Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

New at The Numbers: More Box Office Chart Improvements

November 13th, 2019

We enjoy all the ideas that have been flooding our inbox, and are pleased to announce a few more chart improvements based on user suggestions. The first update is that changes in theater count can now be seen on our weekend chart and weekly chart.

A lot of users praised our new sortable charts, and we’ve made all of them even easier to share by saving the ordering in the URL. Just sort the chart however you want—for example, the films with the best theater average for the weekend, the greatest weekly change in theater count or the top opening weekends of a franchise—and copy and paste the URL from the top of the browser window to wherever you want to post, save, or share it.

Finally, our daily chart on the home page now clearly displays the weekly change in box office for all movies. More...

Home Market Releases for June 4th, 2019

June 5th, 2019

It is a very busy week on the home market, but unfortunately, most of this is catalog titles coming out on Blu-ray or 4K for the first time. One of these franchises, Toy Story, is a contender for Pick of the Week, as is the The Andromeda Strain: Special Edition Blu-ray. In the end, I went with The Venture Bros.: Season Seven Blu-ray. More...

Weekend Estimates: Captain Marvel Continues to Fly High, Most New Releases Open Strong

March 17th, 2019

Captain Marvel will remain in top spot on the weekend chart with an estimated $69.32 million, giving it a two-week total of $266.21 million. This is higher than predicted and a 55% decline bodes well for its future. It is already ahead of the lifetime domestic totals of eight previous installments in the MCU and it will quickly rise into the top ten. Internationally, the film added $119.7 million to its running tally, which now sits at $494.0 million, while its worldwide total rose to $760.2 million. Yesterday, I said the film could be in the top ten for the MCU. If these estimates hold, it will miss that mark by about $10 million. In fact, given its holds this weekend, it has a pathway to enter the top five. The film’s only, and last, new international opening was Japan. There the film’s estimated weekend opening was $5.6 million, which was the highest opening for a standalone film in the MCU. Meanwhile, outside of China, the film held on even better than it did domestically. China tends to be a very front-loaded market, but the film held on well enough there to get to $132.0 million after just two weeks, making it the fourth highest grossing film in the MCU already. It is even better in Indonesia where its two week total of $16.1 million is the fourth highest total of all-time. We will have more details on the international numbers later in the week. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Captain Marvel Give the New Releases Room to Breathe?

March 15th, 2019

Captain Marvel will undoubetedly dominate the box office again this weekend with some thinking it will avoid a 50% drop-off. I think that is overly optimistic, but there are some good signs. This includes a lack of top-notch new releases. Wonder Park is the biggest new release, at least in terms of theater count, but it also has the worst reviews of the three wide releases. Five Feet Apart has better reviews, but they can best be described as mixed. Meanwhile, Captive State still has barely any reviews and its buzz is so quiet that it might not top the Mendoza Line. Finally, some sources have Nancy Drew and the Hidden Staircase opening wide, but that isn’t happening. That’s too bad, because if it were opening wide, it would have the best reviews of the weekend. This weekend last year, Black Panther completed its month at the top of the chart, while Tomb Raider was the best new releases. Those two films earned almost exactly $50 million combined, which Captain Marvel will top by itself, leading 2019 to the victory in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Captain Marvel Cracks $150 million During Debut

March 12th, 2019

That burst of hot air you feel is box office analysts and movie executives breathing a sigh of relief as 2019 finally has its first win in the year-over-year comparison. Captain Marvel beat expectations earning $153.43 million over the weekend. This is more than the entire box office earned last weekend, helping the box office grow 85% week-over-week to $209 million. The year-over-year growth wasn’t as explosive, but this was still 51% more than the same weekend last year. 2019 is still way behind 2018, $480 million or 22% to be more precise at $1.75 billion to $2.23 billion. However, this gap is about 10% smaller than it was this time last week, so while 2019 has a long, long way to go to catch up to 2018, it at least looks like it is possible instead of just wishful thinking. More...

Weekend Estimates: Captain Marvel Starts Higher. Further. Faster.

