Weekend Predictions: Can Raider Capture Top Spot?

March 15, 2018

Tomb Raider

Another week and another film trying to dethrone Black Panther. This week, it’s Tomb Raider’s chance to finally remove Black Panther from first place on the weekend chart. I don’t like its chances. The only other truly wide release of the week is Love, Simon, which should have a solid, but not spectacular opening. There are two other films with a shot at earning a spot in the top ten: I Can Only Imagine and 7 Days in Entebbe. This weekend last year, Beauty and the Beast opened with nearly $175 million. That’s more than the entire box office is going to earn this weekend. 2018 is going to get crushed.

Black Panther is going to give up first place eventually, but likely not this weekend. The film should add another $28 million over the weekend, helping it reach $600 million in the process. It will be the seventh film of all-time to reach that milestone and the second from the MCU franchise. It will also be the second fastest to get there, topping Jurassic World by about a week.

Tomb Raider is the latest video game adaptation and if the critics are correct, it is one of the best. Granted, “one of the best” isn’t high praise when it comes to video game adaptations and this film’s Tomatometer Score is just 52% positive. This is fine for this type of film and shouldn’t hurt its box office chances too much. The studio is predicting a $25 million opening and while studios usually try to underestimate how much a film will make, I think this time they are accurate.

A Wrinkle in Time had to settle for second place during its opening, but a good hold here could save its domestic run. As long as it falls less than 50%, which would be about $17 million over the weekend, then it will be on pace to be close enough to $100 million domestically for the studio to give it a push to get it over the top. If it can come closer to $20 million, then it could get there without needing a push. Unfortunately, the lower end seems more likely and I’m going with a $17 million sophomore stint.

Love, Simon is the latest Young Adult adaptation to reach theaters. The genre hasn’t had a lot of hits recently, but the buzz and the reviews suggest this one should find an audience in theaters. I don’t expect it to be a midlevel hit, but a $14 million opening is good for a film that reportedly cost just $17 million to make. Even modest legs would help it break even early in its home market run.

I Can Only Imagine is really hoping to earn a spot in the top five and it has a relatively good shot at doing that thanks to a lack of depth at the box office. It would only take about $6 million to get into the top five. On the downside, this movie is only opening in 1,620 theaters and only has one review on Rotten Tomatoes. On the other hand, it is a faith-based film and that genre is due for a hit. If it can’t get to $6 million, then Peter Rabbit will likely grab fifth place instead.

7 Days in Entebbe is the final film with a shot at earning a spot in the top ten. It is only opening in about 800 theaters and would need to pull in a theater average of just over $4,000 to make the top ten. That shouldn’t be too difficult, if it weren’t for its reviews. Its Tomatometer Score is currently just 17% positive, which is poor enough that opening below the Mendoza Line is a real possibility. I’m not that pessimistic, but I also don’t think it will top $2 million, so it will come close.

- Tomb Raider Comparisons
- Love, Simon Comparisons
- I Can Only Imagine Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Black Panther, Tomb Raider, A Wrinkle in Time, Peter Rabbit, 7 Days in Entebbe, I Can Only Imagine, Love, Simon, Marvel Cinematic Universe