Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Home Market Releases for January 31st, 2017

January 31st, 2017

It’s a slow week at the top, as there are no new releases that were hits in theaters. That doesn’t mean we have no contenders for Pick of the Week, just that they are smaller films or ones that struggled in theaters. Queen of Katwe is the best of this list and the Blu-ray is the Pick of the Week. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Arrival Won’t Get Shut Out

November 11th, 2016

Arrival earned an impressive $1.45 million during its previews last night. This is a little more than the $1.4 million Gravity earned this time in 2013. Granted, midnight shows were not as ubiquitous as they are now, but I still think this is a positive sign. Its reviews should help its legs and while our prediction was a little more bullish than most, I’m a little more confident now. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Nothing Strange about the Doctor’s $85.06 million Opening Weekend

November 7th, 2016

Doctor Strange’s opening weekend was off by 0.069% when compared to our prediction. I think that gives us reason to brag. Both Trolls and Hacksaw Ridge beat expectations by a relatively significant margin. Overall, the weekend box office rose 115% from last weekend to $191 million. That’s 18% more than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016’s lead over 2015 increased to 5.6% or $490 million at $9.28 billion to $8.79 billion. If 2016 can maintain this lead until Rogue One comes out, then 2016 will win in the end. More...

Weekend Estimates: Doctor Strange’s $85 Million Gives Industry a Much-Needed Boost

November 6th, 2016

After a couple of months of weak box office, and some very disappointing openings, Doctor Strange, Trolls and Hacksaw Ridge are each, in their own way, putting things back on track. Doctor Strange is grabbing the headlines of course, with an impressive $84,989,000 opening projected by Disney on Sunday morning. That’s almost identical to the opening weekend enjoyed by Thor: The Dark World on this weekend back in 2013, and comes without the benefit of being part of an established franchise (putting aside its place in the Marvel Cinematic Universe). More...

Friday Estimates: Doctor Strange Heals the Box Office with $32.56 million

November 5th, 2016

As expected, Doctor Strange dominated the Friday box office chart with $32.56 million. This is 19% higher than Spectre’s opening day was last year, which is great news. Granted, Doctor Strange had much better previews, so the actual 24-hour Friday numbers are much closer. On the other hand, Doctor Strange’s reviews remain 90% positive, while its CinemaScore is an impressive A. Spectre earned 65% positive reviews and an A- from CinemaScore. If the two films have the same internal multiplier, then Doctor Strange will open with $84 million. However, the Fanboy Effect will likely keep it to just above $80 million. This is still a great start and another smash hit from the Marvel Cinematic Universe. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Audiences Find Doctor Too Strange?

November 3rd, 2016

Doctor Strange is the latest installment in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and arguably the strangest one. It is widely expected to dominate the box office this weekend. Trolls is expected to open way back in second place, but still have a strong showing. The final wide release of the week is Hacksaw Ridge, which appears to be getting lost in the crowd. This weekend last year. Spectre and The Peanuts Movie had a one-two punch that earned a combined $115 million. I think Doctor Strange / Trolls will top that figure giving 2016 the win in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Madea puts out Inferno’s Fire earning $17.22 million

November 1st, 2016

Halloween helped boost Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween’s numbers over the weekend allowing it to earn first place with $17.22 million. This was much better than the $14.86 million Inferno opened with. While Halloween didn’t happen until Monday, the holiday still had a negative effect on the box office, as it fell 29% to just $88 million. That’s worse than anticipated. Compared to the same weekend last year, 2016 was better by 17%, but it’s hard to spin this as a real victory. Year-to-date, 2016’s lead over 2015 barely budged at $9.06 billion to $8.69 billion. That said, if 2016 can just maintain this lead till Rogue One debuts, then we should have at least some growth at the end of the year. More...

Weekend Estimates: Madea Defeats Feeble Inferno

October 30th, 2016

What was meant to be the weekend that the Fall Season started in earnest has turned into a damp squib, with Inferno not just failing to hit expectations, but not even topping the chart. With just $15 million expected this weekend, according to Sony’s Sunday morning projection, the franchise has shown a dismal downward trajectory at the domestic box office. The Da Vinci Code opened with $77 million in 2006; Angels & Demons debuted with $46 million in 2009; and now Inferno will earn less on its opening weekend than either of its predecessors made on their opening days.

The weak opening for Inferno follows a string of so-so results for films over the past couple of months. Perhaps the reality show that is our presidential election is dragging down theatrical business? More...

Friday Estimates: Inferno Generates Little Heat with $5.6 million

October 29th, 2016

As expected, Inferno earned first place on Friday. However, it was unexpectedly weak at just $5.6 million. Even strong legs over the weekend would result in an opening of just over $15 million. Given its reviews and its B+ rating from CinemaScore, it won’t have strong legs. Just over $14 million seems more likely at this point. Although it is aimed at a more mature crowd, so that could help. Plus, it is performing much better internationally, so it could break even regardless of how much it makes domestically. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Inferno Catch Fire over the Weekend?

