January 17th, 2015
The Oscar nominations were announced early in the morning, when all sensible people were asleep. There were some surprises, as well as some results that would have been surprises had it not been for the previous Awards Season nominations. Seventeen films earned two or more nods, led by Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel, both of which picked up nine nominations, while The Imitation Game was right behind with eight.
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November 26th, 2014
This Thursday is Thanksgiving, which means this is Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and a ton of shopping. It also means the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. Over the next month, we will talk about TV on DVD releases, independent releases, foreign language releases, classics, etc. but this week we start with Major Movie Releases. These are first run releases, franchise box sets, etc. In some ways, this is better than last year, as there were a wider number of big releases that would make great gifts. However, in other ways it is much weaker. I can't think of a single big franchise box set that came out this year. There are some smaller ones, like the Halloween Box Set, but while the franchise has lasted ten installments and 30 years, how many can you really say are worth repeated viewing? Fortunately, there were plenty of great films to come out this year, starting with what is currently the biggest hit of the year.
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October 26th, 2014
Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. was a risky show to make, for a couple of reasons. Mostly it was risky because of the public's perception of what a super hero show should be like. When the public's expectations are not met, they tend to react negatively, even if the movie / TV show is good. For example, Drive was sold as an high-octane action film, but it was a slow burning drama. The critics loved it, but a lot of people attacked the movie for not living up to expectations. A little closer to home, The Tick was a live action TV series that could be described as, "Seinfeld, but the four main characters are super heroes." This is a great idea and I loved the show. However, a lot of people were disappointed as it wasn't a super hero action movie. Of course it's not a super hero action movie. You can't make a super hero action movie on a TV budget. Even today, you can't make a super hero action movie on a TV budget. Unfortunately, a lot of people were expecting Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. to be just that, so while the ratings were huge the first night, they quickly dropped off. Were those who stuck with the show rewarded? Should those who stopped watching start again?
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September 9th, 2014
The Christmas shopping season has begun in full force. Even if Captain America: The Winter Soldier were the only new release this week, it would be a great release, as the Combo Packs are clearly pick of the week contenders. It's not the only Pick of the Week contender. Agents Of S.H.I.E.L.D.: Season 1 is also a prime contender, although I'm still waiting for the screener for that release. At the moment, I'm giving the win to Captain America: The Winter Soldier, but when I get a chance to review the screener, that might change.
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September 6th, 2014
Captain America: The Winter Soldier was the latest in an unending string of hits for Marvel Studios. It was for quite a while the biggest hit of the year, but was recently overtaken by Guardians of the Galaxy. Is this film worth checking out for those who have enjoyed the previous Avengers films? And if you've never seen any of the previous Avengers films, is this a good place to start?
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June 30th, 2014
As expected, Transformers: Age of Extinction easily won the race for the top of the box office chart and became the first film released in 2014 to earn more than $100 million during its opening weekend. Granted, it barely made it, but we will take it. This helped the overall box office climb by 20% to $190 million over the weekend. Unfortunately, this was still 8% lower than the same weekend last year when Monsters University repeated at the box office champion. Year-to-date, 2014 has pulled in $5.11 billion, which is 0.3% below 2013's pace of $5.13 billion. This is still close enough that we shouldn't panic, but the trajectory is going in the wrong direction.
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June 17th, 2014
How to Train Your Dragon 2 missed lofty expectations and that allowed 22 Jump Street to earn first place. Both films opened well and their respective studios should be happy, while the overall box office rose by 15% compared to last weekend hitting $187 million. Unfortunately, this is still 8% lower than this weekend last year. Had How to Train Your Dragon 2 matched higher expectations, 2014 would have won on the year-over-year comparison. Year-to-date, 2014 has earned $4.64 billion, putting it 3.0% ahead of 2013's pace of $4.50 billion, so this weekend's loss isn't a big deal.
