2019 Preview: April
April 1, 2019
March was a good month at the box office with most films beating expectations. The biggest hit was Captain Marvel, which is still on pace for $400 million domestically and may have crossed $1 billion worldwide by the time you read this. The biggest “miss” was Dumbo, but it is still going to top $100 million domestically with ease. This month, it is a battle between Avengers: Endgame and last year’s Infinity War. To be fair, A Quiet Place got last April off to a very fast start and Shazam! should do the same this year, so there will be more than one potential box office hit to talk about. That said, Endgame will almost certainly open with more than any other April release earns in total and if 2019 is going to cut into its deficit with 2018, it will be on the back of that one film.
The first weekend of April is the only weekend of the month that I’m actually bullish about, at least until Avengers: Endgame come out. There are three wide releases, including Shazam!, which should get the month off to a fast start. Pet Sematary is a long-shot to reach $100 million domestically, but you can’t dismiss the possibility. Finally, The Best of Enemies is the counter-counter programming and I’m worried it is going to get lost in the crowd. This weekend last year, A Quiet Place opened with just over $50 million, which Shazam! should match, but it won’t have as long legs, while Pet Sematary should work well enough as counter-programing to help 2019 continue its winning streak.
Given this film’s subject matter, (It’s about a real life civil rights activist and a KKK leader becoming friends.) one would normally assume it would be an Oscar contender, except it is opening way too early in the year for Awards Season. Additionally, as I’m writing this, there are still no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, which is not a good sign. Finally, it is by far the smallest film opening this weekend and I’m afraid it will get lost in the crowd.
A remake of the 1989 film, based on the Stephen King book of the same name. I’m not a fan of the previous film, but I have high hopes for this one, as its early reviews are excellent. On the other hand, Shazam! is a much bigger movie and the two films do share some of the same audience, which will hurt this film at the box office. I still think it will be a midlevel hit, so it will break even sooner rather than later.
I was more bullish than most people are when it came to Shazam!’s box office chances, but now I’m having doubts. Like most people, I thought it would have the weakest domestic run of any film in the D.C.E.U.; however, I thought it would do about as well as Ant-Man did. This is in stark comparison to the average prediction of about $150 million, with a few outliers in either direction. This would still be a fantastic run for a film that cost $85 million to make and it would also solidify the D.C.E.U.’s lighter tone going forward. There are some reasons to be really bullish, like its reviews, which are currently more than 90% positive. However, in the face of so many more pessimistic predictions, I’ve decided to lower my expectations to $160 million, but hopefully by the end of the weekend, I will be kicking myself for not sticking with my gut on this one.
The second weekend of April is the busiest weekend of the month, but that’s not a good thing. At this point, Avengers: Endgame starts to loom large over the horizon, so studios aren’t releasing films they have a lot of confidence in. The four releases include Hellboy, which looks good on paper, but if the execution was strong, then Lionsgate wouldn’t release it now. Little is a throwback to a type of comedy that hasn’t been popular in a while. Missing Link is a stop-motion animated film and while I love these movies, Chicken Run was the last such film to earn $100 million here. Finally, there’s After, which is based on a One Direction fanfic. Yikes. This weekend last year, Rampage opened with $35.75 million, while A Quiet Place held on spectacularly well earning $32.97 million over the weekend. There were also three more films that topped $10 million. That’s a lot of depth, so much so that I don’t think 2019 will be able to top it and its winning streak will finally come to an end.
This film is based on a One Direction fanfic. They can’t even try and sell the film as a Young Adult Adaptation, because that genre isn’t selling a lot of tickets these days. Furthermore, it is the smallest film opening during the busiest week of the month. It has a lot of obstacles to overcome.
A lot of people loved the Guillermo del Toro Hellboy movies and the director wanted to make more of them. A lot of fans of those films are going to see this film as, at best, a pale imitation of what Guillermo del Toro could have made, if he had been allowed to make more of these movies. Or, at worse, the reason Guillermo del Toro can’t make more of these movies and they will hate this film as a result. There’s almost no chance this film will match its predecessors at the box office. On the positive side, this film also cost a lot less to make, so it won’t have to be a $100 million hit domestically to break even.
Regina Hall stars as a ruthless business woman who, as the result of a wish, is turned back into her 13-year old self, played by Marsai Martin. She has to get help from her put upon assistant, Issa Rae, to end the wish.
Every decade or so, body swap films like this become big and we get a string of them. Little would have to really beat expectations to cause a new trend. That said, it wouldn’t have to beat expectations by much to become a solid financial success, as it appears to be a reasonably priced movie.
