Weekend Predictions: Can Venom Take Down October’s Record?

October 4, 2018

Venom

The first weekend of October could see records fall, as most have Venom opening with between $60 million and $70 million. The movie with the line “Turd in the wind” in its trailer is expected to open better than Gravity did. On the other hand, A Star is Born is expected to open in second place, but have much, much longer legs and I believe it will be the bigger hit in the end. Both Night School and Smallfoot will earn more than $10 million over the weekend, which will help the overall box office performance. This weekend last year, Blade Runner 2049 opened with $32.75 million, while only one other film earned more than $10 million. Even on the low end, Venom will earn more than those two films combined. On the high end, it could match last year’s top five by itself.

Venom is the latest super hero movie to come out this year, but while it is based on a Marvel Comic, it is not part of the MCU, although Sony clearly wishes it were. Its reviews are much worse than even the weakest installment in the MCU, but strangely, its box office chances are not that much worse than Ant-Man and the Wasp's were, at least for its opening weekend. Tracking has the film opening between $55 million and $75 million. Even the low end of expectations has it breaking the October weekend record. I really think the lower end is much more likely than the higher end and I’m predicting $57 million. Maybe I’m being overly pessimistic, but even this seems too much given its reviews and negative buzz.

A Star is Born is Bradley Cooper’s attempt to finally win an Oscar. He’s been nominated four times, three for acting, but gone home empty handed each time. Here, he co-wrote, directed, and stars as an aging rock star who discovers a next-level talent, played by Lady Gaga. He helps her get a start in the industry, but then realizes his destructive behavior is holding her back. The reviews are award-worthy and the buzz is substantial as a result. It likely won’t have a monster start, but its legs could be incredible. Tracking has the film earning between $30 million and $40 million over the weekend, but I think this one will be a surprise hit with $42 million during its debut, but really long legs will put it past $150 million domestically.

Both Night School and Smallfoot should earn between $13 million and $14 million. The former had the advantage last weekend, but I think the latter will win out this weekend. Smallfoot is a family film and there’s no direct competition at the box office this weekend. Plus, its reviews are substantially better than Night School’s reviews are. That said, Night School could take third place on Friday before falling to fourth place on Saturday. It should be a very close race.

The House with a Clock in its Walls should earn between $6 million and $7 million over the weekend giving it fifth place. It has already earned more than it cost to make, while its international numbers are not as potent, it should still make enough worldwide to break even early in its home market run.

- Venom Comparisons
- A Star is Born Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Venom, Smallfoot, A Star is Born, Night School, The House with a Clock in its Walls, Marvel Cinematic Universe, Bradley Cooper, Lady Gaga