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June 9th, 2014
As expected, The Fault in Our Stars won the box office race this past weekend, while its opening weekend was on the very high end of expectations. (It did so with a surprisingly strong opening Friday, but more on that later.) The other wide release of the week, Edge of Tomorrow, did about as well as expected, which is to say it really struggled compared to its production budget. Overall, the box took in $163 million, which is 2% lower than last weekend. On the other hand, it is 9% higher than the same weekend last year, which is the far more important number. Year-to-date, 2014 has pulled in $4.38 billion, putting it 3.3% ahead of last year's pace of $4.24 billion. This is still a good margin and hopefully it will last.
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June 2nd, 2014
It was a mostly good weekend at the box office with Maleficent earning first place with nearly $70 million, which was on the very high end of expectations. On the other hand, A Million Ways to Die in the West failed to match the low end of expectations. Overall, the box office pulled in $165 million, which is 11% lower than last weekend. That's not bad for a post-holiday weekend. Compared to last year, the box office was higher, albeit by 0.6%, which is much lower than ticket price inflation. Considering I thought it would be worse than this, I'm calling a 0.6% increase a victory. Year-to-date, 2014 remains ahead of 2013, but by $133 million or 3.3% at $4.16 billion to $4.02 billion. If June is as bad as May, then 2014 could slip behind 2013 entirely.
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June 1st, 2014
Disney’s $180 million gamble on Maleficent looks to have paid off this weekend, with Angelina Jolie’s starring role carrying the film to a $70 million opening weekend, in spite of middling reviews. The film is as much a triumph for Jolie as World War Z was for husband Brad Pitt. They truly are Hollywood’s power couple.
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May 25th, 2014
Another weekend, another $90 million opener. This time, there’s an asterisk at least, because X-Men: Days of Future Past will “open” with $110 million, thanks to the four day Memorial Day long weekend, giving Fox an arguable claim to the biggest weekend of the year, and the first $100 million debut. The reality, however, is that it will line up in fourth place when comparing 3-day weekends, with Captain America still out in front, thanks to its $95 million opening back in April. May has seen the three other $90 million-plus weekends, with Godzilla second ($93 million) and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 third ($91.6 million).
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May 20th, 2014
I thought Godzilla would be a monster hit. I mentioned that possibility in the monthly preview and the weekend predictions. However, I was in the minority and I reduced my expectations. That turns out to be a mistake. Godzilla opened with $93.19 million over the weekend, which is a better opening than The Amazing Spider-Man 2 managed, but it wasn't quite up to Captain America: The Winter Soldier. It also helped the overall box office soar to $178 million, which is 30% more than last weekend. More importantly, it was 16% more than the same weekend last year. 2014 is now ahead of 2013 by a margin of $185 million or 5.3% at $3.66 billion to $3.48 billion.
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May 18th, 2014
After a huge start on Friday, estimated at $38.5 million, Godzilla looked as though it might be the first film of 2014 to have a $100 million opening weekend. But the monster movie seems to have run out of energy a little through the weekend, and Warner Bros. is projecting a weekend around $93.2 million, based on figures through Sunday morning. The film’s performance is well ahead of earlier tracking, which pegged its opening around $60 million–$80 million, and impressive for a non-sequel (although clearly Godzilla is a well-established franchise at this point). In fact, it is one of the top 10 non-sequel openers ever (see full list here).
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May 13th, 2014
Neighbors got off to a much faster start than expected, as did many of the top five films. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 fell more than 60% during its sophomore stint, but that was expected, at least it was inline with my expectations. Overall, the box office still fell from last weekend, but by 11% to $137 million, which isn't as bad as it could have been. It was down 14% from the same weekend last year, but that's a huge improvement from what it was last weekend, so in a small way, it is a bit of a victory. Year-to-date, 2014 has pulled in $3.45 billion, putting it 5.4% ahead of 2013's pace. That's down from its peak, but even if 2014 loses next weekend and the weekend after that, 2014 should still remain ahead of last year's pace.
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May 8th, 2014
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 saw its weekend box office haul explode with $117.38 million on 30,460 screens in 41 markets for totals of $278.23 million internationally and $369.84 million worldwide. The film opened in first place in Brazil with $11.06 million on 1,139 screens and in second place in France with $11.03 million on 837. It broke the record for biggest Hollywood debut in India with $6.9 million on 1,523 screens. The film also opened in China, on Sunday, with $9.9 million on 11,031 screens, which was a record for an opening Sunday.