March 10th, 2019

Captain Marvel is opening with $153.0 million over the weekend, according to Disney’s estimate. This is on the high end of the studio’s projections based on Friday’s estimates. Additionally, it is more than the entire box office pulled in this weekend last year, as well as the third biggest March opening and the seventh biggest opening in the MCU. The film is already the biggest domestic hit of 2019 and the fifth-biggest hit worldwide. Its legs should be relatively long for a blockbuster, as it earned certified fresh reviews and a solid A from CinemaScore. More...

Friday Estimates: Captain Marvel Sets 2019 Weekend Record in One Day

March 9th, 2019

It took just one day for Captain Marvel to set the record for biggest 2019 weekend, as it dominated the chart with $61.38 million. In fact, it is already in sixth place on the 2019 domestic chart, just behind Alita: Battle Angel. The reviews are on the lower end of the MCU average, but that says more about the high quality of the MCU than the low quality of the film, as its Tomatometer Score is 79% positive. The audience reactions are even more positive; Disney released its CinemaScore and it is a solid A. The film should have no trouble topping our prediction with Disney projecting a $145 million to $155 million weekend. I think they are being a little conservative here, but we will see tomorrow when the weekend estimates show up. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Captain Marvel have a Marvelous Start?

March 7th, 2019

This should easily be the best weekend of 2019 as Captain Marvel is widely expected to become the biggest domestic hit of 2019 and it should take just three days to get there. It could take just two days to get there. This film has no competition, at least when it comes to this year. However, the main competition is Black Panther, A Wrinkle in Time, and the rest of the box office from this weekend last year. Those films pulled in $139 million and hopefully Captain Marvel will top that by itself. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Dragons Don’t Dominate, as Madea Makes the Most of its Final Debut

March 4th, 2019

2019 has hit its low point, I hope. While Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral opened faster than anticipated, Greta couldn’t pull its weight and How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World slipped faster than expected. The overall box office fell 9.4% from last weekend to $113 million. Worse still, this is 23% lower than the same weekend last year. Unfortunately, this is actually better than average for the year so far, as 2019 is now 26% or $540 million behind 2018’s pace at $1.51 billion to $2.04 billion. Fortunately, Captain Marvel should help things turn around when the film debuts in a few days. More...

Weekend Estimates: Dragons Stay Afloat, Medea Ends on a High Note

March 3rd, 2019

According to estimates, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World really bounced back on Saturday and its Sunday number will help it earn first place over the weekend with $30.05 million. This is lower than predictions and a sophomore decline of 48% is a little steep for a family film. That said, the film is nearly at $100 million domestically after just 10 days and its worldwide total is at $375 million, again according to estimates. The film opened in first place in China with $33.38 million in approximately 10,000 locations. The film’s only remaining major market is Japan, but it doesn’t open there until August. In the meantime, the film should have little trouble getting to $500 million worldwide before then. More...

Friday Estimates: Medea Takes on Dragons and Wins

March 2nd, 2019

Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral got off to a faster than expected start on Friday earning $9.2 million. This might be enough to keep it in first place over the full weekend. It depends on its legs. Its reviews are only 29% positive, which normally would be a disaster, but the Madea franchise has been critic-proof for its entire history, so this really shouldn’t have an effect and opening with $26 million or more is likely. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Funeral Springs to Life

March 1st, 2019

Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral got off to a great start by earning $1.1 million during previews on Thursday. This is the biggest previews result for a Tyler Perry film, topping the $1 million Acrimony earned last year. Madea tends to attract older women who are the demographic least likely to rush out for previews, so this start is more impressive than its raw number would suggest. The early reviews are mixed, which is better than expected, but there are only four reviews on Rotten Tomatoes at the moment, so that could change rapidly. More...

2019 Preview: March

March 1st, 2019

2019 has been terrible so far and by the end of February, will be about half a billion dollars behind 2018’s pace. March should be the first step in 2019’s attempt to recover from this hole it has dug for itself. Captain Marvel will be the biggest film of the year so far and tracking has it opening with more than $100 million during the second weekend of March. While that film is undoubtedly going to become the biggest hit of the month, it isn’t the only potential hit opening in March, as both Us and Dumbo are expected to earn $100 million domestically; Dumbo might even top $200 million domestically. As for last March, there were only two films that hit $100 million, A Wrinkle in Time and Ready Player One, and neither of them came close to $200 million. There’s a slim chance this March will be better than last year, even if we ignore Captain Marvel. We could cut the deficit in half by the end of the month, if everything goes well. Then again, if everything went well during the first two months of the year, we wouldn’t be in such a deep hole at this point. More...