Missing Link is a stop-motion animated film about a Mr. Link, voiced by Zach Galifianakis, the last living ancient relative of humans, who travels with Hugh Jackman and Zoe Saldana to find others of his kind. I love stop-motion animated films, but it has been a decade since there has been a real hit among these films and I don’t see this film ending that streak.
It’s the weekend before Avengers: Endgame comes out, so it is no surprise there are no major films coming out this week. The Curse of La Llorona is a low-budget horror film set in The Conjuring universe, so it could be a midlevel hit. Or people may have grown tired of these films. It’s hard to tell. Penguins is the latest nature documentary from Disneynature. These are reliable at the box office, but not exciting draws. Finally there’s Breakthrough, a faith-based film. There are some signs that this genre isn’t dead yet. This weekend last year, A Quiet Place returned to top spot with just over $20 million. Hopefully The Curse of La Llorona will top that, because we need it to just give 2019 a shot at winning the year-over-year comparison.
A faith-based film about a near-death experience. Faith-based films haven’t been potent at the box office for a while, but there have been a few hits sprinkled in among the misses. If the buzz surrounding this film is accurate, then it will be one of the hits. It does appear to be more mainstream and should earn some level of crossover audience. On the other hand, it won’t be in theaters long before Avengers: Endgame comes out. The two films don’t share a lot of their target audiences, but Endgame will be on so many screens that no other film will be able to compete, no matter how unique their target audience is.
Linda Cardellini stars as a social worker who becomes the target of La Llorona, a ghost of a mother who has lost her children. This is part of The Conjuring universe, not that you can tell from the advertising. Perhaps the studio doesn’t want to make that connection, because they fear franchise fatigue has set in and people are tired of these films. Additionally, Pet Sematary opens the first weekend of April and it is earning much louder buzz, so it could overshadow this film. Finally, this film’s reviews are mixed and most moviegoers will be excitedly talking about Avengers: Endgame at this point and there is a substantial crossover audience between super hero action films and horror movies.
The latest nature documentary from Disneynature. It has been a while since any of these films were breakout hits, but they are usually solid performers at the box office, especially compared to most documentaries. Furthermore, while this film has no connection to March of the Penguins, penguins are popular enough that this should boost its box office chances.
It’s Avengers: Endgame vs. Avengers: Infinity War. Infinity War opened this weekend last year earning close to $258 million. Most think Endgame will top that number and it will do so by enough to ensure 2019 wins in the year-over-year comparison.
Avengers: Endgame is the 22nd installment in the MCU and the final installment in what is now being called The Infinity Saga. The films have earned a total of $18 billion worldwide and there’s no reason to think this one won’t be improving the franchise’s averages. In fact, many think it will be the biggest hit in the franchise in terms of opening weekend, domestic total, and worldwide total. I agree with these high-end predictions. The film’s buzz is louder than any installment in the franchise and because it doesn’t end on a cliffhanger, it should have longer legs than Avengers: Infinity War did.
Weekend of April 5th, 2019
The Best of Enemies
Official Site: STXMovies.com/TheBestOfEnemies
Distributor: STX Entertainment
Release Date: April 5th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for thematic material, racial epithets, some violence and a suggestive reference.
Source: Based on Factual Book/Article
Genre: Drama
Keywords:
Ku Klux Klan, 1970s, North Carolina, Race Relations, Elementary School
Directed By: Robin Bissell
Written By: Robin Bissell, Osha Gray Davidson
Starring: Taraji P. Henson, Sam Rockwell
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $20 million to $30 million
Box Office Potential: $20 million
Pet Sematary
Official Site: Facebook.com/PetSemataryMovie
Distributor: Paramount Pictures
Release Date: April 5th, 2019
MPAA Rating: R for horror violence, bloody images, and some language.
Source: Remake
Genre: Horror
Keywords:
Zombies, Animals Gone Bad, Non-Chronological, Scary Kids, Death of a Son or Daughter, Supernatural, Native American Folklore, Remake
Directed By: Dennis Widmyer, Kevin Kolsch
Written By: Jeff Buhler, Stephen King
Starring: Jason Clarke
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $30 million to $40 million
Box Office Potential: $50 million million
Shazam!
Official Site: Shazam-Movie.net/
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: April 5th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for intense sequences of action, language, and suggestive material.
Source: Based on Comic/Graphic Novel
Genre: Action
Keywords:
D.C. Comics, Origin Story, Orphan, Foster Family, Disability, Secret Identity, Super Villains
Directed By: David F. Sandberg
Written By: Darren Lemke, Henry Gayden, C C Beck, Bill Parker
Starring: Zachary Levi, Asher Angel
Production Budget: Reported at $85 million
Box Office Potential: $160 million
Weekend of April 12th, 2019
After
Official Site: Facebook.com/AfterSeriesMovies/
Distributor: Aviron Pictures
Release Date: April 12th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for sexual content and some college partying.
