Weekend Estimates: Night School earns a Passing Grade with $28 million
September 30, 2018
The weekend box office lived up to expectations, for the most part. Night School is projected to earn $28 million over the weekend, which almost matches its $29 million production budget. It would take tiny legs to fail to cover its production budget, which is unlikely. Granted, its reviews are only 31% positive, but it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, so its target audience liked it a whole lot more than the critics did. Its international start wasn’t great at $5.5 million in 19 markets, but within expectations. It earned second place in the U.K. with $2.02 million in 452 theaters, as well as third place in Australia with $1.20 million on 198.
Smallfoot is projected to earn $23.02 million during its opening weekend, which is within a rounding error of our prediction. Its reviews slipped to 69% positive, which is still good, but far from great. Meanwhile, its CinemaScore is an A minus, which is acceptable for a family film. Internationally, the film earned $14 million in 49 markets over the weekend for an early total of $15.6 million. This includes a first place, $3.6 million on 2,551 screens start in Mexico. It added $1.4 million on 312 screens in Australia for a two-week total of $3.1 million in that market.
If projections are correct, then The House with a Clock in its Walls will fall 53% this weekend, which is really fast for a family film. It will still earn $12.51 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $44.76 million, which is more than it cost to make. Its B plus from CinemaScore and the direct competition seems to have hurt more than we anticipated.
A Simple Favor should earn $6.6 million over the weekend, which matches our prediction. Its running tally will rise to $43.1 million, while it is on pace to hit $60 million domestically.
It looks like The Nun will manage one more week in the top five with $5.44 million over the weekend for a total of $109.02 million after four weeks of release. It is now the second biggest installment in the franchise.
Hell Fest will come within a rounding error of our prediction with $5.08 million. This isn’t a great start, but it isn’t that far away from its $5.5 million production. Weak reviews and a C from CinemaScore will hurt its legs, but it could break even, if it becomes a hit on the home market.
Free Solo was the best limited release of the week earning $300,000 in four theaters. Its theater average was the best of the year topping Eighth Grade’s previous record and it even topped An Inconvenient Truth for best theater average for a documentary. It wasn’t the only potent new limited release either, as The Old Man and the Gun and Matangi/Maya/M.I.A. both opened in the $10,000 club with averages of $30,000 and $25,687 respectively.
- Night School Comparisons
- Smallfoot Comparisons
- Hell Fest Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Smallfoot, The Old Man and the Gun, The Nun, Night School, Hell Fest, The House with a Clock in its Walls, A Simple Favor, Eighth Grade, Free Solo, Matangi/Maya/M.I.A., The Conjuring