Weekend Predictions: New Month, New Beginning?

February 28th, 2019

2019 has been a terrible year and we really need things to turn around soon or there will be no chance for things to turn around by the end. Fortunately, things should turn around in March. Unfortunately, it won’t be this week. The two wide releases this week are Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral and Greta. The former is expected to become a midlevel hit. The latter might not top the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Black Panther continued to dominate the box office with $66.31 million. This is likely more than the combined final domestic box office numbers of the two wide releases. 2019 will lose the year-over-year comparison, again, but hopefully for the last time in several weeks. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Queen Rocks, but Doesn’t Ragnarok

November 6th, 2018

Bohemian Rhapsody’s final weekend numbers beat expectations and it even beat Sunday’s estimates, which is excellent news for Fox. It’s also good news for the box office as a whole, which rose 39% from last weekend reaching $145 million. On the down wide, $145 million isn’t that much more than what Thor: Ragnarok earned this weekend last year and 2018 was behind 2017 by 19% on the year-over-year comparison. Fortunately, the gains during the week were better than the loses over the weekend and 2018’s lead over 2017 grew to $1.002 billion or 11.5% as of the end of business on Sunday, at $9.73 billion to $8.73 billion. This lead will begin to shrink at a rather rapid pace, but there’s not enough weeks left in the year to completely evaporate this lead. More...

2018 Preview: November

November 1st, 2018

October continued 2018’s phenomenal box office run, for the most part. There were a couple of films that missed expectations by $10 million or more, but on the other hand, Vemon and Halloween were smash hits and are now the first and second biggest October debuts of all time. Furthermore, 2018’s lead over 2017 is, as I’m writing this, just shy of $1 billion and if 2018 can maintain this lead, it will be one of the biggest year-over-year increases of all time. It won’t. The fun times end now. Why is that? Last November was amazing. There were only eight wide releases, but six of them earned more than $100 million. Three of those hit $200 million, including Thor: Ragnarok, which earned over $300 million. This year, there are a lot more movies opening in November, but it is a case of quantity over quality. No movie is expected to come close to $300 million and it would take a bit of luck just to have five $100 million hits. The film I’m looking forward to the most is Ralph Breaks the Internet, while it, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, and Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald are all aiming for $200 million this month. Fortunately, even if 2018 is behind 2017’s pace by around $300 million, 2018 has built up such a large lead that it should still go into December with an insurmountable lead at the box office. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Spielberg’s Decade Best Can’t Save Overall Box Office

April 3rd, 2018

Ready Player One not only opened in first place over the weekend, but its three-day total of $41.77 million was Steven Spielberg’s best opening weekend as a director in almost exactly a decade. Acrimony was a solid second place finisher with $17.17 million. God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness missed the top ten. Overall, the box office rose 4.9% from last weekend hitting $136 million, but this was still 20% lower than the same weekend last year. 2018 is now 4.9% or $150 million behind 2017’s pace at $2.84 billion to $2.99 billion. More...

Weekend Predictions: Is Player One Ready to Dominate the Box Office? (With Preview Numbers)

March 29th, 2018

March comes to a close with three wide releases. Of these, only Ready Player One is expected to be even a midlevel hit. In fact, it will likely earn more over its four-day weekend than the other two films earn in total. Acrimony should open in the mid to low teens, while God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness will barely make the top ten. This weekend last year, The Boss Baby opened with just over $50 million. Maybe Ready Player One will make that much over four days. Even if it does, 2017’s impressive depth means there’s almost no chance 2018 will win in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Thor Rule, or is it the End of World for the Box Office?