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May 6th, 2014
The summer blockbuster season has begun and it started on a mixed note. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 easily earned first place with more than $90 million. An opening of more than $90 million isn't a bad number, but it is the lowest opening three-day weekend for a Friday debut in the franchise. Worse still, the overall box office was just $153 million, which is substantially lower than last year's number one film, Iron Man 3, opened with. $153 million is 32% higher than last weekend, but the start of summer should be bigger than that. It is also 30% lower than the same weekend last year. You usually only see a decline that sharp when there's a misalignment in a holiday weekend. Granted, 2014 is still ahead of 2013 by a large margin (8.6% or $3.26 billion to $3.01 billion) so we don't have to worry about 2014 losing that lead any time soon. This is just not a great way to start the summer blockbuster season.
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May 4th, 2014
The modern tradition is that first weekend in May starts the Summer season with a super-hero action movie. And Hollywood being the industry that lets no tradition go before it's beaten it to death, this year we start Summer, on the first weekend in May, with the release of The Amazing Spider-Man 2. Now, the most amazing fact about the Spider-Man franchise is probably that every movie has done worse at the domestic box office than the one before it, even without adjusting for inflation. This is another tradition that looks like it might continue, with Spider-Man 2 opening with $92 million—without doubt a very good debut, but one that points towards a final box office around $250 million, or perhaps a shade higher. With The Amazing Spider-Man having made $262 million in 2012, a fourth straight decline for the franchise looks like a 50-50 bet right now.
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May 2nd, 2014
It is the official opening of the summer blockbuster season and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 hopes to get the summer off to a fast start. On the positive side, it is the latest installment in one of the most popular comic book franchises. On the negative side, its reviews are below expectations and below the overall positive level. There are no other new releases to pick up the slack should this film fail to live up to lofty expectations at the box office, although The Other Woman should still do well in a counter-programming role. Last year Iron Man 3 dominated the way with $174.14 million during the opening weekend. There's no way The Amazing Spider-Man 2 will match that this weekend. There is a small chance The Amazing Spider-Man 2 won't make that in total.
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April 30th, 2014
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 rose to first place on the international chart with $67.34 million on 14,587 screens for a two-week total of $132.15 million. This week's new openings included South Korea, where the film dominated with $10.84 million on 1,472 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $13.85 million. This is on par with The Amazing Spider-Man. It also earned first place in Russia with $9.34 million on 1,779 screens, which is also about on par with the first film. In Japan, it only managed fourth with $4.11 million on 763 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.11 million, which is less than half of the opening of the first film. On the other hand, it was stronger in Italy with $5.71 million on 811 screens over the weekend for a total of $6.58 million. It added $5.66 million on 1,566 screens over the weekend for a total of $27.77 million in the U.K., which again is about on par with The Amazing Spider-Man.
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April 29th, 2014
April ended with a new film on top, The Other Woman, which finally broke Captain America: The Winter Soldier's hold on the box office chart. It was a surprisingly strong hit earning $24.76 million, but the other new releases were not as strong. Brick Mansions only managed fifth place, while The Quiet Ones missed the Mendoza Line. The overall box office was $115 million, which was 13% lower than last weekend. More importantly, this is 25% more than the same weekend last year. 2014 added to its lead over 2013, which now stands at $257 million, or 9.2%. Its running tally is $3.05 billion and summer is just about to start.
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April 27th, 2014
By every measure, April at the box office has been dominated by Captain America: Winter Soldier, but it won't win every weekend this month, thanks to a jaunty $24.7 million debut for The Other Woman. The comedy, headlined by Cameron Diaz, Leslie Mann and Kate Upton hasn't been a huge hit with critics, but audiences are giving it a solid 70% at Rotten Tomatoes, which is plenty for a comedy (The Heat, by comparison, earns a 72% positive audience score at Rotten Tomatoes, though it started higher). A strong run in theaters certainly seems possible for The Other Woman, given its competition over the next few weeks will mostly come from male-skewing films (Moms' Night Out being the only exception).
