Weekend Estimates: Black Panther Powers Past Tomb Raider
March 18, 2018
A spirited opening by Tomb Raider won’t be quite enough to knock Black Panther off its perch at the top of the domestic box office chart this weekend. The final numbers will be close: Raider is predicted to earn $23.52 million by Warner Bros., while Disney has Panther coming in with $27.024 million. If the numbers hold (and it would be a huge surprise if they don’t), Black Panther will become the first film since Avatar to spend its first five weekends at the top of the chart.
Fun fact: if we dig into the daily numbers, Black Panther had a longer run at the top of the daily chart than Avatar, which was in second place on the daily chart after only six days, behind Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel, believe it or not. Star Wars: The Force Awakens, however, equaled Black Panther in being number one on the daily chart for 21 consecutive days after its release.
Black Panther’s weekend is the sixth-best fifth weekend, and it will be the second-fastest film to $600 million when it hits that mark today.
After matching Jurassic World almost exactly on a day-by-day basis to begin with, Black Panther is now pulling away: Jurassic World made $18.2 million on its fifth weekend, about $9 million less than Panther. A detailed interactive chart comparing those two with other $600 million-plus earners can be found here.
Black Panther earned another $30 million this weekend internationally, to take its overseas tally to $577 million, and global cume to $1,182.5 million. That moves it up to 14th place all time worldwide. Tomb Raider, however, takes the prize for the weekend internationally, with $84.5 million. Its international running total is $102.5 million, with China representing a hefty $41.1 million of that total.
Domestically, Tomb Raider had a good start on Friday, topping the chart, but was comprehensively beaten by Black Panther on Saturday. Its long term prospects will depend partly on word of mouth, but it also faces some pretty stiff direct competition from Pacific Rim: Uprising and Ready Player One over the next two weekends.
The breakout hit of the weekend is I Can Only Imagine, with a projected $17.1 million—far above expectations. That’s the best weekend ever for distributor Roadside Attractions. The faith-based family drama opened in 1,629 theaters, and it’ll easily have the best theater average in the top 10. Audiences (which are an unusual demographic of 67% female and 80% over 35) gave the film an A+ CinemaScore. That usually means very strong legs, but the remaining question is whether the film can break much beyond its core market.
Love, Simon also performed well this weekend, with Fox projecting a weekend of $11.49 million from 2,402 theaters. Good reviews might indicate strong word of mouth for the coming-of-age drama, and it doesn’t have much direct competition right now.
The other wide-ish new release this weekend, 7 Days in Entebbe had a more muted start, with $1.628 million in 838 theaters, for 13th place overall.
In limited release, Flower will open with about $58,000 from three theaters, and tops this week’s theater averages. Keep the Change will also top $10,000 per theater, with $13,000 in a single location.
- Weekend estimates
- Tomb Raider Comparisons
- Marvel Cinematic Universe franchise history
- Biggest fourth weekends of all time
- Fastest films to $550 million domestic box office
- Black Panther daily tracking vs. $650 million-plus movies
- Love, Simon Comparisons
- I Can Only Imagine Comparisons
- A Wrinkle in Time Comparisons
- The Strangers: Prey at Night Comparisons
- Red Sparrow Comparisons
- Game Night Comparisons
- Peter Rabbit Comparisons
- Death Wish Comparisons
- Annihilation Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Black Panther, Pacific Rim: Uprising, Tomb Raider, 7 Days in Entebbe, I Can Only Imagine, Love, Simon, Keep The Change, Flower, Marvel Cinematic Universe