Weekend Estimates: Captain Marvel Starts Higher. Further. Faster.
March 10, 2019
Captain Marvel is opening with $153.0 million over the weekend, according to Disney’s estimate. This is on the high end of the studio’s projections based on Friday’s estimates. Additionally, it is more than the entire box office pulled in this weekend last year, as well as the third biggest March opening and the seventh biggest opening in the MCU. The film is already the biggest domestic hit of 2019 and the fifth-biggest hit worldwide. Its legs should be relatively long for a blockbuster, as it earned certified fresh reviews and a solid A from CinemaScore.
Captain Marvel’s international run got off to an even faster start with $302.0 million in 53 markets for a global opening weekend of $455.0 million. Its biggest market is China, where it is earning $89.3 million. This is the highest March opening in that market and the third-highest for the MCU. The film is also a monster hit in South Korea with $24.1 million during its full opening. Meanwhile, it cracked $10 million in the U.K. ($16.8 million); Brazil ($13.4 million); Mexico ($12.8 million); Australia ($10.7 million); and Indonesia ($10.1 million). The only market left for the film is Japan, but they won’t have to wait for long, as it opens there this coming weekend.
One final note, if you take into account how much Captain Marvel has made and where, then we can estimate Disney’s share of the box office so far and it is nearly $200 million. This is more than the film cost to make, so even if it just doubles its current box office by the end of its run, then it will make a healthy profit before its home market run. On the other hand, even if its legs are merely acceptable, it will crack $1 billion worldwide, marking it the first film released in 2019 to do so.
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World is getting hit harder than expected, falling more than 50% to an estimated $14.70 million for a three-week total of $119.66 million. That said, this is almost as much as it cost to make, so Universal should be very happy with this result.
Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral is matching expectations with an estimated weekend haul of $12.05 million and a two-week total of $45.88 million. The Madea franchise average is approximately $60 million and this film will have no trouble matching that.
The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part is also matching expectations with $3.83 million over the weekend for a running tally of $97.11 million after a month of release. The film is still struggling internationally with $3.9 million over the weekend for a total of $67.3 million so far. The only major market where it has been a hit is the U.K., where it has $21.7 million after a month of release. The film has yet to open in China and Australia and does so this weekend, but unless it is a monster hit in those territories, it won’t be able to turn things around.
Alita: Battle Angel is rounding out the top five with $3.2 million for a four-week total of $78.3 million. It has done well enough to save face, but I still think Fox will lose a not insignificant amount of money on this project.
On the limited release front, we have two widely different results to talk about. Babylon’s opening weekend is estimated at $20,096 in one theater. On the other extreme, The Kid is opening with $505,000 in 268 theaters, meaning it is opening below the Mendoza Line.
-5-News.jpg)
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Captain Marvel, The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part, Alita: Battle Angel, Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral, Babylon, The Kid, Madea, Marvel Cinematic Universe