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April 24th, 2014
The final weekend of April ends with three wide releases. With The Amazing Spider-Man 2 looming large on the horizon, it should come has no surprise that the three wide releases this weekend and not expected to be huge hits. The Other Woman has a shot at first place, but Captain America: The Winter Soldier might block it. On the other hand, I'm fairly sure Brick Mansions and The Quiet Ones can't both fit into the top five. Last year, April ended with Pain and Gain earning first place with just over $20 million. That is likely more than the first place film this year will earn. However, this year has better depth than last year, so I think 2014 will still come out ahead.
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April 24th, 2014
Rio 2 remained in first place, barely, with $47.1 million in 65 markets for an international total of $200.9 million and a worldwide total of $276.0 million after a month of release. This includes a second place opening in Italy where it pulled in $2.17 million on 711 screens. This is again weaker than its predecessor's opening there. The film earned $12.05 million in China, but that was for the full week, pushing its total to $25.01 million after two. The first film barely played in China, so this is a boost to its international numbers, but I don't think it will be enough to match what the original movie made.
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April 22nd, 2014
Captain America: The Winter Soldier won the weekend box office race with a better than expected result and this helped it reach $200 million. Likewise, Heaven is for Real was surprisingly strong earning second place over the weekend, despite opening on Wednesday. Unfortunately, none of the other new releases lived up to expectations and the overall box office fell 5% to $133 million. This was still 20% higher than the same weekend last year, boosting 2014's lead over 2013 to 8% at $2.92 billion to $2.70 billion.
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April 20th, 2014
Moviegoers are celebrating Easter weekend by turning out in big numbers to see Heaven is for Real. The Christian-themed movie will be the biggest opener this weekend, with a very respectable $21.5 million projected Friday-to-Sunday and a theater average of $8,895. That puts it at nearly twice box office take of the widest opener this weekend, Transcendence, which is set for a very disappointing $11.15 million debut. Also opening this weekend, and similarly posting mediocre numbers is A Haunted House 2, with a projected $9.1 million from 2,310 theaters. But, with a production budget reported at $4 million, compared to $100 million for Transcendence, the horror spoof shouldn't have a hard time earning money.
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April 17th, 2014
It's a busy weekend with four wide releases opening this week, but only one of them, Transcendence, has a real shot at opening in first place, but its reviews will likely prevent that. Heaven is for Real is aiming for a midlevel hit, to match its midlevel reviews. A Haunted House 2 hopes to match its predecessor, but it is unlikely to get there. Finally there's Bears, which has the best reviews, but the weakest box office potential. Despite the number of new releases, top spot will likely be a battle between Captain America: The Winter Soldier and Rio 2. Family films tend to have better legs, so that could give Rio 2 the edge, but movies also tend to drop the most during their sophomore weekend. (That is unless their theater count collapses shortly afterward.) Last year, Oblivion opened with $37.05 million, which is a figure no film will match this year. On the other hand, 42 was the only other film to earn more than $10 million last weekend. 2014 will lose on the top of the chart, but it also has better depth than 2013 did, so that should help it come out on top in the end.
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April 17th, 2014
Rio 2 raced to first place with $63.5 million on 20,008 screens in 65 markets for a total of $125.6 million after four weeks of release. This includes a first place debut in Mexico, where it earned $8.42 million on 2,627 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $8.97 million. This is about $3 million more than the first film's debut there. It also earned first place in Australia with $2.09 million on 278 screens, although this is weaker than its predecessor. It is still too soon to tell where it will finish internationally, as it has been doing better in some markets, but worse in others, when compared to Rio. That said, I think the studio should be happy overall.
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April 15th, 2014
Only Lovers Left Alive earned top spot on the per theater chart with ease earning an average of $21,997 in four theaters. Captain America: The Winter Soldier was the only other film in the $10,000 club as it earned an average of $10,481.