October 27th, 2016

There’s only one wide release this week, Inferno, and it should have no trouble earning first place. On the other hand, it won’t come close to matching the other two films in the Da Vinci Code franchise. Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween earned first place last week, but Madea movies tend to have short legs, so it could see a large drop-off this weekend. Or perhaps Halloween will help it thrive. This weekend last year, Halloween landed on a Saturday. It comes as no surprise that this was a disaster for the box office. The “best” new release, Burnt opened outside of the top five with just $5 million. The two and a half wide releases earned a combined $10 million last year. This year, there’s a small chance Inferno will earn $10 million during its opening day. There’s almost no chance 2016 won’t crush 2015 in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Theater Averages: Moonlight Shines Bright With $100,519

October 25th, 2016

Moonlight not only earned the best theater average of the weekend at $100,519 in four theaters, but it had the best average for any film that opened in 2016. It wasn’t the only film to do well this week, as Michael Moore in TrumpLand earned an average of $25,100 in two theaters. The Handmaiden pulled in an average of $18,426 in five theaters, while the re-release of Tanpopo earned $16,410 in one. We are still not done, as the overall number one film, Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween, earned an average of $12,611. More...

Weekend Wrap-up: Madea Treats Herself to $28.50 Million

October 25th, 2016

2016 finally has a real reason to celebrate this weekend. Not every film topped expectations, but the top did enough to overcome any weakness at the bottom. The biggest hit of the week was Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween, which beat expectations with $28.50 million. Jack Reacher: Never Go Back had to settle for second place with $22.87 million, which is still better than most were predicting. Ouija: Origin of Evil did well for a movie that cost just $9 million to make, but the less said about the other two new releases, the better. Overall, the box office rose 26% from last week, reaching $124 million. More importantly, the box office was 18% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 extended its lead over 2015 at $8.93 billion to $8.53 billion. Having a $400 million cushion this late in the year is good news, even with The Force Awakens looming in the future. More...

Weekend Estimates: Jack Reacher No Match for Madea

October 23rd, 2016

Hollywood has a habit of underestimating Tyler Perry. When Diary of a Mad Black Woman opened back in 2005, it was expected to struggle to make the top 10, and yet finished top of the chart with a $21.9 million weekend. More than eleven years later, he, or perhaps more accurately, Madea, continues to defy tracking models and rack up wins at the box office, with Boo! A Madea Halloween set to top this weekend’s chart with a projected $27.6 million. That’s nearly $5 million better than the debut of Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, which Paramount has coming in at $23 million. More...

Friday Estimates: Madea Scares the Competition with $9.4 million

October 22nd, 2016

Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween beat expectations on Friday to earn first place at the box office with with $9.4 million. I was a little more bullish than most, but even I didn’t think it would finish in first place on Friday. This is not quite as much as Madea’s Big Happy Family made on its opening day in 2011, but it is enough to put the film on pace for $25 million. Its reviews have risen to 33% positive, which isn’t bad for a Madea movie, while it earned an A from CinemaScore, so the fans are clearly happy with the film. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Jack Reaches $1.33 million during Previews

October 21st, 2016

Jack Reacher: Never Go Back pulled in $1.33 million during previews, which is approximately inline with expectations. It is just a hair below the $1.35 million The Accountant earned last week. However, The Accountant also earned significantly better reviews than Never Go Back is earning and that will likely hurt its legs. That said, we predicted $21 million and that seems safe at the moment. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Reacher Reach the Top?

October 20th, 2016

It is a busy week as far as wide releases are concerned, although not as busy as we thought it would be at the beginning of the month, as I’m Not Ashamed has dropped to “select cities”. It still has a shot at the top ten, but a slim shot. The biggest release of the week is Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, as it is opening in an estimated 3,800 theaters. However, the buzz is weak and its reviews won’t help either. It will likely struggle to top $20 million. This gives Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween a shot at first place. The best new release of the week is Ouija: Origin of Evil. One would hope a horror film earning 80% positive reviews ten days before Halloween would at least have a shot at first place. We’ll see. Finally there’s Keeping Up with the Joneses. It’s bad and that’s all I need to say about that. There is good news. This weekend last year was a disaster. The biggest wide release was The Last Witch Hunter and it earned less than $11 million. The biggest film was The Martian, which earned under $16 million. We could have two films top $20 million, so 2016 should end the slump it has been in. More...

2016 Preview: October

October 1st, 2016

September is over and we should all be glad about that. Unless the final weekend brings a surprise $100 million hit or two, 2016’s lead over 2015 will shrink over the month. There were some bright spots, most notably Sully, which will be the biggest hit of the month. On the other hand, we had more outright bombs than even midlevel hits. Sadly, October isn’t much better. There are a couple of films that could be $100 million hits, but most of the films will struggle to become midlevel hits. Both Inferno and The Girl on the Train are aiming for $100 million. One of them might get there too. If both get there, then October will be seen as a success. By comparison, last October was led by The Martian; however, because of a misalignment in the calendar, The Martian’s opening weekend actually lines up with the final weekend in September. It had great legs, so that will help 2015 early in the month, but the rest of the month was terrible last year and I think 2016 will come out ahead as a result. More...

Tyler Perry's Boo! A Madea Halloween Trailer

July 23rd, 2016

Comedy written, directed by, and starring Tyler Perry opens October 21 ... Full Movie Details. More...