November 2nd, 2017

November begins with Thor: Ragnarok and A Bad Moms Christmas. Thor: Ragnarok is widely expected to be the sixth film of 2017 to open with $100 million. On the other hand, A Bad Moms Christmas opened yesterday and when I started writing this in the early hours of Thursday morning, there were still no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. Oh boy. That’s not a good sign. Worse still, no other new release it going to come close to $10 million over the weekend. This weekend last year, there were three wide releases that earned more than $10 million, led by Doctor Strange with $85 million. Thor: Ragnarok will top that, but this year's depth is terrible compared to last year and we will very likely see yet another loss in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Box Office is Cut to Pieces, Earning Just $75 million

October 31st, 2017

It was a terrible weekend at the box office with only two films cracking $10 million, Jigsaw and Tyler Perry’s Boo 2: A Madea Halloween. Geostorm earned third place with just $5.90 million. Overall, the box office fell 21% from last weekend to just $75 million. More importantly, this is 15% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 continues to struggle with a running tally of $8.57 billion. This is $470 million or $5.2% below last year’s pace, meaning we fell behind last year’s pace by a further 0.2 percentage points. The box office really needed to be eating into the deficit during the month of October, but that hasn’t been the case. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Jigsaw Still Fit at the Box Office?

October 26th, 2017

There are three wide releases coming out this week, although only Jigsaw is expected to make any real impact at the box office. The other two, Suburbicon and Thank You for Your Service, are opening in barely more than 2,000 theaters and neither of them are expected to do well at the box office. Meanwhile, Tyler Perry’s Boo 2: A Madea Halloween, has an actual shot at repeating in first place, mostly because of the weak competition. This is terrible news for the overall box office, as it means we are going to have a hard time matching last year’s box office, even though last year there was only one wide release, Inferno. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: By earning $21.23 million, Boo 2 is the only Non-Disaster Film of the Weekend

October 24th, 2017

The weekend box office was weaker than expected with only one of the new releases topping predictions. Tyler Perry’s Boo 2: A Madea Halloween wasn’t that one film, but it still led the way with $21.23 million. The only other film to top $10 million was Geostorm with $13.71 million, but it lived up to its disaster genre due to its $100 million production budget. Overall, the box office fell 6.5% from last week to $95 million. That decline is positively glowing compared to the year-over-year comparison. Compared to this weekend last year, 2017 was down 25%. Year-to-date, 2017 is now behind last year’s pace by 5.0% or $440 million at $8.46 billion to $8.90 billion. Unless November and December are stellar, there’s no way 2017 is going to catch up to 2017. More...

Weekend Estimates: Boo Too Much for the Competition

October 22nd, 2017

Boo! 2 is arguably slightly under-performing this weekend, with Lionsgate projecting a weekend total of $21.6 million as of Sunday morning, a figure that is down about $7 million from the debut of Boo! A Madea Halloween. But, in the bigger picture, it represents the continuation of a remarkable run for the Madea franchise that stretches now to eight films, all but one of which have opened with more than $20 million, and which have all topped $50 million, so far. Boo! 2 will be helped by Halloween, which should be just enough to take it over $50 million, and put the franchise close to $500 million at the box office. The only other comedy franchises with close to this longevity at the box office are The Pink Panther, and The Muppets, although neither of those have relied on a single actor (take a bow, Tyler Perry) for the entirety of their run. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Moviegoers Want to View Boo 2?

October 20th, 2017

There are five films opening wide or semi-wide this week, but only one of them, Tyler Perry’s Boo 2: A Madea Halloween, has a real shot at top spot. The best-reviewed new release of the week is Only the Brave, while the Geostorm is the widest release. Then there are the two semi-wide releases, The Snowman and Same Kind of Different as Me. Because there are so many new releases coming out this week, one or two of them are practically guaranteed to slip between the cracks. This weekend last year, the box office was led by the original Boo! with $28.50 million, while the new releases made just over $70 million combined. That seems out of reach for this year’s crop, so 2017 will likely lose in the year-over-year comparison. More...

2017 Preview: October

October 1st, 2017

September destroyed the previous September monthly record for total box office take, with $800 million or so (we won’t know the exact figure until after the weekend), which tops 2016’s record of $616 million. Granted, this is almost entirely due to It’s record breaking run, and the rest of the month was merely average. Kingsman: The Golden Circle was the only other film to come close to $100 million. October doesn’t look any better, as far as depth is concerned. Blade Runner 2049 is widely expected to be the biggest hit of the month, but it is the only film expected to reach $100 million domestically. Boo 2 should be the second biggest hit of the month, while there are only a couple of other films that have a shot at $50 million. Part of the problem is the level of competition, as there are 16 films opening during the four October weekends. (Needless to say, some of the predictions below will be a little short, as there’s not much to say about a film that will barely open in the top ten and disappear two weeks later.) That’s way too many and most will be buried by the competition. Last October was a flop, as no film earned more than $100 million at the box office. There were a few films that came close, including the original Boo! movie. As long as Blade Runner 2049 matches expectations, 2017 should win the year-over-year comparison by a small margin. If we get one surprise hit, then 2017 has a real shot at closing the gap with 2016 by a significant margin. I choose to be cautiously optimistic. More...