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April 14th, 2014
As expected, Captain America: The Winter Soldier took the top spot on the weekend box office chart, but it was a little closer than expected, as the film's sophomore stint was on the low side of predictions. Rio 2 did very well opening with a nearly identical result as its predecessor. Oculus opened well, for a film that cost $5 million to make. It likely won't have good legs, because films of that genre rarely do, but it should break even regardless. Only Draft Day was disappointing. Overall, the box office was able to pull in $140 million over the weekend. This was down 16% from last weekend, but this is still 20% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2014 has now pulled in $2.73 billion, which is nearly 8% and $200 million more than last year's pace.
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April 13th, 2014
When Friday's numbers came in, the consensus was that Rio 2 would take the weekend, but relatively weak Saturday numbers for the debutant, and strength through the weekend for Captain America: The Winter Soldier, means that the final weekend estimates on Sunday morning point towards a win for Marvel's superheroes. Captain America is projected to earn $41.4 million over three days for a domestic total around $159 million after two weekends. That's well ahead of the original's $117 million at this stage in its release, and the film's worldwide box office will better the first film's final global total by the end of the weekend too. Rio 2, meanwhile, will have an opening weekend almost identical to Rio, which is a slight disappointment, but hardly a disaster.
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April 10th, 2014
While Captain America: The Winter Soldier is expected to win the race for first place on the box office chart this weekend, some think it will be rather close with Rio 2 giving it a fight. Draft Day and Oculus will also be in a close race for third place with both films earning in the low teens. Overall, the box office looks a lot stronger than it did last year. Both The Winter Soldier and Rio 2 will crush 42's opening, while Draft Day and Oculus will be close to Scary Movie 5's debut.
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April 9th, 2014
Captain America: The Winter Soldier remained in first place on the international chart with $109.8 million in 50 markets for a two week total of $209.4 million internationally and $304.4 million worldwide. The Winter Soldier is already ahead of the first Captain America internationally, and by this time next week, it will have $500 million worldwide, about 30% more than its predecessor's final figure. This week, the film opened in first place in a trio of major markets, led by China where it earned $36.23 million, which is just over $20 million more than the first film finished with in that market. Russia was next with an opening of $7.79 million on 1,685, or $1 million lower than the first film's final tally there. Finally there was Australia, where the film opened with $5.91 million, which is about 20% more than its predecessor opened with. As far as holdovers go, the film added $4.64 million in the U.K. for a total of $18.31 million there, which is already ahead of the first film's total.
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April 9th, 2014
The winners of our Winter is Coming contest were determined and they are...
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April 8th, 2014
Under the Skin opened surprisingly well with a per theater average of $33,289 in four theaters. This is the second best opening per theater average for any film released in 2014, well back of The Grand Budapest Hotel's record-breaking debut. The only other film in the $10,000 club was the overall box office leader, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, which earned an average of $24,130 in nearly 4,000 theaters.
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April 7th, 2014
So the first weekend of April was amazing. Not only did Game of Thrones set a series record for ratings (and the best for HBO since The Sopranos) but Captain America: The Winter Soldier set the April opening weekend of all time. Its opening was on the high end of expectations, which is great news, and this strength helped the overall box office grow by 19% from last weekend to $167 million. This is also 24% more than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2014 now has $2.55 billion, which is 7% more than 2013's running tally of $2.38 billion.
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April 6th, 2014
The evolution of the Avengers universe is working out very well for Disney. In November, Thor enjoyed a bump from $65 million to $85 million on opening weekend (and an almost $200 million boost in final worldwide box office). Now, Captain American: Winter Soldier is topping the first movie in its sub-franchise by $30 million or so on opening weekend, with a projected total of $96.2 million, compared to $65 million last time around. With excellent reviews, and a better global launch, we could be looking at another $600 million in the bank before this one is finished. Into the bargain, the film will easily be the record weekend in April, comfortably ahead of the $86 million earned by Fast Five back in 2011.
