Home Market Releases for June 12th, 2018

June 12th, 2018

There are not many big releases on this week’s list. Tomb Raider, Sherlock Gnomes, The Strangers: Prey at Night, and Love, Simon were, at best, midlevel hits domestically. Worse still, only the last one earned good reviews. Fortunately, the film is good enough that the DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, or 4K Ultra HD Combo Pack is worthy as Pick of the Week. More...

Home Market Releases for June 5th, 2018

June 4th, 2018

This is a busier week than usual on the home market, but that’s only because there are a higher than usual number of box office flops coming out the same week. The biggest box office hit of the week is A Wrinkle in Time, which did okay here, but bombed internationally. I’m still waiting for a screener to see if it is at least worth a rental. As for Pick of the Week contenders, there’s My Hero Academia: Season Two, Part Two and Thoroughbreds on Blu-ray. In the end, I went with Thoroughbreds, but both are worth owning. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Quiet Place Helps the Box Office Make Some Noise

April 9th, 2018

A Quiet Place not only topped predictions, it nearly doubled them earning $50.20 million during its opening weekend. The rest of the new releases also beat expectations, albeit by much smaller margins. Blockers nearly matched its production budget, while Chappaquiddick and The Miracle Season didn’t embarrass themselves. Add in some strong holds and the total box office was a surprisingly robust $162 million. This is 19% higher than last weekend and 36% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 is still behind 2017 by $60 million or 1.8% at $3.07 billion to $3.12 billion. This is half as much as the gap was this time last week, which is great news going forward. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Spielberg’s Decade Best Can’t Save Overall Box Office

April 3rd, 2018

Ready Player One not only opened in first place over the weekend, but its three-day total of $41.77 million was Steven Spielberg’s best opening weekend as a director in almost exactly a decade. Acrimony was a solid second place finisher with $17.17 million. God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness missed the top ten. Overall, the box office rose 4.9% from last weekend hitting $136 million, but this was still 20% lower than the same weekend last year. 2018 is now 4.9% or $150 million behind 2017’s pace at $2.84 billion to $2.99 billion. More...

Weekend Predictions: Is Player One Ready to Dominate the Box Office? (With Preview Numbers)

March 29th, 2018

March comes to a close with three wide releases. Of these, only Ready Player One is expected to be even a midlevel hit. In fact, it will likely earn more over its four-day weekend than the other two films earn in total. Acrimony should open in the mid to low teens, while God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness will barely make the top ten. This weekend last year, The Boss Baby opened with just over $50 million. Maybe Ready Player One will make that much over four days. Even if it does, 2017’s impressive depth means there’s almost no chance 2018 will win in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Uprising Wins, but Falls Compared to Original

March 27th, 2018

Pacific Rim: Uprising opened in first place over the weekend. In fact, it opened better than expected with $28.12 million. Unfortunately, that’s nowhere near enough compared to its production budget, so it will need international numbers to thrive. Black Panther was finally removed from top spot, but it also held on better than expected with $17.10 million. As for the rest of the new releases, they ranged from serious disappointments like Sherlock Gnomes and Paul, Apostle of Christ, to complete bombs like Midnight Sun and Unsane. The overall box office slipped just 2.0% from last week earning $129 million. However, this is 36% lower than the same weekend last year. 2018’s lead has completely evaporated and it is now $60 million or $2.1% behind 2017’s pace at $2.64 billion to $2.69 billion. I don’t see that improving this coming weekend. More...

Weekend Estimates: Pacific Rim Leads Weak Field of Openers

March 25th, 2018

Black Panther’s run at the top of the domestic chart will finally come to an end this weekend, with Pacific Rim: Uprising taking over as the most popular film in the US and Canada. The switch over is mostly due to Panther beginning to run out of steam, rather than Uprising showing any particular strength though. Universal’s sci-fi action movie will pick up $28.005 million over its opening weekend in North America, about in line with expectations, but disappointing for a film that cost $150 million to make. Overseas markets, particularly in Asia, are where the box office action is at for this one. More...

Friday Estimates: Pacific Rim Rises to Meet Expectations

March 24th, 2018

As expected, Pacific Rim: Uprising earned first place on Friday. In fact, its opening day box office of $10.36 million is actually a little better than expected and it is on pace for a $26 million opening weekend. Granted, this is a terrible opening compared to the film’s production budget, which is reportedly in the $155 million to $175 million range. Neither its reviews, nor its B-rating from CinemaScore will help its legs, but this film was never made to win over domestic audiences. It was made to shine in Asia, specifically China. It is too soon to tell for sure if that’s a viable strategy, or if Universal is going to have to suck up massive losses. Based on Friday numbers, the studio is predicting a $65 million opening weekend China alone and a $120.5 million international debut. That’s obviously better than here, but the film will need at least $400 million internationally to break even any time soon. More...