Home Market Releases for January 31st, 2017

January 31st, 2017

It’s a slow week at the top, as there are no new releases that were hits in theaters. That doesn’t mean we have no contenders for Pick of the Week, just that they are smaller films or ones that struggled in theaters. Queen of Katwe is the best of this list and the Blu-ray is the Pick of the Week. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Arrival Won’t Get Shut Out

November 11th, 2016

Arrival earned an impressive $1.45 million during its previews last night. This is a little more than the $1.4 million Gravity earned this time in 2013. Granted, midnight shows were not as ubiquitous as they are now, but I still think this is a positive sign. Its reviews should help its legs and while our prediction was a little more bullish than most, I’m a little more confident now. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Nothing Strange about the Doctor’s $85.06 million Opening Weekend

November 7th, 2016

Doctor Strange’s opening weekend was off by 0.069% when compared to our prediction. I think that gives us reason to brag. Both Trolls and Hacksaw Ridge beat expectations by a relatively significant margin. Overall, the weekend box office rose 115% from last weekend to $191 million. That’s 18% more than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016’s lead over 2015 increased to 5.6% or $490 million at $9.28 billion to $8.79 billion. If 2016 can maintain this lead until Rogue One comes out, then 2016 will win in the end. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Madea puts out Inferno’s Fire earning $17.22 million

November 1st, 2016

Halloween helped boost Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween’s numbers over the weekend allowing it to earn first place with $17.22 million. This was much better than the $14.86 million Inferno opened with. While Halloween didn’t happen until Monday, the holiday still had a negative effect on the box office, as it fell 29% to just $88 million. That’s worse than anticipated. Compared to the same weekend last year, 2016 was better by 17%, but it’s hard to spin this as a real victory. Year-to-date, 2016’s lead over 2015 barely budged at $9.06 billion to $8.69 billion. That said, if 2016 can just maintain this lead till Rogue One debuts, then we should have at least some growth at the end of the year. More...

Friday Estimates: Inferno Generates Little Heat with $5.6 million

October 29th, 2016

As expected, Inferno earned first place on Friday. However, it was unexpectedly weak at just $5.6 million. Even strong legs over the weekend would result in an opening of just over $15 million. Given its reviews and its B+ rating from CinemaScore, it won’t have strong legs. Just over $14 million seems more likely at this point. Although it is aimed at a more mature crowd, so that could help. Plus, it is performing much better internationally, so it could break even regardless of how much it makes domestically. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Inferno Catch Fire over the Weekend?

October 27th, 2016

There’s only one wide release this week, Inferno, and it should have no trouble earning first place. On the other hand, it won’t come close to matching the other two films in the Da Vinci Code franchise. Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween earned first place last week, but Madea movies tend to have short legs, so it could see a large drop-off this weekend. Or perhaps Halloween will help it thrive. This weekend last year, Halloween landed on a Saturday. It comes as no surprise that this was a disaster for the box office. The “best” new release, Burnt opened outside of the top five with just $5 million. The two and a half wide releases earned a combined $10 million last year. This year, there’s a small chance Inferno will earn $10 million during its opening day. There’s almost no chance 2016 won’t crush 2015 in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Weekend Wrap-up: Madea Treats Herself to $28.50 Million

October 25th, 2016

2016 finally has a real reason to celebrate this weekend. Not every film topped expectations, but the top did enough to overcome any weakness at the bottom. The biggest hit of the week was Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween, which beat expectations with $28.50 million. Jack Reacher: Never Go Back had to settle for second place with $22.87 million, which is still better than most were predicting. Ouija: Origin of Evil did well for a movie that cost just $9 million to make, but the less said about the other two new releases, the better. Overall, the box office rose 26% from last week, reaching $124 million. More importantly, the box office was 18% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 extended its lead over 2015 at $8.93 billion to $8.53 billion. Having a $400 million cushion this late in the year is good news, even with The Force Awakens looming in the future. More...