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April 4th, 2014
It is a busy week, not only in terms of quantity, but also quality. There are seven films earning 80% positive reviews or higher (at least when I checked last). Some of these, like Afflicted, probably won't find an audience in theaters, because it is just the wrong genre. Others, like The Unknown Known and Watermark, might do well for the genre, but won't find any real measure of mainstream success. On the other hand, Under the Skin and Alan Partridge might find audiences in theaters.
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April 3rd, 2014
Next weekend there are three wide releases, but only Rio 2 is expected to make a lot of noise at the box office. (Personally, I'm more interested in seeing Oculus.) It might not earn first place, because Captain America: The Winter Soldier could repeat as box office champion. However, it is the only real choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Rio 2.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Flowers in the Attic on DVD.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Flowers in the Attic on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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April 3rd, 2014
It is the first weekend in April, which means one thing... Game of Thrones returns! Also, Captain America: The Winter Soldier opens domestically. The film already opened internationally and was a much bigger hit than its predecessor was in the markets it debuted in, which bodes well for its opening here. On the other hand, it scared away all other films and there's no competition opening in wide release and it could take a real bite out of the holdovers. That said, this weekend last year, the biggest hit of the weekend was Evil Dead, which only made $25.78 million and The Winter Soldier could earn four times that over the weekend.
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April 3rd, 2014
Captain America: The Winter Soldier started its international run a week earlier than its domestic run and it started out really well. It earned first place with $75.2 million in 32 markets. This includes a number of major markets, led by the U.K. with $10.05 million on 535 screens. By comparison, the first Captain America made $14.75 million in the U.K., in total, including a $4.90 million start. It also cracked $10 million in South Korea with $8.89 million on 1,268 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $10.99 million. The first film made $3.81 million in South Korea in total. The Winter Soldier also opened in Mexico, earning $8.60 million on 2,681, which was a little bit above its predecessor opening. It is too soon to tell if it will reach $20 million, like The First Avenger did. The first film made $10.28 million in France in total, while this film opened with $6.06 million on 664 screens. In Germany, the film only managed $3.66 million on 626 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.99 million, compared to $4.81 million the original made in total. It had a near identical opening in Italy with $3.60 million on 648 screens over the weekend, for a total opening of $4.06 million. This is close to half of the $8.60 million the first film made in total in that market. On the other hand, the film had to settle for second place in Spain with $2.93 million in 709 screens, which is just a little bit more than the $2.54 million the original opened with. As you can tell, The Winter Soldier topped The First Avenger's opening in every major market. It topped its predecessor's total in one major market. This is an amazing start and with several major markets left ahead of it, an international total of $300 million is a reasonable goal.
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April 1st, 2014
March is over and it ended on a bit of a down note. Noah topped expectations, but not every film managed to do the same. For instance, Sabotage barely avoided the Mendoza Line. Overall the box office was down less than $1 million, or 0.7%, when compared to last weekend. Compared to last year, the box office was down 5%, which isn't great, but given how strong 2014 has been, it is hardly a reason to panic. In fact, year-to-date, 2014 has a 6% lead over 2013 at $2.35 billion to $2.22 billion.
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April 1st, 2014
March was stronger than expected when compared to 2013 with four films earning $100 million or more, led by Divergent. (Not all of them have gotten there yet, but they are certain to reach that milestone before they are done their box office runs.) It wasn't a blow-out victory, on the other hand, as a few weekends the ticket sales were lower in 2014 than they were during the same weekend in 2013. April looks really strong with Captain America: The Winter Soldier leading the way. This film should top $200 million over the weekend, while it isn't the only film that should crack the century mark, as Rio 2 is also on track for $100 million. This is great news, as no film last April reached $100 million. Granted, 42 came close and Oblivion wasn't far behind, but The Winter Soldier should earn more than those two films earned combined giving 2014 a comfortable lead over 2013 over the full month.
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March 28th, 2014
Next weekend is the first weekend in April, which can only mean one thing... Game of Thrones returns. ... Also, Captain America: The Winter Soldier is opening wide. In fact, it is the only wide release of the week, so it is the only choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Captain America: The Winter Soldier.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Birds of Paradise on DVD, which is a Walmart Exclusive this week.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win Birds of Paradise on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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