Weekend Predictions: Kaiju vs. Panther

March 22nd, 2018

Black Panther will finally give up its hold on first place, that is unless something goes horribly wrong for Pacific Rim: Uprising. There are four other wide or semi-wide releases hitting theaters this weekend, which is at least two too many. Sherlock Gnomes and Paul, Apostle of Christ are the only two that have a legitimate shot at the top five. Meanwhile, Midnight Sun and Unsane are just hoping to not miss the top ten. This weekend last year, there were three wide releases that earned a combined $60 million. This is more than the five wide releases this year will earn. Also, Beauty and the Beast remained in second place with $90 million. 2018 has already lost its lead over 2017 and this weekend it is going to get crushed in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Theater Averages: Flower Doesn’t Smell as Sweet as Stalin

March 20th, 2018

The Death of Stalin remained in first place on the theater average chart with an average of $16,791 in 32 theaters, while Flower was right behind with an average of $16,306 in 3 theaters. Keep the Change did really well for a rom com with $12,445 in its lone theater. I Can Only Imagine opened semi-wide managing an average of $10,507. More...

I Can Only Imagine Trailer

March 20th, 2018

Drama starring J. Michael Finley opened on Friday ... Full Movie Details.

The true story behind MercyMe’s beloved, multi-platinum song, which has brought hope to millions. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up

March 20th, 2018

As predicted, Black Panther remained in first place on the weekend chart. Tomb Raider had an okay opening in second place, while I Can Only Imagine was the biggest positive surprise of the weekend. Love, Simon had a solid opening, especially compared to its production budget. The less said about 7 Days in Entebbe, the better. Overall, the weekend box office was down 4.8% from last weekend to just $132 million. This is 49% lower than this weekend last year. A 49% decline usually only happens when there is a misalignment in holidays, but in this case it’s due to Beauty and the Beast’s debut. 2018 is still ahead of 2017, albeit by a fraction of last week’s lead at just $66 million or 2.8%. In fact, with a margin of just $2.46 billion to $2.39 billion, it is very likely 2018 will lose its lead before the next weekend begins. More...

Weekend Estimates: Black Panther Powers Past Tomb Raider

March 18th, 2018

A spirited opening by Tomb Raider won’t be quite enough to knock Black Panther off its perch at the top of the domestic box office chart this weekend. The final numbers will be close: Raider is predicted to earn $23.52 million by Warner Bros., while Disney has Panther coming in with $27.024 million. If the numbers hold (and it would be a huge surprise if they don’t), Black Panther will become the first film since Avatar to spend its first five weekends at the top of the chart. More...

Friday Estimates: Raider Opens in First Place, For Now

March 17th, 2018

As expected, Tomb Raider opened in first place with $9.06 million on Friday. However, this won’t be enough to stay ahead of Black Panther for long. Its reviews are nearly 50% positive, while it earned just a B from CinemaScore. A $23 million to $24 million opening isn’t a bad start for this time of year, but it is far from impressive for a film that reportedly cost between $90 million and $106 million. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Tomb Raider Steals $2.1 million during Midnight Shows

March 16th, 2018

Tomb Raider started its box office run with $2.1 million during its midnight showings. This is almost exactly what the film needed to earn to match our prediction. In fact, it might be a little on the high side. The film’s reviews are, according to Rotten Tomatoes, the best for a video game adaptation of all time, at least for films that got a theatrical release here. If the film can top $25 million over the weekend, then the studio will be mostly happy. They can’t be completely blown away, as the film reportedly cost $90 million to make and it likely won’t have great legs, due to the Fanboy Effect. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Raider Capture Top Spot?

March 15th, 2018

Another week and another film trying to dethrone Black Panther. This week, it’s Tomb Raider’s chance to finally remove Black Panther from first place on the weekend chart. I don’t like its chances. The only other truly wide release of the week is Love, Simon, which should have a solid, but not spectacular opening. There are two other films with a shot at earning a spot in the top ten: I Can Only Imagine and 7 Days in Entebbe. This weekend last year, Beauty and the Beast opened with nearly $175 million. That’s more than the entire box office is going to earn this weekend. 2018 is going to get crushed. More...

2018 Preview: March

March 1st, 2018

February was an amazing month, thanks mainly to Black Panther, but Fifty Shades Freed and Peter Rabbit were also significant hits and overall the month was a massive improvement over last February. Looking forward, there’s nothing opening in March that will earn as much in total as Black Panther did during its opening weekend. That said, A Wrinkle in Time and Ready Player One should have no trouble getting to $100 million, while Tomb Raider has a 50/50 chance of getting there. Unfortunately, compared to last March, this is still a pittance. There’s a chance that no film opening this March will earn as much in total as Beauty and the Beast opened with last march. We will need Black Panther to have good legs to keep 2018 ahead of 2017 by the end of the month. More...