Weekend Estimates: Jack Reacher No Match for Madea

October 23rd, 2016

Hollywood has a habit of underestimating Tyler Perry. When Diary of a Mad Black Woman opened back in 2005, it was expected to struggle to make the top 10, and yet finished top of the chart with a $21.9 million weekend. More than eleven years later, he, or perhaps more accurately, Madea, continues to defy tracking models and rack up wins at the box office, with Boo! A Madea Halloween set to top this weekend’s chart with a projected $27.6 million. That’s nearly $5 million better than the debut of Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, which Paramount has coming in at $23 million. More...

Friday Estimates: Madea Scares the Competition with $9.4 million

October 22nd, 2016

Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween beat expectations on Friday to earn first place at the box office with with $9.4 million. I was a little more bullish than most, but even I didn’t think it would finish in first place on Friday. This is not quite as much as Madea’s Big Happy Family made on its opening day in 2011, but it is enough to put the film on pace for $25 million. Its reviews have risen to 33% positive, which isn’t bad for a Madea movie, while it earned an A from CinemaScore, so the fans are clearly happy with the film. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Jack Reaches $1.33 million during Previews

October 21st, 2016

Jack Reacher: Never Go Back pulled in $1.33 million during previews, which is approximately inline with expectations. It is just a hair below the $1.35 million The Accountant earned last week. However, The Accountant also earned significantly better reviews than Never Go Back is earning and that will likely hurt its legs. That said, we predicted $21 million and that seems safe at the moment. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Reacher Reach the Top?

October 20th, 2016

It is a busy week as far as wide releases are concerned, although not as busy as we thought it would be at the beginning of the month, as I’m Not Ashamed has dropped to “select cities”. It still has a shot at the top ten, but a slim shot. The biggest release of the week is Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, as it is opening in an estimated 3,800 theaters. However, the buzz is weak and its reviews won’t help either. It will likely struggle to top $20 million. This gives Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween a shot at first place. The best new release of the week is Ouija: Origin of Evil. One would hope a horror film earning 80% positive reviews ten days before Halloween would at least have a shot at first place. We’ll see. Finally there’s Keeping Up with the Joneses. It’s bad and that’s all I need to say about that. There is good news. This weekend last year was a disaster. The biggest wide release was The Last Witch Hunter and it earned less than $11 million. The biggest film was The Martian, which earned under $16 million. We could have two films top $20 million, so 2016 should end the slump it has been in. More...

2016 Preview: October

October 1st, 2016

September is over and we should all be glad about that. Unless the final weekend brings a surprise $100 million hit or two, 2016’s lead over 2015 will shrink over the month. There were some bright spots, most notably Sully, which will be the biggest hit of the month. On the other hand, we had more outright bombs than even midlevel hits. Sadly, October isn’t much better. There are a couple of films that could be $100 million hits, but most of the films will struggle to become midlevel hits. Both Inferno and The Girl on the Train are aiming for $100 million. One of them might get there too. If both get there, then October will be seen as a success. By comparison, last October was led by The Martian; however, because of a misalignment in the calendar, The Martian’s opening weekend actually lines up with the final weekend in September. It had great legs, so that will help 2015 early in the month, but the rest of the month was terrible last year and I think 2016 will come out ahead as a result. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will 2014 Keep Speeding Along?

March 14th, 2014

Another week, another pair of wide releases. This time around, Need for Speed is competing with Tyler Perry's Single Mothers Club. Neither film is expected to be a huge hit, but Need for Speed has a better chance at earning first place. 300: Rise of an Empire does have a shot at repeating on top, but it could also collapse due to mixed reviews and direct competition. Last year, the box office was led by Oz the Great and Powerful with $41.25 million during its second weekend of release. No single film is going to come close to that figure this weekend. On the other hand, 2014 has better depth than 2013 had, so it could still come out on top. More...