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords:
Romance, Relationships Gone Wrong, College
Directed By: Jenny Gage
Written By: Susan McMartin, Anna Todd
Starring: Josephine Langford, Hero Fiennes Tiffin
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimates at $10 million to $20 million
Box Office Potential: $15 million
Hellboy
Official Site: Hellboy.movie/
Distributor: Lionsgate
Release Date: April 12th, 2019
MPAA Rating: R for strong bloody violence and gore throughout, and language
Source: Remake
Genre: Horror
Keywords:
Dark Horse Comics, Demons, Supernatural, Revenge, Shapeshifter, Witches
Directed By: Neil Marshall
Written By: Mike Mignola, Andrew Cosby, Christopher Golden, Aron Coleite, Mike Mignola
Starring: David Harbour
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $50 million to $60 million
Box Office Potential: $55 million
Little
Official Site: LittleTheMovie.com
Distributor: Universal
Release Date: April 12th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for some suggestive content.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Comedy
Keywords:
High School, Curses, Body Swap
Directed By: Tina Gordon
Written By: Camilla Blackett, Tracy Oliver, Tracy Oliver
Starring: Regina Hall, Marsai Martin, Issa Rae
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $15 million to $25 million
Box Office Potential: $35 million
Missing Link
Official Site: MissingLinkFilm.co.uk
Distributor: United Artists
Release Date: April 12th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG for action/peril and some mild rude humor.
Keywords:
Road Trip, Explorer, Character's Journey Shown on Map, Cryptozoology
Directed By: Chris Butler
Written By: Chris Butler
Starring: Hugh Jackman, Zoe Saldana, Zach Galifianakis
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $50 million to $60 million
Box Office Potential: $30 million
Weekend of April 19th, 2019
Breakthrough
Official Site: FoxMovies.com/Movies/Breakthrough
Distributor: 20th Century Fox
Release Date: April 17th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG for thematic content including peril.
Source: Based on Factual Book/Article
Genre: Drama
Keywords:
Faith-Based, Basketball, Medical and Hospitals, Coma, Christians
Directed By: Roxann Dawson
Written By: Grant Nieporte, Emily Renteria
Starring: Chrissy Metz, Josh Lucas, Topher Grace, Mike Colter, Marcel Ruiz, Dennis Haysbert
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $15 million to $25 million
Box Office Potential: $35 million
The Curse of La Llorona
Official Site: Facebook.com/LaLloronaMovie/
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: April 19th, 2019
MPAA Rating: R for violence and terror.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Horror
Keywords:
Supernatural, Death of a Son or Daughter, Curses, Hauntings
Directed By: Michael Chaves
Written By: Mikki Daughtry, Tobias Iaconis
Starring: Linda Cardellini
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $15 million to $25 million
Box Office Potential: $55 million
Penguins
Official Site: Nature.Disney.com/Penguins
Distributor: Walt Disney
Release Date: April 17th, 2019
MPAA Rating: G
Source: Based on Real Life Events
Genre: Documentary
Keywords:
Romance, Animal Lead, Nature Documentary, Antarctica
Directed By: Alastair Fothergill, Jeff Wilson
Written By: David Fowler
Starring:
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $5 million to $15 million
Box Office Potential: $15 million
Weekend of April 26th, 2019
Avengers: Endgame
Official Site: Movies.Disney.com/Avengers-Endgame
Distributor: Walt Disney
Release Date: April 26th, 2019
MPAA Rating:
Source: Based on Comic/Graphic Novel
Genre: Action
Keywords:
Ensemble, Marvel Comics, Animal Lead, Non-Chronological, Super Villains, Death of a Best Friend
Directed By: Joe Russo, Anthony Russo
Written By: Christopher Markus, Stephen McFeely
Starring: Brie Larson, Robert Downey, Jr., Evangeline Lilly, Chris Evans, Jeremy Renner, Josh Brolin, Mark Ruffalo, Scarlett Johansson, Benedict Cumberbatch, Don Cheadle, Tom Holland, Chadwick Boseman, Elizabeth Olsen, Paul Bettany, Anthony Mackie, Sebastian Stan
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $250 million or more
Box Office Potential: $725 million
Filed under: Monthly Preview, Shazam!, Avengers: Endgame, Missing Link, The Curse of La Llorona, The Best of Enemies, Hellboy, Pet Sematary, Penguins, Little, Breakthrough, After, Hellboy, Marvel Cinematic Universe, The Conjuring, DC Extended Universe, Guillermo del Toro