest hit of 2018, at least so far. Internationally, the film looks to pull in $14.3 million in 23 markets. It wasn’t able to match its opening here in any major market, which isn’t surprising given its start here. It will come the closest in Mexico, as it is estimated to make $4.99 million over the weekend. It only managed second place in the U.K. with a projected $3.61 million over the weekend, which is equivalent to a $20 million opening here.
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October 20th, 2018
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Before the weekend began, people were asking if Halloween would top The Nun for biggest opening weekend for a horror film released this year. After Friday, no one is asking that question anymore, because the answer is obviously going to be yes. The film pulled in $33.34 million during its opening day, meaning it is within striking distance of Venom’s record for biggest October weekend. Venom earned $32.50 million during its opening day. Additionally, Halloween has 81% positive reviews and a B plus from CinemaScore, which is great for a horror film. On the other hand, horror films do tend to have shorter legs than comic book movies, so Halloween is essentially a coin-toss to break the record. Universal is going with $80.3 million, so we likely won’t know the answer until Monday when the final numbers show up.
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October 18th, 2018
Right now, The Nun has the best opening for a horror film released this year with $53.81 million during its opening weekend. Most people think Halloween will top this, while some think it will crush this number. In fact, high end predictions have this film earning more than the top ten earned this weekend last year. It would need more than $75 million to get there, albeit not that much more to do so. That’s still asking a lot. The only other “new release” of the week is The Hate U Give, which is indeed expanding truly wide. However, it is unlikely to hit the top five. This weekend last year, Tyler Perry’s Boo 2 earned first place with $21.23 million, while Geostorm was the only other film to earn more than $10 million. Halloween should earn more than $21.23 million during its opening day and there could be as many as five films earning $10 million or more. Even if there is as few as three $10 million films, 2018 will still easily top last year’s box office number giving the year yet another win in the year-over-year comparison.
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October 16th, 2018
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Last weekend, Venom and A Star is Born opened better than predicted by a large margin and they even held on better than expected this weekend. Unfortunately, none of the new releases matched predictions and that hurt the overall box office. The total box office was down 25% from last weekend at $136 million. More importantly, this is 36% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 is ahead of 2017 at $9.18 billion to $8.31 billion, which is a $880 million or 10.5% lead. A double-digit lead at this point of the year is stunning and while it very likely won’t last, it would take an complete collapse for the lead to evaporate by the end of the year.
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October 14th, 2018
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Last weekend, the new releases topped expectations by a significant degree. It appears I got caught up in that enthusiasm, because the three wide releases this weekend all missed expectations. Fortunately, the holdovers helped compensate. Venom is projected to fall just 56% to $35.6 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $142.6 million. This is a stunningly strong hold, given its reviews, its B plus from CinemaScore, and historical averages for comic book films. Internationally, it pulled in $69.7 million and globally it already has $378.1 million. The film cost $100 million or $116 million, depending on how you look at things. It’s $116 million on the screen, but it cost Sony $100 million after tax breaks. Depending on how much the film cost to advertise and how much Sony’s share of the box office is, the film might have already broken even. It will certainly break even by this time next week.
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October 13th, 2018
All of the new releases missed expectations on Friday. This combined with better than expected holds for the holdovers meant there won’t be any new challengers for first place. That said, there will be a relatively close race for first place between Venom and A Star is Born. Venom fell 70% compared to its opening Friday earning $9.79 million. This is enough to put it on pace for $32 million during its sophomore stint, which is on the very high end of expectations.
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October 12th, 2018
First Man led the way with $1.1 million during its previews last night. There are not many films we can use as comparisons. The Martian cost a whole lot more and had much more buzz, so it is not surprising it did better with $2.5 million in its previews. If the two films have the same legs, then First Man will open with about $24 million, giving it a solid third place. Its reviews slipped just below the 90% positive level, but that’s hardly reason to panic about its box office chances. I think my prediction might have been a little too bullish, but we will have to wait till tomorrow to have a clearer picture.
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October 11th, 2018
There are three wide releases coming out this week. First Man is the biggest release and has the best reviews with 90% positive reviews. Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween’s reviews are much, much worse, but it should still do relatively well at the box office. It is a horror movie for kids opening just before Halloween. The final wide release of the week is Bad Times at the El Royale, which is earning really good reviews, but the buzz is rather quiet. These films will have to compete with Venom and A Star is Born, both of which are expected to do big business during their second weekend of release. This weekend last year, Happy Death Day opened with $26.04 million; however, it was the only film that earned more than $20 million over the weekend. This year, we could have as many as four films earn more than $20 million.
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October 1st, 2018
September turned out to be a solid month. The Nun beat expectations to become a $100 million hit, while there were also several midlevel hits in the mix. Granted, it lost ground when compared to last September, but last September broke records, and this September held on better than expected. Hopefully this means October will be able to continue 2018’s winning ways. There are several potential $100 million hits, starting with Venom and A Star is Born, which open the first weekend. Meanwhile, both First Man and Halloween could break the century mark later in the month. By comparison, last October, no movie topped $100 million, with Blade Runner 2049 coming the closest. 2018 should extend its lead over 2017 during the full month, potentially by a significant margin.
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June 11th, 2018
Real-life drama starring Ryan Gosling and Claire Foy opens October 12 ... Full Movie Details.
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