Friday Estimates: Raider Opens in First Place, For Now
March 17, 2018
As expected, Tomb Raider opened in first place with $9.06 million on Friday. However, this won’t be enough to stay ahead of Black Panther for long. Its reviews are nearly 50% positive, while it earned just a B from CinemaScore. A $23 million to $24 million opening isn’t a bad start for this time of year, but it is far from impressive for a film that reportedly cost between $90 million and $106 million.
Black Panther earned $7.52 million on Friday, pushing its running tally to $585.90 million after 29 days of release. This puts it on pace to earn between $28 million and $29 million over the weekend, which is almost exactly what we predicted. This will also be enough to reach $600 million in 31 days of release.
A Wrinkle in Time fell 55% from its opening Friday to $4.60 million this Friday. It will bounce back thanks to its family friendly nature earning $17 million over the weekend, which is again exactly what we predicted. It could still get to $100 million domestically, with a push from the studio.
I Can Only Imagine stunned analysts with $6.23 million during its opening day, including $1.3 million during previews. That’s a little more than what we predicted it would earn during the full weekend. Additionally, that’s not that far behind the $7 million it reportedly cost to make. Its reviews are mixed, but it earned an A plus from CinemaScore, so the film has clearly connected with its target audience. A $15 million opening is amazing for a film that cost just $7 million to make. If it can earn any crossover appeal, it could become a midlevel hit.
Love, Simon wasn’t as potent during its opening day, but I think the studio will still be happy with its $4.6 million Friday debut. The film had the best reviews of any new wide or semi-wide release this week, while it earned an A plus from CinemaScore, so its legs should be very long. They won’t be long enough to match our $14 million prediction, but $12 million is close enough.
As expected, 7 Days in Entebbe stumbled with just $544,000 on Friday, putting it on pace for $1.5 million over the weekend. It earned terrible reviews and it was too small a release to get a CinemaScore.
- Tomb Raider Comparisons
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- Love, Simon Comparisons
- I Can Only Imagine Comparisons
Filed under: Friday Estimates, Black Panther, Tomb Raider, A Wrinkle in Time, 7 Days in Entebbe, I Can Only Imagine, Love, Simon