2014 Preview: March

March 1st, 2014

2014 continued its strong run in February with The Lego Movie beating even the high end expectations and will become the first film released in 2014 to reach $200 million. March doesn't look as strong, as no film is on track to hit $200 million, but there are five films that have a chance at $100 million. Granted, not all of them will get there; in fact, there's a chance only one of them will get there. Divergent is the film I think has the best shot at the century club, but it could be joined by Mr. Peabody and Sherman, for instance, which is earning surprisingly strong reviews. Noah is a big-budget Bible epic and the studio has to be hoping for at least $100 million, but the buzz is quite negative and there have been reports of troubles behind-the-scenes. Last March was led by Oz The Great and Powerful, which pulled in more than $200 million domestically. I don't think any film opening this March will match that figure. In addition, The Croods and G.I. Joe: Retaliation also hit the $100 million milestone, while Olympus Has Fallen came very close. Granted, there were also some big bombs last March, like The Host, but even so, I think 2014 will lose ground in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Smaug Descends on Box Office

December 16th, 2013

It's a good news / bad news weekend at the box office. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug earned first place with ease earning the fourth biggest December opening weekend of all time. On the other hand, it was a little weaker than expected opening on the low end of predictions. Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas also underperformed by a significant degree, which didn't help the overall box office. The overall box office rose 59% to $147 million, which seems like a huge amount, till you realize last weekend was the weekend after Thanksgiving, which is historically one of the worst weekends of the year. If there wasn't a massive jump at the box office, it would have been fatal for the month. This was also higher than the same weekend last year, albeit by a smaller margin of 6%. Year-to-date, 2013 is still ahead of 2012, but by less than 0.5% at $9.90 million to $9.85 million. More...

2013 Preview: December

December 1st, 2013

We had some good news and some bad news in November. The bad news is the overall weakness at the box office continued and 2013 lost its lead over 2012. Strong runs by The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Frozen did help it bounce back in the end, but 2013 is still going to have a tough time topping 2012. Looking forward to December, we find about a dozen wide releases, sort of. There are several films that are opening in limited release that are expected to expand wide by the end of the month, but I'm not sure that will be the case for all of them. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug should be the easy winner this month and if it is a little lucky, it might even top its predecessor at the box office. There is a huge amount of hype surrounding Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues and it could double the first film's box office numbers. On the other hand, those two films might be the only two December wide releases to reach $100 million. There are a few that have the potential to get to the century mark, if they are big players during Awards Season. Obviously some of the films coming out this month will win awards, but there's already a lot of competition in theaters before the month begins. There were three $100 million movies last December, led by The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, so while it could be close, it looks like December will lose in the year-over-year comparison. This is really bad news, as 2013 can't afford to go out on a losing streak if it wants to top 2012. More...

Weekend Predictions: How Great Will the New Releases Be?

May 9th, 2013

Summer got off to a fantastic start last weekend, but sadly it is not going to continue this weekend. Neither The Great Gatsby nor Peeples have blockbuster potential. In fact, the pair combined won't match Iron Man 3's sophomore stint. This is similar to what happened last year, as Dark Shadows got crushed by The Avengers, which broke yet another record. Iron Man 3 won't be able to do the same this year, but we could have better depth. I'm not saying 2013 will win the weekend, but it won't as bad as it has been either. More...

2013 Preview: March

March 1st, 2013

February is over, and for the most part, we should be very happy it is done and buried. The biggest hit of the month turned out to be Identity Thief, which will cross $100 million shortly. There were also a couple of impressive midlevel hits, like Warm Bodies and Escape from Planet Earth, but for the most part, it was miss after miss. This is bad news for March, which is not only dealing with a slumping 2013 box office, but will be compared with a strong March of 2012. Last March started with The Lorax, which earned more than $200 million. There's a good chance no March release this year will reach this milestone. Last March was also the month The Hunger Games opened, which earned more than $400 million. There's a chance the top three films opening this month won't earn that much combined. 2013 is going to take a beating in the year-over-year comparison and it is already $100 million behind last year's pace. More...

Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: Alex Cross

February 3rd, 2013

Tyler Perry has been a money making machine, but while he, or more accurately, Madea, has a dedicated following, he hasn't been able to generate a lot of crossover appeal. Alex Cross was his first attempt to truly get away from his iconic character. It didn't go so well. The film opened in fifth place and quickly disappeared from there. Is is as bad as its box office numbers would indicate? Or does Tyler Perry just need more time to distance himself from Madea before moviegoers who don't like that character are willing to accept him in a role like this? More...

Note: This list contains actors who appeared in at least two movies in the franchise.

Note: This list contains people who contributed to at least two movies in the franchise.