Weekend Predictions: New Month, New Beginning?

February 28, 2019

Greta

2019 has been a terrible year and we really need things to turn around soon or there will be no chance for things to turn around by the end. Fortunately, things should turn around in March. Unfortunately, it won’t be this week. The two wide releases this week are Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral and Greta. The former is expected to become a midlevel hit. The latter might not top the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Black Panther continued to dominate the box office with $66.31 million. This is likely more than the combined final domestic box office numbers of the two wide releases. 2019 will lose the year-over-year comparison, again, but hopefully for the last time in several weeks.

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World opened faster than expected last weekend and if it shows any sign of long legs this weekend, it will really be a hit. There’s some good news here. The film’s reviews are 91% positive, it earned an A from CinemaScore, and there’s no direct competition. In fact, there’s barely any new competition at all. If it drops below $30 million this weekend, then I will be disappointed. It could earn as much as $35 million during this weekend. I’m going with $32 million during its sophomore stint.

Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral is the latest in the Madea franchise, a franchise that has been very steady at the box office. Most of the films have opened in the low to mid $20 million range and I don’t think this one will be an exception. There are still no reviews, which would normally be a bad sign, but this is common for this franchise. Plus, this franchise has been critic-proof so far. I’m going with a $22 million opening weekend and that would put it in a solid second place.

Alita: Battle Angel should be well back in third place with $7 million. This will be enough to push its running tally past $70 million, but the film will run out of steam before it hits $90 million domestically.

The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part should be next with just over $6 million. It will reach $100 million domestically, in a couple of weeks.

Greta is a psychological thriller that started out with solid reviews. Earlier this week, the film’s Tomatometer Score was over 75% positive, meaning it was on pace to earn the Certified Fresh label. However, it has since slipped, a lot, and just fell below the overall positive level. The buzz is also really quiet, so quiet that some think it won’t open in the top five. I think it will get there with between $5 million and $6 million, but if it stumbles even a little from this prediction, then Fighting With My Family or Isn’t It Romantic could land in the top five instead.

- Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral Comparisons
- Greta Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part, Alita: Battle Angel, Isn’t it Romantic, Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral, Fighting With My Family, Greta, Madea